It is now time to switch to a new Money AM football blog as the world cup is now over and we all look to the future.....World cup 2010 is over, Bravo Espana, and Forlan, once again and bring on the new season !.....I never expected the last thread to be such a success...thanks all.... so this new one might go on for years without the need to edit the title...we shall see...

Was going to ask you about him Dil, so thanks for that. Any rumours of potential signings at your end yet?

You men besides Messi , Ronaldo and Rooney ?

Yeah apparently we are signing everyone under the sun whether we can afford them or not.

Well that 25 million might buy 2 decent players, but how much more for replacing the other 9? -):

Need a right back desperately , cover at centre half , a midfeilder who'll stick a foot in , wide man and a target man.

Think I know roughly who we'll get for first two and will cost no more than about £4 million for both so £7 million each for the other 3 will be fine.

Lampard would be nice on a free.

And a new manager Dil? Apparently according to Dave Whelan Everton are not a big enough club for Martinez to consider. :O)

We think the same at Cardiff , why would Malky want to take a step backwards ? :-)

Keep praying mate :O)

We'll be ok even with me as manager :-)

I can think of a fat Spanish waiter who's looking for a job....

If it was anybody but Kenwright and his cronies looking to appoint a new manager I wouldn't be worried, fact that the bookies have Neil Lennon on the short list is really scary.

If Brighton don't secure promotion through the play-offs, CC, I wouldn't be surprised to see Everton approach Gus Poyet.

Would be good Hils, but then again Donald Duck would be better than Lennon.

lol

Most of their previous managers (in my lifetime) have been promoted from within so surely Stubbs got to be in with a shout Chris.

Hils , keep him you deserve each other after they way Di Matteo was treated

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Season 2012-13 » Opinion » Fan Articles

Don’t be so defensive about David Moyes, Everton!
By Mark Davidson :: 11/05/2013


15 Comments (»Last)
Looking at the history of the men who have been given the honour of guiding Everton Football Club through battle in the upper echelon of the English and European Leagues, some interesting numbers jump out.

David Moyes left us this week with a solid record, and a lot of people sorry to see him go – myself included. I got pretty nostalgic and saddened to hear that man who aptly named us “The People’s Club” was moving on – I’d always hoped that we could repay his grit and determination to make us succeed with a trophy, but it wasn’t to be. Perhaps if he had achieved some silverware, the temptation of Old Trafford might not have been as strong. However, I was also reminded of the countless times when I was cursing Mr Moyes for his baffling substitutions or starting line-ups and it made me wonder why, with such a gifted squad, we were unable to win anything under him.

The Club’s history of managers since the early 1960s tells us quite a lot, and one statistic in particular might shed some light on this matter.

Here is the history in chronological order, showing the trophy count and win percentage:




Season


Manager


League Titles


FA Cups


League Cups


Charity Shields


European Cups


Trophy Total


Win %




2002-2013


David Moyes


0


0


0


0


0


0


42.1




1998-2002


Walter Smith


0


0


0


0


0


0


32.4




1997-1998


Howard Kendall


0


0


0


0


0


0


26.2




1994-1997


Joe Royle


0


1


0


1


0


2


39.0




1994-1994


Mike Walker


0


0


0


0


0


0


17.0




1990-1993


Howard Kendall


0


0


0


0


0


0


38.9




1987-1990


Colin Harvey


0


0


0


1


0


1


42.4




1981-1987


Howard Kendall


2


1


0


3


1


7


54.1




1977-1981


Gordon Lee


0


0


0


0


0


0


39.3




1973-1977


Billy Bingham


0


0


0


0


0


0


37.2




1961-1973


Harry Catterick


2


1


0


2


0


5


46.5


When looking at the data in this manner, it shows that while David Moyes didn’t win any trophies during his time at Everton, he did have a pretty good win percentage of 42.1% (fourth highest). The three previous managers with higher win percentages all won trophies (even if it was just a Charity Shield, in the case of Colin Harvey) and even one manager with a slightly lower win percentage won two trophies (take a bow, Joe Royle). So what could possibly explain the fact that Moyes didn’t win anything in his eleven years at Goodison with this in mind?

I have a suggestion, and it I sincerely hope that this is factored in to the thinking of Bill Kenwright and the Board during their hunt for a replacement: playing mentality. The four managers who have won us some silverware since the 1960s were all attacking-minded players during their playing careers: attacking midfielders or forwards. Those who have failed to win any silverware were all previously defenders or goalkeepers. If we sort the above table first based on total number of trophies won and then on win percentage, a new pattern emerges.




