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PORTFOLIO 69 (69)     

Juzzle - 23 Jul 2017 10:51

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SPSY&Si

Share prices are all shown in pence. A website link for each company is given below. This is primarily a reference thread for myself. Discussion of an individual stock should ideally take place on its own existing discussion thread please, where its followers can readily find it.

The stocks displayed here are not recommendations - merely ones that I have chosen to run with. Most have already risen precariously, and some may collapse.

This is an aggressive portfolio being constructed between 10 July and 30 July 2017. On 10 July it comprised small stakes in four stocks I already owned (SOM,RST,TPF,ANII) representing in total 8.6%, and 91.4% cash. Stakes in those four were increased and a dozen other stocks bought. By 24 July, 65% stocks, 35% cash. Mostly held within a stockdealing ISA. The cash element is not earning interest; it will at times be used to temporarily boost stakes in one or other of the stocks or to buy another. I pay an ISA fee of £5 per quarter in total, and a brokerage fee of £9.90 per trade..

Initially I aim to run it for 5 months till 31 Dec 2017, by when I am hoping to be up 15%. This portfolio was funded by proceeds from the sale of a flat, the rent from which was generating 7%pa. The aim is to convincingly better that return. At 31 December I shall consider withdrawing a sum equivalent to what would have been 5 months rent, and to possibly do the same each six months thereafter (though I shall reassess that plan at Dec 31). Stocks that fail to maintain good performance will be reduced or ditched along the way (can't afford passengers) a few others might be bought. Fast ones that get too big might be topsliced to keep the portfolio in balance. I expect the initial setting up costs (brokerage fees on 16 stocks, and buy/sell price spreads of up to 4%) to be a drag on overall valuation in the opening weeks.



##################################################
PORTFOLIO 69 ENDS AT POST 191, DETAILING A GAIN OF 79.64% BETWEEN
JULY AND END-OF-2017. PART OF THE TOTAL HAS BEEN CASHED IN AND
WITHDRAWN. THE START OF PORTFOLIO 70, RUNNING 3 MONTHS FROM
START OF 2018, IS DETAILED IN POST 192
##################################################

cynic - 09 Dec 2017 08:36 - 175 of 222

IQE next figures not due until march, so unsure if or why there should be any trading statement - unless they tend to do so quarterly

had a little trading play with CVSG yesterday, which is currently nicely in the money .... i hold in my sipp anyway, so shall probably take profits quite quickly

out of interest, do you calculate your portfolio balance from cost price or current?

Juzzle - 10 Dec 2017 15:12 - 176 of 222

The percentage of total portfolio value that I'm referring to is using latest current value of holdings vs total current value (shareholdings plus cash content) of portfolio. Overall performance figure is percentage gain relative to total portfolio value when first established in July (no cash being added or withdrawn till 31 Dec)

IQE published a mid-December update in 2015 and 2016. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll do the same this year. I don't think they've said they will - which leaves them scope to do so or not do so. But if they have the choice to do so or not, and do so, I imagine that it will say summat they are happy to declare ;-)

Whether they issue an update or not, I am happy to hold. It is likely that my next exercise (a portfolio starting 1st January) will include a continuation of my IQE holding. I haven't yet decided whether to run the new portfolio till June 30 or April 5.

EDIT: For my own accounting purposes I am continuing to refer to closing this portfolio at 31 December. In reality of course the stockmarket ends 2017 a couple of days before that. And the portfoilo I intend running from 1st January will not trade till the day the 2018 market opens.

cynic - 12 Dec 2017 08:20 - 177 of 222

AHT
GREAT rns from this quarter has sent sp rocketing by 90p (4.5%)
glad i hold in sipp already and also bought a few to trade yesterday
a happy start to the day

Juzzle - 12 Dec 2017 16:16 - 178 of 222

Versarien taking a bit of a bashing this week. Same happened 3 weeks ago with no lasting effect. Sadly I have no spare cash to buy more at these lowered prices.

cynic - 13 Dec 2017 07:50 - 179 of 222

PURP
augurs well for the lttle treading position i opened a couple of days back ......

H1 Average Uk Income Per Instruction Up 14% To £1,138
Uk Revenue Guidance For Full Year Upgraded 5% From £80m To £84m
On-course To Achieve Full Year Revenue Guidance Of £12m In Australia
H1 Total Gross Profit 26.2 Million Pounds Versus 10.4 Million Pounds Year Ago
Uk Business Continues To Scale Up N H1, Reporting An Adjusted Ebitda Profit Of £4.7m (Fy17: £0.3m) And An Operating Profit Of £3.2m

Juzzle - 14 Dec 2017 12:13 - 180 of 222

XL Media (XLM) proving itself a good choice at present - up 50% in 2 months ;-)

Juzzle - 15 Dec 2017 08:00 - 181 of 222

In today's statement from Burford (BUR):
".. The performance to date of the funds business has exceeded our expectations .."

