Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Fred
I have seen that article (published in the Sunday Telegraph).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9434400/Slash-interest-rates-to-0-per-cent-Bank-of-England-told.html

In 1975 there was an amnedment to the Industry Act of that year called the Bray amendment, which required the Treasury to make its model available for public use in a computer readable form. One of the users is indead the Item Club (Independent Treasury Modelling Group). The trouble is that the model made available is one to two years out of date and the Treasury gives no indication of how the results are adjusted using judgement.

In fact the treasury does not have a model at all these days as responsibility for it and the model was given over to the Office of Budget Responsibilty some time ago.

I have had some dealings with the OBR and the whole government macro economic modelling process over the last year or so in connection with some research.

The article is also wrong in that there are plenty of groups using the model. The Economist and the University of Warwick also use it.

Thanks chucks, thisb sditevis just about labour. Try again, been a heavy night :-))

This site is a labour site only, with no other contributers on here.

Are you real Fred? Cannot for one minute believe you. You are winding us up ?

Just do what greekman ,This_is_me and I have done and squelch him

Bye Fred. aldwickk IM with you.

Your the JOKER FRED

Sadly missed.

dreamcatcher....great pic....first class pic of a w***** can you do one of pro

There you go marky,lol

Hi Dreamcatcher,

As Aldwickk states, just squelch him.

All,

Looks like this has reached the stage of, 'Not so much a talk to yourself thread, more of a talk to F**D thread.
Shame some just can't resist answering him.
I have had enough. Shame we can't start a none F**D thread.

Last post now, until things pick up.
Will miss the banter, serious or otherwise from the many sensible (and silly) posters on here.

Never have minded the silly, as probably been responsible for many myself.
Its the stupid and downright 'just to wind people up posters' and those who can't seem to resist relying to them that have made it yet again a thread not worth bothering with.
Yes, I have several squelched, and some probably have me on the squelch list, which I have no prob with. Its those who continually reply to the muppets whilst often also posting many good, interesting, provocative well argued views and opinions that I will miss, but its not worth wading through the F**D replies.

Regards
Greek.

Hays,

I accept what you have written, but I do hope there is a model and that it is flexible.

Part of the extract which I read contained:-

“We do think there should be a rate cut. The Bank could go down to the rates in the US – 0.0 to 0.25 per cent. It is not the only answer, but it would help.” Since March 2009 the Bank base rate has remained at 0.5 per cent - the lowest level in the Bank’s 300 year history. A further rate cut could reduce mortgage repayments for millions of homeowners and would ease borrowing costs for businesses, The Sunday Telegraph reports."

(A member of the R/wing press.)

Personally, I don't think that reduction of interest rate will or would have that effect, because of lack of business "trust" in the present policies. Also even some models suggest that lowering rates will push "free" money back into the market and therefore stimulates it, I think there are to many doubting the direction the economy as a whole.

===========

I think the present government strangled off a recovering economy, by their rate of "slashing" and during an earlier period should have pushed "cash" into large infrastructure projects, rather than strangling them.

Osborne's timing appears wrong to me.

It's quite scary really that Merkel, Monti & Draghi will do everything required to make the Euro work. This will result in Europeans suffering huge losses and hardship so that the 'ruling elite' can satisfy their ego's.
2517

Blair was dead set on joining the Euro when he was PM and Gordon Brown used the Treasury models to prove it was a bad thing and that we wouldn't meet the divergence criteria. It was suggested at the time that Brown manipulated the use of the models to slant things his way.

The surprising thing about the Treasury model is that it has no political bias and successive governments have not tried to give it bias. The model is not based on Keynesian economics or Monetarism. The model makers and the government are only interested in the results and not the underlying economic philosophy. The results always have to be tweaked a bit due to changing circumstances.

Hays,

One of the few things which would deter me from UK joining the Euro-zone would be that Blair was in favour of it.

Models are only a representative distillate of a reality and if the reality is fluid then the model should also be “flexible” and “representative” of the processes being considered.
(A map is not the country.)

Also, the value of the models are the often based on the interpretations given and as one can see, can be very subjective.


However, even without a definite model, I foresee whatever a Europhobic group believe the Euro-zone and Euro currency will exist in 10, 20 and 30 years time.

There will be greater fiscal, legal and political integration. Also, there will be greater restraints on the Financial Services and Banks which have been partially responsible for the present chaos.

I think way back before 2007 I wrote that there was a necessity for greater fiscal integration in the Eurozone and criticised the rush to expand the number of the participating countries, before clarifying the rules. The rush to expand was, I thought, encouraged by the UK for various self interested reasons.

You can't make the model flexible. There is far too much work to alter it as it is used. It does allow for internal and external economic shocks though.

Then it is flexible.

Not really.

8-())