for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

Why has the tone turned so negative?

I would have thought that any bad news would have to be reported asap - so a delay could be because of good developments - nothing speads faster than bad news - let's all concentrate on the positive aspects of the company which after all is why we invested in them in the first place.

The news in July will finally let us know if the direction the company is going will be successful or not.

I do not think that now is the time for any more conjecture, positive or negative; having come this far it is prudent to just sit back, relax if you can, and wait for the interims, which will come with news of where the company stands. If you are of a really nervous disposition, or cannot afford to loose money in SEO then my advice would be to sell tomorrow, wait until the results are announced and then stand by your computer with your finger hovering above the buy button should you discover that selling was a mistake. I do not think that the present state of the poll justifies me selling my holding, I only have 82k shares, the products already in the bag are, in my opinion good enough to take this company forward. If the R&D division is operational ( I have not seen confirmation of this) then there should be a lot more in the pipeline; SEO are in the sector which is very much to the fore these days, their products are needed and WILL be brought to market one way or another, whether by themselves or through a takeover, who knows?

Is it true that all footballs used by England in World Cup matches degrade as quickly as the teams hopes of winning the Cup?!
kim

This is after all a high risk stock, and the potential rewards, for whcih we've all bought into, are very much still there and getting ever closer, though not as close as some would like.

Typically, "long" periods devoid of news tends to make some jittery.

As I stated earlier, if SEO is a leaky company, I'm surprised that the sp has not reacted significantly in tha last couple of weeks on the run-up to results, that is unless the leak was coincident with the general market decline where they could have adopted the approach of obscuring the bad news with the bigger market decline. Could very well have been the reason for the more acute impact on the sp.

I personally put it down to a more realistic assessment of the sp and hence a natural correction due to prevailing market conditions.

Oblo,

I'm interested in the evidence of leaks you presented to RD. Could you post a copy/summary?

I know that there may be one or two who post here who seem to have some degree of inside/priveledged information, but I can't believe that the impact of their knowledge on us poor saps is that significant.

The key factor affecting the PIs at the moment IMO is the lack of news and poor estimates on timescale to achieve certain milestones.

I'm certainly looking for some "real" positives within the results to retain my interest in this company.

gary,

happy to send you a copy privately if you 'switch on' the email option here on MAM, or are you on FYB (I can PM you)?

Oblo,

I believe its now setup.

Garyble

Gary,

sent.

Its worth remembering that we have been in a close period for some time, I think from the AGM on 2nd May to the announcment of interims given that the period covered is six months to 30th April. There has been one positive bit of news in this period in the announcement of FDA approval for WRAP 100 and we have also had the placement of ordinary shares at 8.1p effectively providing a support level for the sp. So we need to take the picture presented at the AGM by the Chairman (expanded by the CEO at the meeting but possibly less considered comment) and then look for progress in the interim period:

1. GREENSEAL and Starpol 'on the cusp' of full commercialisation and 'our major task is now the fulfilment of the commercial potential that these technologies have to offer'. Stanelco 'is in the highest level negotiation with some of the largest companies in the world - timescales are inevitably longer than working with smaller companies, but the desire in these organisations for our products is such ...'

2. ..the challenges that have been met and overcome (with commercialisation of GREENSEAL) set us in good stead to roll out this technology both in the UK and US. Over the long run we have the ability to make up any shortfall within our roll out programme. We continue to work with and be supported by ASDA in establishing this technology.' Goes on to comment on the revised temproary machine strategy and the application of the technology to the more straight-forward vertical-form-fill-seal packaging area (e.g. salad bags).

He goes on to speak of the progress with biodegradable products; the 'working with some of the world's leading organisations with a view to establishing micro manufacturing plants... '; the development of the relationship with Walmart; the agreement with Perseco with regard to 'vertical integration into their supply chain by establishing Micro Manufacturing Facilities'; agent agreements regarding FrogPack, Frog Mat and Pulsline.

I believe we need to recognise two things. First, this programme is long term and not primarily concerned with the fast buck. Two months is not a long time: there may be significant progress to announce in that time but, if not, it does not render the whole thing a cock up. Second, the 'value' of Stanelco and their intellectual property does not correspond to their market capitalisation at any point in time - all that represents is the collective view of a body of external people who are not party to the reality perceived by management and their market.