Juzzle - 15 Dec 2017 08:30 - 182 of 222

Still waiting for the IQE update .. not many days left this year:

This from their Nov 9 statement:
".. should the VCSEL ramp continue along its current growth curve
during this quarter, then there is potential for FY17 earnings to exceed
current expectations. The Board will continue to monitor current trading
and plans to provide a pre-close trading update no later than the end of
the year."

cynic - 15 Dec 2017 08:40 - 183 of 222

IQE
though i too would like to see a "jolly" rns from this quarter, that's more for the benefit of the tading position i have
i hold a great many more in my sipp which has a much longer view on life, so relatively unimportant

cynic - 15 Dec 2017 10:09 - 184 of 222

AHT
tempted to buy back in
i think the fall has been heavily overdone ..... furthermore the chart indicates that a support level may have been hit - eg level itself and also just touching 50 ema (or dma = much the same)

==============

put money with mouth for a modest number on my trading a/c at 1904

Juzzle - 15 Dec 2017 19:44 - 185 of 222

....... END-OF-WEEK-UPDATE
....... Friday 15 December

....... Portfolio now up 86.2%
since July

An 'orrible week in which my two heavily overweight holdings got bashed, knocking my portfolio back somewhat. Hey ho. That's the risk in an unbalanced mix. Not many trading days left in which to reclaim lost ground - but still an excellent return.

cynic - 16 Dec 2017 09:05 - 186 of 222

i think you're being hard on yourself, though because your portfolio is heavily weighted towards small and thus volatile shares, swings are always likely to be quite violent

Juzzle - 16 Dec 2017 18:38 - 187 of 222

Thank you. Luckily I'm so far ahead of the target I set myself, that even with further falls I expect to end the year with a happy gain ;-)

Juzzle - 20 Dec 2017 08:47 - 188 of 222

Taliesin Property Fund (TPF), a company in which I've held a small stake for years (share price doubling in 2 years), has been snapped up in an agreed takeover. One of several such takeovers taking place in the Berlin property market. And the directors have accepted a price which is much too low in my opinion. Ridiculously low. It does mean that my Portfolio 69 gets a small boost this morning on the announcement - but I would much rather have continued as a longterm holder. To avoid waiting for the transaction to go through in the new year (which would lock me into a rigid timetable) I have cashed in my holding, on the presumption that a counter bid is effectively ruled out.

EDIT: I think that leaves only one UK-listed company involved in Berlin property - Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSDL).

Juzzle - 20 Dec 2017 10:20 - 189 of 222

Having topped up my IQE stake in anticipation of a pre-Xmas trading update, it looks like I may as well have waited. I expect the share price to strengthen into the new year - but not in time to favour my Dec 31st portfolio outcome.

Juzzle - 22 Dec 2017 17:56 - 190 of 222

....... END-OF-WEEK-UPDATE
....... Friday 22 December

....... Portfolio now up 83%
since July

A poor week. Next week - the final week for this portfolio - is only a half week.

Juzzle - 30 Dec 2017 12:58 - 191 of 222


.

END-OF-2017-UPDATE Portfolio drifted back this month, but from its July start, to the end of 2017, the gain is 79.64%.

I am happy with that. I could have achieved a higher return if I had cashed in everything a few weeks early.

I am preparing a new portfolio exercise. I might make it a 12 month one - or possibly one for the first quarter (ending at end of tax year). Still weighing up timespans and targets. If it's a 12 month one my target is likely to be 20% by e/o 2018, as I don't think I can rely on the element of luck which did contribute to this big gain - and the stocks I would choose with a one-year timeframe in mind would be different from the racier ones I choose when doing what I've just done.

I see the FTSE-100 rose 8% in 2017. So to have achieved ten times that in less than half the time is pleasing. The Dow I think rose 24% this year (?). (I haven't looked at how those two indices did over the last 5 months of the year)

EDIT: January 2nd 2018. This morning I have withdrawn 13.35% of the final sum (= 23.97% of the sum I started with in July). What's left in will form the start of Portfolio 70. A starting sum 48.6% bigger than I started Portfolio 69

Juzzle - 02 Jan 2018 08:47 - 192 of 222


.
-----------------
PORTFOLIO 70
-----------------

PORTFOLIO 70 will run for 3 months, starting today. Target 12.5%.


At the moment it consists of holdings in IQE, VRS, XLM, KWS, and cash.

More detail later.

cynic - 02 Jan 2018 09:31 - 193 of 222

IMM may be worth your consideration ..... has had and continues to have a very good run

if you want to diversify into base metals - indications of strengthening world economies and china in particular, augurs well for the likes of KAZ (perhaps a bit heavy for you) and FXPO

Juzzle - 02 Jan 2018 13:37 - 194 of 222

Will take a look.
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