Just bought this at 64.75 pence,feel free to comment..

On 14 March 05
Avis brand owner Cendant announced integration of their Avis ( non Europe and Asia ) car rental business into their global Hotel and Vacations businesses
The integration is being done to generate cost efficiencies and provide a platform for future global synergies
As a direct consequence the Avis CEO and Cendant representative on the Avis Europe Kevin Sheehan has left Cendant and resigned from the AVE Board
Meanwhile AVE majority owner D`Ieteren has acquired a US windscreen replacement business thru their global subsidiary Belron
Belron`s new acquisition would benefit from closer links with Cendant`s Avis US business

Since this March press release by Cendant
And
Looked at from a PR standpoint
some rather obvious and positive stock market announcements seem to have been deliberately suppressed by all 3 parties
D`Ieteren
has not commented on the potential to link more closely with Cendant in the US
One would have thought this was on obvious synergy to mention after the acquisition was done and dusted
Neither Cendant nor AVE
have commented on whether the Cendant integration exercise will be extended to identify cost savings to both parties in Europe and Asia
And Kevin Sheehan
has not been replaced on the AVE Board
Why ?
When you consider that
D`Ieteren own around 60%
Around 15 % of AVE is the hands of Fidelity and Franklin
And at least 10% of the remainder is in the hands of 4 or 5 big buyers who wish to remain anonymous
Large parcels exceeding 1m shares were changing hands at 70 to 72p just before the 25 May EGM when one could reasonably expect some nervous sellers to be about and MMs to hoover up at Dyson pace on behalf of Big Buyers
Since then the sp has drifted downwards with MMs providing regular stimulus by trading 100 to 200 shares at 5min interval on days when little business is being transacted by real people The current sp of around 64p is therefore artificial
The obvious conclusion to draw is that good news about AVE which could tend to raise the sp is being deliberately avoided while news about tough trading conditions etc is being deliberately played up in order to let these greedy big buyers acquire the last 15% thru an hovering up exercise worked in conjunction with the MMs
Hence there is a Cendant bid in the pipeline with only the timing in doubt

HELL OF A POST...you have certainly been working on this hard.

i will do a bit of digging as well...

Well well

Deutsche Bank AG have declared a 3.43% interest
with Fidelity holding 9.30%
Franklin holding 7.71%
D`Ieteren holding 59.60%
Total 80.04%
80% of the declared ownership is now in the hands of 4 owners

Allowing 4m shares for share options
this leaves a free market of not more than 112m shares
And
given the sheer volume of tranactions exceeding 1M shares in recent months
A minimum of at least a further 60M shares are being held by at least 4 big buyers none of whom hold more than the the 3% threshold of 17.6m
Probably MMs holding to sell on to one of the big 4 at an agreed commission
What does this mean for the little man
Hang on in there the sp is going to rocket in the next 6m

you can't argue with the maths...

my concern is that there is a seller out there who may keep reloading. will watch and maybe buy more....

Prop

Can`t believe any of the current big 4 owners would seriously contemplate selling and reloading AVE in a big way

D`Ieteren holdings were bought at an average of around 100p-110p
Fidelity holdings were bought at an average of around 80p
Franklin holdings were bought at an average of around 87p
Deutche Bank holdings were bought at an average of around 65p to 70p


These holdings represent 80 % ownership
Hence
1% of AVE stock sold by these guys is equivalent to 4% of the residual free market
(and that assumes there are no other big owners .. which is very unlikely)
They therefore can`t dump shares without an sp catastrophe and a big loss
Indeed this is another reason why there must be a bid is in the offing
Fidelity , Franklin and now Deutche Bank have bought into AVE thru MMs who are quite happy to hoover up small parcels on their behalf for an agreed commission
Thats why every 10 days or so you see big parcels of exceeding 200000 shares being processed as deals when they are actually transfers between the MM and his principal
And
These movements are happening without any noticeable change in the bid / offer price
So
To sell and reload requires a MM do the reverse

ie sell off massive amounts of stock in dribs and drabs without seriously affecting the sp
This cant happen because if you think about it
The MMs can only hold manipulate the sp if they are in a position to buy and sell in roughly equal volumes
They can only buy if the have the security of a Principal`s order behind them
If they can only sell the sp will collapse

the thing is though that this is an order driven stock and not MM controlled so you are right to a point. at the moment there is a seller reloading 50/- at the offer when lifted (obviously not today, too thin!)

of course there may be orders out there being fed into the mkt.

saying this i agree that something is going on and i suspect that the stock is being held down (in lots of 50/- which is insignificant) to keep control of the price so a buyout/takeover/MBO may be at the 80 ish level as opposed to 100p.

interesting conspirital stuff with more than a hint of the truth!