Season


Manager


Former Playing
Position


League
Titles


FA Cups


League Cups


Charity Shields


European Cups


Trophy Total


Win %




1981-1987


Howard Kendall


Midfielder


2


1


0


3


1


7


54.1




1961-1973


Harry Catterick


Forward


2


1


0


2


0


5


46.5




1994-1997


Joe Royle


Forward


0


1


0


1


0


2


39.0




1987-1990


Colin Harvey


Midfielder


0


0


0


1


0


1


42.4




2002-2013


David Moyes


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


42.1




1977-1981


Gordon Lee


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


39.3




1990-1993


Howard Kendall


Midfielder


0


0


0


0


0


0


38.9




1973-1977


Billy Bingham


Forward


0


0


0


0


0


0


37.2




1998-2002


Walter Smith


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


32.4




1997-1998


Howard Kendall


Midfielder


0


0


0


0


0


0


26.2




1994-1994


Mike Walker


Goalkeeper


0


0


0


0


0


0


17.0


If we remove Howard Kendall’s second and (sigh) third return roles to the club, which many saw as being a desperate attempt to recapture the glory days of the mid/late 1980s, then – with a sole exception of Billy Bingham – the best times at Goodison have come with an attacking-minded manager in charge.




Season


Manager


Former Playing
Position


League
Titles


FA Cups


League Cups


Charity Shields


European Cups


Trophy Total


Win %




1981-1987


Howard Kendall


Midfielder


2


1


0


3


1


7


54.1




1961-1973


Harry Catterick


Forward


2


1


0


2


0


5


46.5




1994-1997


Joe Royle


Forward


0


1


0


1


0


2


39




1987-1990


Colin Harvey


Midfielder


0


0


0


1


0


1


42.4




2002-2013


David Moyes


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


42.1




1977-1981


Gordon Lee


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


39.3




1973-1977


Billy Bingham


Forward


0


0


0


0


0


0


37.2




1998-2002


Walter Smith


Defender


0


0


0


0


0


0


32.4




1994-1994


Mike Walker


Goalkeeper


0


0


0


0


0


0


17


Evertonians can regularly be accused of complaining about negative tactics put forth by the former man in charge. David Moyes, despite the adoration that he received from most quarters of The People’s Club, also earned himself the nickname “Dithering Dave”, in no small part due to his seeming inability to transform games through the timely introduction of effective substitutions. It was rare to see a potential goal scorer standing on the touchline when we were a goal down with ten minutes to play – more likely we’d see a central defender or holding midfielder gracing the hallowed Goodison turf in place of a forward.

Despite my admiration and overall sense that David Moyes did a fantastic job on an absolute pittance at Everton, I cannot help but wonder what might have been and what might yet be with a change of mentality around the place. Moyes no doubt took us up a notch from the glory (ahem) days of Walter Smith, Mike Walker, and Co but I am left in an uncertain middle ground: I am disappointed to see such a great bloke and class act leaving our great Club, but am desperately hoping that we bring in an attacking-minded manager to replace him.

If my suspicion is true, then the former playing positions of rumoured replacement managers might be quite telling as to what to expect.
•Malky Mackay: Defender
•Slaven Bilic: Defender
•Rafa Benitez (oh behave): Sweeper
•Jose Mourinho (dream on dreamers): Midfielder
•Roberto Martinez: Midfielder (defensive)
•Paul Lambert: Midfielder (defensive)
•Martin O’Neill: Midfielder
•Neil Lennon: Midfielder
•Michael Laudrup: Midfielder (attacking)
•Gianfranco Zola: Forward
•Mark Hughes: Forward
•Jurgen Klopp: Striker/Defender
•Roberto Di Matteo: Midfielder

So it seems that the majority of possible candidates are either former forwards or midfielders. Encouraging? Possibly so! Rule out the ludicrous (Rafa and Jose) and the defensive minded ones, and only consider attacking minded former players and we’re left with: Lennon, Laudrup, Zola, Hughes, Klopp, and Di Matteo.

I don’t think I’ve heard a single Evertonian think Lennon or Hughes are even worth mentioning, so we’re down to Laudrup, Zola, Klopp and Di Matteo – none of which are half-bad in my opinion. Of that list, I would love to see Gianfranco Zola at the helm – he is the perfect fit for Everton and brings the attacking mentality that we need to go up a gear. He just took Watford to third in the Championship with a 50% win percentage and the joint highest goal difference in that league (most goals scored out of all teams). He knows the English game inside out and backwards and would likely come cheaper than the rest, something that Bill Kenwright will no doubt be keen on.