Its interesting that Stanelco is the most popular share (in terms of % of readers who hold) with Shares readers. Almost by definition, I suspect, these are predominantly people looking for a fast buck. The reality of the company emphasis on major long-term markets is almost diametrically opposed. Just look at the chart of the sp: I suggest this should have been steadily moving forward from the 8p market price 15 months ago to around 12p now - its been far too high and is now just too low. So what will happen at Interims? Scenario A says: some positive news, e.g. commercialisation of GREENSEAK or Perseco supplier contract and the sp roars away. Scenario B says: still working on the opportunities but no material progress and the sp crashes through the support level. What will have happened to the real value? - nothing really and sp should have remained steady around the 12p level.

Perhaps we investors in SEO need to grow up - or be replaced by those who are prepared to take the long term view.

Eric

Good post Eric

2.5 years (my holding) is certainly not short term, Eric, and others here have been in much longer.

I dont think you can blame investors for thinking too short a term when you look at the RNS's over the past two years. 200 ASDA conversions were as good as promised by now, promised by SEO management, not by us investors! We have judged the 'real value' based on, amongst other things, the noises made by SEO themselves in various RNS's.

There were a whole series of RNS's last year that, IMO, misled investors and caused us to overvalue the share. The RNS's always implied a quicker timetable than 'long term'.

I disagree with your final sentence - it isn't the investors who need to 'grow up', its the SEO management who have ramped the share and failed to deliver. Isn't it time we stopped making excuses for them?

At last someone not talking BOLLOCKS.
good post eric.

oblo. Happy with your comments and point of view - you're not included in any implied criticism of the short-term view. Yes, management definitely were too optimistic in terms of their timescale. My point is that this is recognised in Philip Lovegrove's statement - I am prepared to take this at face value and let matters unfold at a more pedestrian pace. We each need to ask ourselves whether our own mindset is in tune with the reality of Stenalco in their selected market. In going for such a large market they have, possibly unwittingly, given themselves a mountain to climb for which they have possibly just established base camp. The rewards are potentially great but the timescales inevitably long. My point is proved, I believe, by looking back at the considerable progress made in the last year but which almost looks like running fast to stand still. No doubt they will change gear sometime, hopefully not too far ahead, but I don't think I can read when and I wonder whether they can.

Eric

Well, I had a look at their report from 2003 where they talked about their plans to transform the business. 3 years down the line I think it's hard to criticise what has been achieved, granted, there is still alot to do, but when you look at where we are now as opposed to 3 years ago, you realise the real quality of the management of this company. Just my view of course.

Biscuit

Well, lets hope they change gear before the money runs out. Planning long-term is fine if you can get the backing long term. Too pedestrian a pace and backers will run away!

My entrance into this little debate was made because I was unimpressed with Duggans response (or total lack of) to my email once I had offered him evidence of 'leaks' before an RNS. You must make your own mind up and read into that what you will. It's certainly made me see the management in a different way.

This post is pure comedy, the friction between rhymans and Oilyboy.
Pinnacle, I dont seem to remember the tone of this thread ever having the justification to be positive, until something actually happens.

Thanks Eric and Oblo for provoking the timely reflection.

I'm curious as to what will happen when the exclusivity period runs out with ASDA, will the other supermarkets beat a path to SEO's door?????

gary: it would be helpful if one of our industry insiders could give an opinion on your question. ASDA will presumably be making a song and dance once the roll out is seriously under way. It may be that the others will have no real option but to follow.

I said that I did not think that now is the time for any more conjecture, but now I am going to do some more conjecturing! I have received a belated reply from Sylvia Leavey confirming that the calendar has been changed: I had pointed out that the website Home page was misleading at first glance, seeming to show that SEO signed a binding contract with ASDA in March this year and suggesting that it was made clearer. Sylvia made no comment about that - could it be that the page will be updated after the Interims are released and that it will give a list of contracts now signed including ASDA, WM, McD? Just a thought.
kim

Kim I fear you are clutching at straws ,but I hope not.

Golden straws Mad Pad!!
kim

Oblo,

Having failed to receive your e-mail re: Leaks, I've PM'd you on FYB and included my hotmail address.

Would greatly appreciate your info.

Garyble.