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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 07:23 - 1767 of 11056

A bit uncertain this morning.

My indicators are telling me that I should be long greenback against the Swiss but short against the Euro and neutral against GBP. I'm inclined to lean towards Dollar bullishness in morning trade but will handsit until the picture's a bit clearer.

foale - 21 Jun 2004 08:43 - 1768 of 11056

Would you be bullish GBP over 1.8400 Hilary
Do you have a pivotal level for Stg

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 09:13 - 1769 of 11056

Haven't really thought about the broader picture, foale, although I'd say it probably needs a clear move above 1.85 before I'd start getting really excited. I've shortened my timeframe considerably over the last few weeks.

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 10:00 - 1770 of 11056

Well John Hardy is bearish on the greenback after the Friday trade deficit. Personally, I think he's discounting too much the prospect of a rise in US interest rates which could start to consume the markets this week.

Tellon - 21 Jun 2004 12:43 - 1771 of 11056

Short USD/JPY & Short EUR/USD so very confusing day..

hilary - 21 Jun 2004 12:46 - 1772 of 11056

Should still be long the Dollar, I suppose, but I've now been caught on a trailing stop against all 3 European majors today for a total of 94 pips so I'm going to call it a day rather than wait for a signal to reverse when there's no news in the market.

Hmmm. Dollar's falling hard since I've been typing.

Tellon - 21 Jun 2004 14:59 - 1773 of 11056

Both my postions are in profit.. Whats going on?

hilary - 22 Jun 2004 07:58 - 1774 of 11056

Been waiting this morning for the sharks to pull the Dollar rally back so I can hop on board. Seems like everyone's waiting for the same and it doesn't want to happen.

foale - 22 Jun 2004 12:17 - 1775 of 11056

Anyone here in , out, or just shaking it about !

Very temp long on Cable atm
made 60pips on the fall this am

Tellon - 22 Jun 2004 12:30 - 1776 of 11056

Im here.. Struggling.. Still short from earlier. Got a stop in at break even so could very well end up 0pips.

+25 atm

hodgins - 23 Jun 2004 07:24 - 1777 of 11056

long 1.8260.
Euro break above 1.2180 ?

hodgins - 23 Jun 2004 08:41 - 1778 of 11056

ouch and out

hilary - 23 Jun 2004 08:48 - 1779 of 11056

Cable seems to have come off particularly hard this morning compared to the other European majors. Just watching and waiting atm.

foale - 23 Jun 2004 08:49 - 1780 of 11056

bad luck Hodgins...Cable falling like a stone...

I have stayed short during this time...so happy to see it back at last nights levels...

But where now...18200 seems very pivotal atm

Is it B of E minutes at 9:30?

hilary - 23 Jun 2004 08:54 - 1781 of 11056

My best guess is back to around 18240/18250 then down again. Also watching the Euro and the Swiss.

foale - 23 Jun 2004 14:53 - 1782 of 11056

closed my small short at 1.8158 this am...now flat

hilary - 25 Jun 2004 09:04 - 1783 of 11056

I was a little bit slow on the uptake this morning.

I had something to do for an hour or so first thing, but at 7am I entered Cable and EUR/USD long with a stop on the overnight low. Ordinarily, I'd also leave an order to reverse the position on the break of the low but, because I had other things to do, I neglected to leave orders to reverse (and I also felt confident that I'd got the direction right!).

Hohumm. No more trades now this week for me. My little faux pas has marred what has otherwise been an excellent week during which I've 3.5 bagged my FX pot.

Beeblebrox - 25 Jun 2004 11:24 - 1784 of 11056

you, slow on the uptake, don't believe it......

and do you give lessons ?
need a refresher - gone a bit stale of late
though i did short cable last night 182.69. still running.
i was out when it hit 181.80, but would settle for that now...

hilary - 25 Jun 2004 13:57 - 1785 of 11056

What would you like a lesson in, Beebs?

:o)

Glad I stayed out now. Would have ended up being whipsawed for a bigger loss. It's got no Va Va Voom today.

hilary - 27 Jun 2004 09:13 - 1786 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

28-Jun

JPY

Vehicle Production (y/y) (May)

4:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

9.7%

Mon

DEM

GfK German Consumer Confidence Report

6:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

EZ M3 s.a. (y/y) (May)

8:00

5.4%

5.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

ITL

PPI (m/m) (May)

8:30

0.5%

0.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Personal Income (May)

12:30

0.5%

0.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Personal Spending (May)

12:30

0.8%

0.3%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

NZD

Building Permits (m/m) (May)

22:45

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-5.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Jobless Rate (May)

23:30

4.7%

4.7%

 

JPY

Industrial Production (m/m) (May)

23:50

2.5%

3.5%

29-Jun

AUD

Trade Balance (May)

1:30

-1810M

-1808M

Tue

NZD

M1 Money Supply (m/m) (May)

3:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-0.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

Business Confidence Indicator (Jun)

6:45

105

104

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

Production Outlook Indicator (Jun)

6:45

-3

-5

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

Producer Prices (m/m) (May)

6:50

0.4%

0.4%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

M4 Money Supply (m/m) (May)

8:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

0.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (May)

8:30

1.4B

1.3B

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun)

9:30

-2

-2

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Industrial Product Price (m/m) (May)

12:30

1.1%

0.8%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Raw Materials Price Index (m/m) (May)

12:30

2.5%

-0.2%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (Jun)

13:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-22%

 

USD

Consumer Confidence (Jun)

14:00

95.00

93.2

30-Jun

AUD

Reserves Bank Credit Measure (May)

1:30

1%

1.5%

Wed

JPY

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

4:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Housing Starts (y/y) (May)

5:00

0.2%

-4.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Construction Orders (y/y) (May)

5:00

1.2%

9.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

Consumer Confidence Indicator (Jun)

6:40

-21

-23

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

Unemployment Rate (May)

6:45

9.8%

9.8%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

FRF

GDP (q/q) (Q1)

6:50

0.8%

0.8%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

ITL

CPI (m/m) (Jun)

7:30

0.2%

0.2%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

ITL

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

8:30

8.5%

8.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

GDP (q/q) (Q1)

8:30

0.6%

0.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

Private Consumption (Q1)

8:30

0.9%

0.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

Government Spending (Q1)

8:30

0.7%

1.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

Current Account (Q1)

8:30

-7.2B

-5.2B

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Wednesday continued next post

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