Everton’s former great, Neville Southall, came out endorsing Zola today and I have to say I am completely on that bandwagon. Bring in Zola, Mr Kenwright!

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Peter Thistle
920 Posted 12/05/2013 at 03:29:33
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Well written piece. I've thought the same thing for a while but didn't have the stats to back it up. Defenders make boring managers.



Ernie Baywood
926 Posted 12/05/2013 at 03:35:36
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Definitely an interesting article and food for thought. Of course the stats don't overlay available funds and, if factored, might show that a defensive coach is cutting our cloth to suit.
But Zola, would be an interesting appointment. I'd rather we pick a manager who could be with us for the next 10 years and, for some reason, I don't see that with Zola.

On the other hand, we're a great club with a big fanbase, a decent squad, a high profile, and a top 6 finish.

An attractive 'name' might just convince players that we're a decent option?



John Gee
976 Posted 12/05/2013 at 06:07:17
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Good article. I'm a bit sceptical about the point your making although it does make perfect sense that a players career would influence his football philosophy when it came to managing a team. 'centre half is the hardest position to play' and all that.
On the basis of your argument Zola is a good shout, I've always liked him (who doesn't?). Another would be Hoddle. I've never really understood why he's been out if management for so long. Although I some times get the impression when listening to him on Sky that he's as mad as a march hare.



Bjørn-Ivar Pedersen
004 Posted 12/05/2013 at 07:51:05
Report abuse

Great article, this was some real interesting reading, and seeds for new thoughts.
My favorite to come in has been Bilic, since he have played for the club, but now am I not so sure anymore. My next favorite was Pereira, but he had only a amateur career as player and I was unsuccessful to find out what position he played in, but he have a good win % as a coach.
Zola could be a good try.



Rob Keys
022 Posted 12/05/2013 at 08:40:33
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Ardilles was a midfielder, but played suicidal football. Rijkaard is a defender / defensive mid, but did more than decent with holland and barca. George graham was a creative mid who played 1-0 winning but boring football.
Honestly, this kind of correlations have been taken apart so many times before.
There are two separate points here : winning football vs attractive football. Of which Moyes is slammed for both.
I believe that if Moyes had won the couple of trophies, the vitriol will be halved.



Kane Green
024 Posted 12/05/2013 at 08:39:32
Report abuse

I agree whole heartedly and would like to come at this from a different angle. The phrase 'a good point away from home' or similar is a common trope in football. Is it just me that often finds a point, well, pointless?
With 3 points for a win, a draw is closer to a defeat. The way a draw is often described as teams 'sharing the points' is a total deception. The points are shared with one thrown in the bin. Recent examples from the derbies springs to mind. It is commonly agreed that both the RS and us had perfectly good goals disallowed. We would both have been better off with those goals standing (despite home defeats to arch rivals). We would both have had 3 points rather than two.

And there's the thing. It is constantly mentioned how, with 6 defeats, only City and United have lost less than us. Who cares. It's not 'not losing' that counts. It's winning.

If we had an attack minded coach as advocated above and went for the jugular in most games what might we see? More handsome wins, and in all probability, more disastrous defeats which might leave us all fuming after being 2-0 up on 70 mins.

However, our current record stands at

W15 D15 L6. Points - 60

Looks good. 'Hard to Beat'. 'Only 6 defeats'. 'Only top two have lost less'.

But imagine 8 of those draws being defeats. Sounds awful doesn't it? Losing more than a third of all our games. Then imagine the other 7 draws becoming wins. Our record then looks like this:

W22 D0 L14. Points - 66.

Suddenly, we are one point away from the promised land of the Champions League places with two winnable fixtures to come (Chelsea hungover after Europa League victory).

I know this is hypothetical and draws are inevitable, but the fact remains that risking defeat to try and win is a much more proftable strategy in the long term, even though there will be far more defeats along the way





Derek Thomas
026 Posted 12/05/2013 at 08:49:59
Report abuse

A good job of chopping up the stats to get to what you want to say, but not the worst conclusion in the world.
We have to ask ourselves whats possible, whats probable, what (who ) we deffo DON'T want and who we could live with.

So have at it who DON'T WE WANT.

Round, Neville, MON, Bruce, Big Sam, McCarthy, Lennon, Makay, Megson...in fact, if we admit that Moyes was the best at percentage type KITAP1 we don't want any shade of any Moyes-lite type manager....been there done that got the best of the rest trophy.

