This one hit the markets running today. Despite negative publicity it was well supported so I jumped in for a small holding--anyone else joining in?? I am hoping for a good run up before the shorters get going.

Fair value according to my valuation is 16p or lower. So, if you ask me if it would go lower than 28p, the answer is yes, it will, probably after a few profit warnings.

rpaco - that's almost a spread betting question. Are you playing the points game?
imo, with PRTY falling out of the FTSE, 28p is a distinct possibilty.

slkhlaw

would you care to share the details behind your fair value of 16p ?

The purpose of the dividend cancellation is not to "waste" over $100m on shareholders (the majority being the founders) now that the US cash flows have dried up. Better, they feel, to buy out at low prices the many distressed smaller operators who, along with their US players, will have a good database of European/Asian players up for grabs. Party will be aggressive in expanding market share now ex-USA, and there's a lot to go for. The smaller operators will be swallowed up big time by the big players.

This was always likely over time but it is now urgent. It wouldn't surprise me if UKBetting is one of the targets (given UKB's announcement). Party already have Gamebookers but an extension of their non-poker interests ex-USA is sensible.

Rumours of PRTY's demise is a touch premature methinks. The poker world ex-USA has a lot of expanding to do. Remember that the USA move is wholly rampant protectionism. All this morality talk is political hogwash.

Fair enough, but approx 85% of PRTY revenue derived from the USA. They now have to return the stake money of all of those customers, some winners, some losers.
That leaves PRTY with a customer base of approx 15% of the original. Others now look to be in a stronger position, but I agree, PRTY not dead yet.
I wonder if they are regretting parting company with Empire Online way back.

PRTY may not yet be dead, but why stay around until the vultures arrive?

you are a cynic, Cynic!

but is it not a fair observation?

Spot on for those not trapped in. Difficult to bear for those still holding.

On Working Lunch yesterday (wednesday), they gave PRTY a fair value of around 25p.

I don't hold this share.

A born cynic.

Thank goodness for that!

I'm commenting because I am interested to hear the "outsider's" viewpoint. By that I mean someone who maybe doesn't use the poker software. I play there occasionally and know the industry quite well, but have never owned any gaming shares including PRTY.

IMO Party will be aggressive with the rest of the world market and will make good money. However, the current share price is probably fair allowing even for that growth potential (ex-USA).

By the way, HTC, no-one is "trapped" in the share. They can sell and take the loss! Be glad it's a highly traded liquid share :)

It would seem that infringements of civil liberties are imposed by the republican Party in stopping gamblers transferring their funds through existing banking systems. Test cases by individuals against their banks will bedevil the new legislation for years. We await legal actions commencing as acts of gambling are NOT illegal at the point of sale. Transferring funds is NOT illegal at the point of contact between punter and bank.

Yes it will be the enforcement of the law which will prove a very big headache and if you have a comitted gambler who has reasonable assets, there are several tax havens outside US legislation offshore that could be used as middle a/cs - how can you stop funds passing from one a/c to another if they are both banks? The purpose of the funds once their dock outside the US are a different matter. If people want to get round this they will - look at prohibition, did it stop booze?

Harrycat
No I'v lost enought spread betting, I loose it in different ways now. I am waiting to see the bottom, of PRTY well to try and guess wher it is and then to buy SE38 SG Covered warrant. Unfortunately they dont do a Put warrant on PRTY. At least you can only loose what you put in, on any deal with CWs though the various parameters that decide the price do erode the value on a time basis.

On working lunch last week it was said 75% from USA not 85% hence my 28p guess. Have you studied the accounts? Though of course accounts can be made to look like anything you want.
I have about 6 different ways of determining the bottom but they all suffer from the same fault.

Off to watch working lunch now. cheers!

rpaco - I have seen figures of anything between 75% - 90% of PRTY exposure to the U.S., so it's difficult to make an accurate judgement. I would tend to assume a worst case scenario and work on 90%.
I would also be very tempted to just sit & watch for a while as far as PRTY is concerned. There are other safer stocks out there, even in the gaming sector.

Worth a read :

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_news/news_story/1446?class=PokerNews

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=FT&Date=20061006&ID=6084392

According to Jonathan M. Winer, a Washington attorney at Alston & Bird LLP who has closely monitored the WTO action, the legislation could well exacerbate the problems the US has already has with the WTO.

"To the extent that the legislation eliminates foreign competition for activities that remain lawful in the U.S., such as online betting on state-licensed horseracing, or state-licensed casino gambling that meets federal guidelines, there's no doubt it raises WTO issues," he said.