There have been a fair number ( 20 to 30 ) days since Jan 05 when there has been an "order driven" trade ( buys and sells) of 100 sometimes 200 shares every 5 mins all day
80% of the trades have been tiny on these days
When you look at the Broker codes responsible for these tiny deals they are the same people more or less who jump in now and then with deals exceeding 500000 and sometimes 1M AVE shares
From a dealing cost standpoint these tiny trades are only cost effective if they are broker to broker where the commission by agreement will be non existent This is despite being recorded as "order driven" trades
Why are they doing this ?
It may simply be to steer the sp into a range where they can transfer accumulated stock to their Principal at a previously agreed price pretending it is a real time deal when in fact it is prearranged
In any event
when 80% of the Co is in the hands of 4 owners the sp of the remaining 20% is irrelevant when a bid is being contemplated
I can`t see D`Ieteren selling AVE at a loss although I would expect a side deal benfitting the Belron acquisition in the USA

The weaknesses in the D`Ieteren position is that they have
used up 19 yrs of their 50 yr licence to the Avis Brand and probably need to renegotiate an extension over the next 5 yrs or so
They certainly could not afford to be providing working capital indefinitely to a business which is not self funding
AVE need restructured to reduce its cost base This is possible if aligned to other global Cendant businesses but probably impossible if aligned to other global D`Ieteren businesses
My money is on 100p to 110p some time after the Share Premium resolution is endorsed by the courts in early July 05

Morning nice to see blue numbers at ave.

From Avis Europe Website

Shareholder Composition

Shareholder Composition for Avis Europe as at February 2005.

Majority Shareholder 59.7

Institutional Holding 33.2

Private Individuals 3.5

Directorial Holding 0.2

Other 3.4

Total 100.0 %

Since Feb 2005 Fidelity have added 1.3% , Templeton 0.7% and Deutche Bank probably around 1% These owners now account for 19% out of 36% of the business
held by Institutions
Also if the Institutions have been of the same mind since Jan2005 then these holidings additions have come at the expense of holdings by "private individuals" and "other" suggesting that these now total not more than 5% which will include employee share schemes

Assuming the Institutions are in "buying" not "selling" mode the "free market"
is now not more than 4 to 4.5% or 25M to 30M shares in total
This represents a chronic stock shortage and may explain why a 0.25p sp price increase can be caused by a buy order for 20000 worth of shares

i agree, there is a seller around that may be overhanging the stock a little. i would love to have a go and try and lift him.

Prop
If you feel brave

and trust your fingers to press the right button...........

Place a buy order for 500000 shares just to see what the sp would be .........
I betcha it would be over 70p
Then hit the cancel button immediately.......

no need to committ, just ask your broker for a price and size! (or if prefer ask him for a price in a million).

my broker is away this week and if i ask GNI or IG they will be grossly uncompetitive. who do you use and how well do you know your broker?

will see about this tomorrow

Prop
Not well enough to get a quote just for interest sake......

understood. leave it with me.

We know that
59.6% of AVE shares are owned by D`Ieteren
And
Institutions holdings were33% in Feb 2005
And
A further 3.6% of shares are not in play due to share schemes and options for employees and Directors
Then
The free market in AVE shares was not more than 3.8% in Feb 2005

Lets assume say 2% of this 3.8% was traded since Feb2005 which is probably an overestimate
Then since
Transactions from Feb2005 to 13 June 2005 accounted for 13.2%
This suggests that around 11% of the volume during this period was accounted for by Institutions trading with each other probably coupled with massive amounts of double counting as MMs bought from one Institution and sold to another Institution
None of the big sells or buys seemed to have any effect on the sp for the small trades which immediately followed these big deals
During this period the sp rose from 60.25p on 1 March 2005 to 73p and fell back to
63.75p on 13 June 2005
The key drivers over the period was anticipation of good news on 25 May and subsequent disappointment when the outlook was bearish

This suggests that in the absence of hard news the future sp for AVE is likely to hover around the present level of 62p to 64p
Since
Institutions that want more stock have to avoid the free market since there isnt enough volume to meet demandalthough they will probably have standing orders
with MMs for whatever stock they can buy at an agreed mark up

Institutions that want to dump stock must avoid the free market since the impact on the sp would be catastrophic as happened in Dec 04 They need to negotiate a sale with other Institutions
3 The only consistent day to day buyers in the free market are the MMs with competition on a random basis from small shareholders
4 The only consistent day to day sellers in the free market are small shareholders
replaced by MMs when they see a shortage of sellers starting to impact the price
The good news is that at least 3 Institutions two US and one German believe AVE is a good investment worth increasing their holdings despite the bearish outlook

65 bid

Prop
Interesting
Either a MM is dealing on own acct and has accumulated enough stock for a quick profit
Or
Broker has phoned around and found a Fund wanting to take some profit
since most big buys since 4 Jan were below 64p
Also
it suggests
The 3 named Funds are unwilling to pay top dollar at the moment

seller defiantely around. bases are loaded at 64, 64.25, 64.5 and 65.

If big seller is indeed a fund reducing its holding at a profit or break even
...........sp ought to bottom out at 61/62p
.....and rise thereafter

one hopes but we need to find a clearing level for the stock. if that level is 61/2 then great. it may however be lower. this is a classic overhang order and you are right, once clear these should bounce strongly.