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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 22 May 2006 21:11 - 177 of 1564

Strewth ateeq .... if I was that clever I would not now be crying but rather leaping around having shorted everything! In truth, I really don't know, albeit that i said KAZ was overpriced some weeks back as copper was at ridiculous levels ... Wish I had followed my own advice but did not have the balls.

My gut feeling is that copper futures are still at silly levels, and any significant bounce in KAZ and similar is likely to be bear covering. Don't ask me whether you should buy in anticipation of making a quick profit on that.

ateeq180 - 22 May 2006 21:14 - 178 of 1564

I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT ITS DIFFICULT TO CALL THESE RIGHT AT THE MOMENT,WE SHALL ALL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE,THANKS FOR THE INPUT ANY WAY.

hlyeo98 - 22 May 2006 21:18 - 179 of 1564

I think the Dow is ending on the negative side...what a waste.

ateeq180 - 22 May 2006 21:19 - 180 of 1564

GIVEN UP.JUST PRAY FOR A BETTER DAY.TOMORROW

ateeq180 - 22 May 2006 21:21 - 181 of 1564

LAST 15 MINUTES CAN TURN THE DOW AROUND FINGERS CROSSED,EVEN FEW POINTS OF BLUE SOME TIMES MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE AT TIMES.

jameel06 - 22 May 2006 21:33 - 182 of 1564

Fingers cross, I hope the amrecians helps us out for a bloody change. !!!!!

maddoctor - 22 May 2006 21:50 - 183 of 1564

headline on CNN after the close "attempt to rally fails"

take care

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 22:17 - 184 of 1564

I heard on the radio that the sell off is being made worse by the volume of CFD's. You'll have to forgive my ignorance here, as I've never used CFD's (guess I'm too old school). As I understand it (experts please correct me), CFD's allow you to punch upto 10 times above your weight. In other words you can buy stock and just pay 10% of the cost (the margin ?). Apparently people that are long and suffering big losses on one stock, are selling other stock to cover their margin, presumably instead of selling both at a loss. Which is fine I guess, if you pick the right stock to hold. What worries me though is if one person is holding stock A, and selling stock B, in the hope that A will eventually rise. It goes without saying that somebody else could be doing the reverse, e.g holding B and selling A. In which case each of these traders is making things worse for the other. At what point would people be forced to sell everything they hold? Probably need a CFD expert here, but presumably if losses get too big, then the position will be closed, causing further falls? Does my head in thinking about it, but sounds like a big house of cards ready for a huge collapse too me.........

Strawbs.

jimmy b - 22 May 2006 22:46 - 185 of 1564

Strawbs ,its 10% on main market stocks and 20% or 25% on aim stocks ,this is a shorters paradise right now , which won't be helping those long .

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 22:51 - 186 of 1564

I see. Can you buy any stock on CFDs? I thought it could be bad with people holding just what they could afford, but if they can hold 4 or 5 times as much, then some of these stocks could be several times overvalued, and are only at the price they're at because of this gearing effect...... Can't be good if the falls continue...

Strawbs.

goldfinger - 23 May 2006 01:23 - 187 of 1564

In fact just over 50% of all stocks traded in any one day now is either CFDS or Spread Bets so you can see why corrections are much longer in duration than what used to be the norm pre 2000.

Add in margin calls and stop loss triggers phew.

Pommy - 23 May 2006 07:20 - 188 of 1564

Theyve also increased Margin conditions of metals trading whioch dont help when gold etc drops quickly.

HOWEVER, this is just a correction in the resources prices. Lets face it, with all of these natural resources its not getting cheaper to produce them and they arent becoming more plentiful!!!

And demand is increasing!

cynic - 23 May 2006 07:50 - 189 of 1564

Pommy - just because demand is (probably) incresing, does not explain the huge bubble in copper ..... check out near contract price with that in say 2 years, and there is no correlation at all!

Pommy - 23 May 2006 07:52 - 190 of 1564

the copper bubble was due to the chinese trader wasnt it
He made a huge mistake with a derivative trade and had to buy buy buy to close it!!

cynic - 23 May 2006 07:56 - 191 of 1564

No Pommy ... that bit is history from several months back ..... I don't have a chart for copper, but I think (know!) you will find that the price for short contract has continued to spiral ...... There is a misapprehension (imo) that demand for copper is far outstripping supply; the reality is very different, with the two being largely in step.

soul traders - 23 May 2006 08:49 - 192 of 1564

Morning all,

Cynic, just wanted to add to my point about methane, CO2, but not go too far off-thread on EME. Cows produce methane. When burned this turns into CO2 and water.

Methane is more greenhouse-effective than CO2.

My chemistry is correct but I did a bad job of explaining!

soul traders - 23 May 2006 08:52 - 193 of 1564

Anyway, never mind methane!!

I see green shoots this morning. Lots of things bouncing - can this go on?

ellio - 23 May 2006 09:14 - 194 of 1564

I doubt it. The market has gone into frenzy mode, up massivelly one day, down the next, have seen it before, during tech phase.

If your happy to ride it out fine, if not sell into the rallys. Today is an up day, I don't know what will happen tomorrow? It's a joke I know because fundamentally everything is sound, oil still way over $ 60 and more and more profits announcements meeting expectations, everything in the garden is rosy, commoditiy prces being maintained to some extent, but the market has gone skitso and that is a problem in the short term, maybe until sept then the trend may emerge, at the moment knowbody has the foggiest and I mean knowbody it is all guess work and short term traders/shorters have the upper hand unfortunately.

soul traders - 23 May 2006 09:18 - 195 of 1564

Yep - am inclined to sit and wait a bit longer, hoping for bargains towards the end of the summer.

ellio - 23 May 2006 10:05 - 196 of 1564

Agreed, good luck.

The traders/shorters hedgers have ramped commodities, now they are creating turmoil and making money in and out to the down and upside, they are the evil part of investing and cause these herd behaviours! elsewhere mm's are marking prices down and so the whole thing goes in waves, down and down until the bulls can get back hold of it, may take a while!
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