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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 19 Jun 2004 14:31 - 1763 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

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24-Jun

ITL

Trade Balance Non-EU (May)

7:30

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EUR372Mn

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Thu

ITL

Business Confidence (Jun)

7:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

94.2

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GBP

CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey

10:00

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USD

Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 19)

12:30

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336K

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< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Durable Goods Orders (May)

12:30

1.5%

-3.2%

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USD

New Home Sales (May)

14:00

1120K

1093K

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NZD

Gross Domestic Product (q/q) (Q1)

22:45

1.5%

0.6%

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JPY

Tokyo CPI (m/m) s.a. (Jun)

23:30

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-0.1%

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JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (m.m) s.a. (Jun)

23:30

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0%

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JPY

National Consumer Prices s.a. (May)

23:30

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-0.3%

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JPY

National CPI Ex Fresh Food (m/m) (May)

23:30

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-0.1%

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JPY

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

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NZD

Current Account (Q1)

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-NZD1.9Bn

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GBP

MPC members testify to TSC

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CAD

BoC Dodge speech (Paris)

 

 

 

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25-Jun

AUD

US Conference Board of Australia Leading Index

0:00

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Fri

DEM

IFO Industrial Survey (Business Climate)

8:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

96.1

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EUR

ECB EZ - Current Account s.a. (Apr)

8:00

9Bn

5.1Bn

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GBP

BBA Releases UK Mortgage Lending Figures

8:30

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EUR

Industrial New Orders s.a. (m/m) (Apr)

9:00

1.1%

1.5%

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CAD

Retail Sales (m/m) (Apr)

12:30

0.7%

1.2%

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CAD

Retail Sales Less Autos (m/m) (Apr)

12:30

0.2%

1.0%

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USD

GDP (Q1)

12:30

4.5%

4.4%

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USD

Personal Consumption (Q1)

12:30

3.9%

3.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

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USD

GDP Price Deflator (Q1)

12:30

2.6%

2.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

University of Michigan Confidence (Jun)

13:50

93

95.2

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USD

Existing Home Sales (May)

14:00

6.5Mn

6.64Mn

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Tellon - 19 Jun 2004 15:15 - 1764 of 11056

Looks like a week to go long NZD

hilary - 19 Jun 2004 15:28 - 1765 of 11056

Central Bank Watch - Monetary Policy Meetings in 2004 < ![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]> < ![endif]>

Major Central Banks Overview

Central Bank

Next Meeting

Likely Change

Last Change

Current Interest Rate

FED (Federal Reserve)

29/30 Jun, 2004

Eventual rate increase

25-Jun-03

1.0%

BOJ (Bank of Japan)

25 Jun, 2004

No rate change expected

12-Nov-03

0.001%

ECB (European Central Bank)

1 Jul, 2004

No rate change expected

5-June-03

2.0%

BOE (Bank of England)

7/8 Jul, 2004

Eventual rate increase

10 June 2004

4.5%

BOC (Bank of Canada)

20 Jul, 2004

N/K

8-June-04

2.00%

SNB (Swiss National Bank)

16 Sept, 2004

No rate change expected

18-06-2004

0.0/1.0%

Riksbank (Sweden Central Bank)

19 Aug, 2004

No rate change

28-April-04

2.00%

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)

6 Jul, 2004

Move likely later in year

03-Dec-03

5.25%

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Asia

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Hong Kong

2.50%

2.75%

31-May-04

Base Rate

India

4.50%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

21-Apr-04

Repo

Japan

0.001%

0.002%

12-Nov-03

O/N Call Rate

Philippines

9.00%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Apr-04

Repo Rate

Singapore

0.75%

0.69%

Jan-04

3M Interbank Rate

South Korea

3.77%

3.75%

10-Jun-04

O/N Call Rate

Taiwan

1.375%

1.625%

26-Jun-03

Discount Rate

Thailand

1.25%

1.25%

9-Jun-04

BOT 14 Day Repo

 

Europe

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Bulgaria

3.83%

2.55%

26-May-04

Base Rate

Czech Republic

2.0%

2.25%

31-Jul-03

2 Week Repo

Denmark

2.0%

2.5%

06-Jun-03

Discount Rate

Euroland

2.0%

2.5%

5-June-03

Main Refi Rate

Hungary

11.50%

12%

4-May-04

Base Rate

Israel

4.20%

4.40%

Jun-04

Short Term Lending Rate

Norway

1.75%

2.00%

12-Mar-04

Deposit rate

Poland

5.25%

5.50%

26-Jun-03

Reference Rate

Russia

14%

16%

14-Jan-04

Refinance Rate

Slovakia

5.00%

6.25%

29-Apr-04

2 Week Repo

Sweden

2.00%

2.50%

28-April-04

Repo Rate

Switzerland

0.0/1.0%

0.00/0.75%

18-06-2004

Libor target band

Turkey

22.0%

24.0%

17-Mar-04

O/N Borrowing

Ukraine

7%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

5-Dec-02

Discount Rate

United Kingdom

4.5%

4.0%

10 June 2004

Repo Rate

 