We have 4mill per year to spend, Start at the top; hey special one 4mill a year to do the biz, sorry lads love to but I've just signed for chelsea....on to next on the list of none Moyes-lite coaches. It might take a while but 4mill per year will get you some one good.

You will only get the right answer if you ask the right question...that means not asking any nomark Moyes-lite candidates.

Bill says he wants to listen to the fans...yeah right. I don't think he'll listen to who we do want, but he may have no choice....if we shout loud enough, to listen to who we DON'T want

So, do we feel lucky, who can we live with



Gavin Ramejkis
027 Posted 12/05/2013 at 09:06:52
Report abuse

The stats in the article include cup games where Moyes never won a tap, take those out and his win rate of 40.3% is on a par with John Gregory's record and way below many other managers in EPL history including several labelled as failures.
I've got to agree with Kane regarding these draws, a simpler way to look at the results of ten games

10 draws a season gives a team 10 points
5 wins and 5 losses in the same games gives 15 points
4 wins and 6 losses still gives 12 points

The margin for error and a late last minute winner in games holding out for a draw with a siege against your goal is very thin and far too many games in Moyes' tenure we were subjected to just that; defending deep for large swathes of the game with the inevitable result. The Fulham game this season when we sat back and they got a last minute equaliser even had Jol perplexed saying he got an out of jail card having been under the cosh for most of the game, if the ball is in the opposition half and peppering their goal with shot after shot they are far less likely to be capable of mounting an attack.



Barry Rathbone
028 Posted 12/05/2013 at 09:07:14
Report abuse

Long winded way of blowing out Martinez.
Did you ever see him play?

Ever spoken to Wigan fans about his contribution to the "3 amigos"?

He was one of the 3 spanish players who transformed Wigan a player of real skill without the pace or strength to make it at the top level.

Has to be Martinez to remove the cloud of choking in the big games - stats are there to be manipulated. The greatest player EVER in English football until Ryan Giggs took his mantle IS ......... (DRUM ROLL PLEASE)

PHIL NEAL ! based on medals won stats of course.



Derek Thomas
030 Posted 12/05/2013 at 09:20:24
Report abuse

Kane and Gavin; spot on, been saying it for years ( oh yes I have ) We want a full strength manager not a Moyes-lite ( or like ) clone.
Bill; finger out, get it sorted.



Paul Ellam
068 Posted 12/05/2013 at 10:45:09
Report abuse

No Vitor Pereira on the list? He is my choice



James Stewart
084 Posted 12/05/2013 at 11:13:47
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Pereira or Billic for me. His Croatia team were not defensive at all.
Agree with the above points about draws. Fortune favours the brave and very rarely was that Moyes. Cautious to the extreme!

It will be Mackay or Martinez though so best pick a side



Peter Foy
099 Posted 12/05/2013 at 11:34:44
Report abuse

You don't have enough data to draw any meaningful conclusions, although I suspect that if you were to do something similar whilst using data from all the premier league clubs, you would probably get the same results.
The reason for this is basically what Kane says.



Bjørn-Ivar Pedersen
978 Posted 13/05/2013 at 21:30:14
Report abuse

I came to think of one guy, he was a central defender, but he is the only Norwegian manager with success abroad, in Belgium and Greece.
Trond Sollied, he have won his good share of silverware.
But he have a tendency to come on the edge with some of his players, he obviously hate primadonnas.
So it's not always truth to what mentioned in this article.....I just had to spin my head for a couple of days to run this in my memory.
So if we should go for any Norwegian manager, he is the guy, playing offensive counter attack football, in preferably a 433 formation.
Solskjær is struggling nowadays so he have more than enough to get his Molde on the right keel again, will be fun to see if he can manage that, and we can wonder if it they struggle because they sold Forren last winter.



Ross Edwards
982 Posted 13/05/2013 at 21:41:25
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So Bjorn, Mr Sollied is a bit like Gordon Lee then? They both don't like flair players.


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Stubbs in to second favourite now at many bookies , probably all you can afford :-)

Dil get a grip, 6th place in the Premiership gives EFC £xxxx compared to 1st place in Championship, we can afford trust me. What are the odds offered on Cardiff staying up next season? Answers on a postcard :O)

11/8 I think but I got a quid on us to win the league at 2500/1.

We got 25 million to spend , probably buy your squad for that :-)

Don't post here much but what about Arsenal miss out on 4th spot, whinger is sacked and in comes Matteo.
2517

Hope so George and Ramsey comes back home.