rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Well predicted PTH spot on Now please tell me the Ftse'sgoing to fall Mon.

perhaps the older one gets, and i am now close to senility, the more paranoid one gets, for i really cannot belive that we (the markets) are remotely out of the woods yet.

below i print off an extract from comment elsewhere .....



Analysts believe the performance of financial companies -- widely believed to be the group that leads markets higher -- will be a key to whether investors can hold on to their optimism.....

'I think the market is still very fragile, especially because people feel there are hidden depth charges on the books of financials,' said Stephen Massocca, co-Chief Executive of Pacific Growth Equities, a San Francisco-based investment bank. 'Right now, people are relieved that the crisis appears to be over, and at the minimum, we stopped draining.'

He and others might get an answer once some of the nation's biggest financial companies begin to report earnings later this month -- and, more important, provide outlooks for the rest of the year. That starts April 16, when JPMorgan reports first-quarter results, followed by Merrill Lynch & Co. the following day and Citigroup Inc. the next.

'Further collapse of the market could depend on them,' Massocca said.

It's very interesting, Cynic, that we appear to have read the same article (link below for those who would like to read it all). But while you have looked for the negatives, I have looked for signs of optimism:

"Certainly, worries about the economy and further calamities striking the world's investment banks haven't evaporated. What has changed is the way investors are looking at the market -- simply, that stocks are more likely to go up than continue their precipitous declines -- and that allowed the stocks to hold on to most of their gains this past week.

"After the Dow Jones industrials rose 391 points on Tuesday alone, the stock market's best-known indicator ended the week up 393 points.'Sentiment is the whole story, and what we're seeing is an improvement in sentiment,' said Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities. 'I believe the market has bottomed, and eventually all the problems are baked into stocks and we can start looking beyond the valley to the peaks ahead.' "

Link to the article I read:
Wall Street undergoes big mood change

confess that i may have totally misread SOLA and may therefore shut that short, though i know that as soon as i do so, Wall Street will have a stinking day.

one of my concerns is that Dow is certainly having considerable problems breaking up past 12700, though conversely, having threatened to dive down to 12500 (or even below) yesterday, it recovered and managaed to struggle back above 12600 ..... even if we do get an upward break, it is unlikely that 12800/12850 will be easily breached, and thus there could easily be a reaction of say 300 points, though that in itself will not break the upward(?) channel

Peter ..... get back from the golf course and gives us your shilling's worth (more valuable that twopence!)

If FTSE reaches 6000 I would be very surprised, but it's not far off. I just can't see we are out of the credit crunch clutches just yet. Reading the IMF report on UK house prises against the economic health, states that prices are at least 30% over valued. In early 2007 the IMF said that USA house prices were 10% overvalued, look at what happened next.

The housing market have been looking for support that the mortgage lenders will give, but the news last week from First Direct, Nationwide and many others, which boils down too deterring new mortgage customers at the least, to no longer taking on new customers at worst is very bad news.

Sorry to sound so gloomy, I know the markets look forward with a longer time frame, and some commentators are suggesting that we have seen the bottom of this cycle, with markets having already discounted for the worst, but I just can't see that. Maybe, just maybe the FED have done enough to help the US economy ride this one out, but the Bank of England certainly haven't, and even now I can only see a 0.25bhp cut this week.

Whatever happens this week, good luck and have a profitable one.

I probably won't be on the long side, but on the other hand ?

Will do some more searching over the weekend re TA of the DOW. One thing is certain the 12780 (ish) level has proven to be a considerable obstacle for a while now, I haven't got a chart open in front of me but this has proven to be solid resistance on three or four occasions thus far. My own gut feeling for next week is that the DOW will have a down week, bad news after bad news from the US, but the one caveat that sticks in my mind is that the markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than I can remain solvent. I will chase up the TA, but I did yesterday and there didn't appear to be a straight answer; I guess my advice is not to trade what you think but trade what you see. If we see a push above 12780, the DOW has just gotta be a long.

And what about the Ftse?

as Dow does, so does FTSE follow ...... city opinion is certainly very split as to whether or not we have seen the bottom of the cycle ......

my view is not, for though the market has suddenly seen fit to ignore a week of horrid news, i find it unbelievable that it can continue to do so ......

that said, the demand for basic chemicals and other commodities appears to continue unabated in China ..... if that is so, and the Fed's "sweeties" do actually start to revive consumer confidence, then just perhaps the optimists will be proven right.

There is an Ukranian expression that says : A pessimist is an informed optimist !

and there's a Mycranium one that says: My brain hurts!

There is also the question of sell in may and go away...will it happen again this year ?...I'm thinking that it will not happen or that the effect will be minimal due to already depressed share prices !

i know nothing at all any more ..... with that in mind, i shall try not to get itchy fingers and hang on to (nearly) all stocks in my current portfolio ..... no doubt i shall play the indices, but hope that common sense will prevail and that will only be in small amounts.

my gut feeling for monday is that the markets will fall

I also believe we have not reached the bottom yet but maybe that's wishful thinking as I've still got a short open on the Ftse. Hope you're right Cynic.

I have re-drawn my chart this morning and although there is definitely 'price' resistance around 12780, my falling trendline from the all time high would seem to indicate 13000. A breach of this level should signal a resumption of the overall uptrend. There is also a possibility of a slight negative divergence on the Daily MACD which may suggest that this particular rally is running out of steam. Guess we will know more tomorrow.

hi peter ... sorry i could not join u on msn, but for some reason the system would not allow it

Still Consolidating..
Dow trades sideways throughout session, remains within tight consolidation range.

From prior commentary, "...The range spans from 12,500 to 12,700 and could continue to widen out as it resumes development. Eventually, a breakout from this consolidation could spark a move of about 350 points..."
The Dow traded quietly sideways throughout the session today, as the index pushed back and forth within the boundaries of the clear consolidation that has formed from 12,500 to 12,700, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index closed the day with a mild loss of just 17 points, but is likely to get a big breakout from the consolidation early next week.

The Daily and 60 Minute Chart shows the Dow has traded quietly sideways the last three day after reaching the top of the large trading range at 12,600. This behavior is typical of continued strength ahead. However, a breakout in either direction could fuel nice movement of about 350 points.

Keep an eye on 12,700, as a breakout this zone will likely spark a test of the major 12,800 fulcrum. This is the major 'line in the sand' that the markets are watching. Otherwise, a break below 12,500 will push the index back toward the 12,200 level.

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day beneath the 12,700 level, which is a clear resistance level in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this zone closely for early direction Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 12,725 up, and 12,500 down; using 25 point stops.

Having attempted some lateral thinking today, my opinion is now biased towards further strength in the indicies this week, which just goes to show that it's easy to change one's mind during this period of uncertaintity :)

Spitfire prediction after after 5 or 6 glasses of J P Chenet, DOW will struggle to breach 12700, FTSE will rise short term Monday to 6050, at which point I will short with very long stop all the way down to 5343. Tuesday FTSE wiil fall to 5743, then Wednesday continue down to 5643, at which time Man Utd will proceed to semi finals of champions league.

I may have changed my mind in the morning, maybe I wont post this after all, where's the cancel button, post damn too late.

Thanks for all your pearls of wisdom! Can't decide which way to go so will sit tight for a while

difficult innit!