Latin America

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Brazil

15.79%

16%

Jun-04

SELIC O/N Rate - Target

Chile

1.81%

1.75%

9-Jun-04

Overnight Rate

Colombia

7.72%

7.70%

Mar-04

90-day Certificate of Deposit

Mexico

6.18%

6.00%

19-Apr-04

28 Day

Peru

1.75%

1.085%

8-Jan-04

Overnight Rate

Venezuela

12.0%

11.6%

28-May-04

3M Bill Rate

 

Middle East & Africa

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Egypt

7.207%

7.36%

8-Jan-04

182-day Treasury Bill

South Africa

8.00%

8.50%

8-Jun-04

Repo Rate

 

North America

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Canada

2.00%

2.00%

8-June-04

O/N Call Rate

United States

1.0%

1.25%

25-Jun-03

Federal Funds

 

Oceania

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Australia

5.25%

5.0%

03-Dec-03

Cash Rate

Indonesia

7.33%

7.42%

2-Jun-04

O/N Intervention Rate Rate

New Zealand

5.75%

5.50%

9-Jun-04

Cash Rate

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Tellon - 20 Jun 2004 20:32 - 1766 of 11056

Do you think they will raise US rates this month?

Stop Entry Order NZD/USD .6320 SL@ .6270

Resistance / Support Levels for GBP today.

| [ GBP/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE]--[RECOMMENDATION]----------| [POSITION]
: 1.8605(S) |daily high Apr 1----------|flat on a failure | [LONG at]
: 1.8505(S) |61.8% of 1.9140 - 1.7480 -|take profit, buy break | [1.8388]
: 1.8485(S) |daily high Jun 2----------|flat on a failure |
: 1.8445(M) |daily high Jun 10---------|flat on a failure |Open|18/06/04

: 1.8381 | Sunday 20:30 GMT |

: 1.8310(M) |hourly support Jun 18-----|sell stops below | |
: 1.8255(M) |pullback low Jun 18-------|buy a bounce |TGT |1.8500
: 1.8185(M) |61.8% of 1.8045 - 1.8405 -|sell a break below |Stop|1.8300
: 1.8045(M) |pullback low Jun 14-------|cover on a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 07:23 - 1767 of 11056

A bit uncertain this morning.

My indicators are telling me that I should be long greenback against the Swiss but short against the Euro and neutral against GBP. I'm inclined to lean towards Dollar bullishness in morning trade but will handsit until the picture's a bit clearer.

foale - 21 Jun 2004 08:43 - 1768 of 11056

Would you be bullish GBP over 1.8400 Hilary
Do you have a pivotal level for Stg

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 09:13 - 1769 of 11056

Haven't really thought about the broader picture, foale, although I'd say it probably needs a clear move above 1.85 before I'd start getting really excited. I've shortened my timeframe considerably over the last few weeks.

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 10:00 - 1770 of 11056

Well John Hardy is bearish on the greenback after the Friday trade deficit. Personally, I think he's discounting too much the prospect of a rise in US interest rates which could start to consume the markets this week.

Tellon - 21 Jun 2004 12:43 - 1771 of 11056

Short USD/JPY & Short EUR/USD so very confusing day..

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 12:46 - 1772 of 11056

Should still be long the Dollar, I suppose, but I've now been caught on a trailing stop against all 3 European majors today for a total of 94 pips so I'm going to call it a day rather than wait for a signal to reverse when there's no news in the market.

Hmmm. Dollar's falling hard since I've been typing.

Tellon - 21 Jun 2004 14:59 - 1773 of 11056

Both my postions are in profit.. Whats going on?

hilary - 22 Jun 2004 07:58 - 1774 of 11056

Been waiting this morning for the sharks to pull the Dollar rally back so I can hop on board. Seems like everyone's waiting for the same and it doesn't want to happen.

foale - 22 Jun 2004 12:17 - 1775 of 11056

Anyone here in , out, or just shaking it about !

Very temp long on Cable atm
made 60pips on the fall this am

Tellon - 22 Jun 2004 12:30 - 1776 of 11056

Im here.. Struggling.. Still short from earlier. Got a stop in at break even so could very well end up 0pips.

+25 atm

hodgins - 23 Jun 2004 07:24 - 1777 of 11056

long 1.8260.
Euro break above 1.2180 ?

hodgins - 23 Jun 2004 08:41 - 1778 of 11056

ouch and out

hilary - 23 Jun 2004 08:48 - 1779 of 11056

Cable seems to have come off particularly hard this morning compared to the other European majors. Just watching and waiting atm.

foale - 23 Jun 2004 08:49 - 1780 of 11056

bad luck Hodgins...Cable falling like a stone...

I have stayed short during this time...so happy to see it back at last nights levels...

But where now...18200 seems very pivotal atm

Is it B of E minutes at 9:30?

hilary - 23 Jun 2004 08:54 - 1781 of 11056

My best guess is back to around 18240/18250 then down again. Also watching the Euro and the Swiss.

foale - 23 Jun 2004 14:53 - 1782 of 11056

closed my small short at 1.8158 this am...now flat
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