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2004 Goldfinger Stock Picks Thread (GOLD)     

goldfinger - 04 Jan 2004 00:32

Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.




goldfinger - 18 Feb 2004 10:22 - 179 of 304

A very interesting article that. Like I said yesterday I wouldnt let the day to day price bother you if it is on the downside. I notice they opened up down 1.5pence. Well done MMS, your logic takes some understanding.

cheers GF.

gordon geko - 18 Feb 2004 11:22 - 180 of 304

GF what do you think about IEN seems to be more positive than few weeks ago as
buyers return ???

goldfinger - 18 Feb 2004 16:14 - 181 of 304

Gordon will have a look.

Just opened a new position in Imagination Technologies IMG. Killik and Co have started to follow it today on a TA breakout. They say its their choice in the chip market.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 18 Feb 2004 17:55 - 182 of 304

Just had a good look Gordon. Does look like it is getting stronger and the last trading update was very positive. Just puts me off that theres big competition in this market. Its on the good old watch list now though.

cheers GF.

zscrooge - 18 Feb 2004 19:14 - 183 of 304

GMX, 57% today. I thank you.

dick dasterdly - 18 Feb 2004 20:59 - 184 of 304

GF any news on servicepower soon ????

goldfinger - 19 Feb 2004 00:03 - 185 of 304

Well done Zscrooge, your wellin the dosh.

SVR, below.

Greenbaum associates to resell SERVICEPower in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland
ServicePower increases presence in German speaking countries

Stockport, UK, February 18, 2004 -- ServicePower (LSE: SVR), a global developer and supplier of workforce optimisation software for the Customer Relationship Management (CRM) market, today announced that greenbaum associates ag will distribute and support the SERVICEPower intelligent scheduler throughout German speaking countries. greenbaum associates, a Swiss management and IT services consultancy, will resell SERVICEPower in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Both ServicePower and greenbaum will continue to work with Munich based strategy consultants Barkawi Associates, announced as a ServicePower partner in 2003, who will focus their efforts on providing consultancy support services for SERVICEPower implementations in Germany.

“We are delighted that an organisation with the service experience of greenbaum has agreed to help ServicePower increase its presence in German speaking countries,” said Derek Crumpton, general manager Europe for ServicePower. “The SERVICEPower product will be tailored to meet the needs of these new markets, particularly in terms of language, and we look forward to gaining the same success in these countries as we have already experienced in the UK and U.S.”

“A number of companies in both Germany and Switzerland have expressed an interest in making their field service operations more flexible, efficient, and productive,” commented Michael Mattern, director of greenbaum. “We saw how SERVICEPower improved the productivity of service organisations in other countries and are confident we can help our clients achieve the same improvements,” he added.

About greenbaum associates

greenbaum associates are a services and solutions company based in Central Switzerland and operating throughout Europe. Committed to delivering tangible benefits, greenbaum partners with its clients to help them identify quantifiable enhancements to existing processes and applications and deliver real benefits that become visible in the client’s bottom line. Unlike other strategy and IT consulting firms, greenbaum consultants often work on the basis of clearly defined objectives and success-based fees. With deep industry expertise, a broad network of associates, and proven experience in consulting, distribution, and the deployment of software, greenbaum provide full, end-to-end business solutions. For more information, visit the Web site at: http://www.greenbaum.ch/.

cheers GF.

nematode - 19 Feb 2004 15:02 - 186 of 304

BPRG progressing very nicely.RNS tomorrow?????

goldfinger - 19 Feb 2004 15:52 - 187 of 304

Fingers crossed. If id doesnt come in the morning we have next week any way.

cheers GF.

nematode - 21 Feb 2004 04:43 - 188 of 304

Excellent post about BPRG from poorold,

very interesting three weeks.

three weeks ago, FMC was a hopeful rumor and BPRG was trading for under 70p. THREE WEEKS AGO!!!

FMC is announced. Minimum $160 million in revenues and pundits expect $800+ million over the next 8 years.

FMC spent over one year performing due diligence...and had been looking elsewhere for a solution before they stumbled on BPRG.

Quite a vote of confidence in the NRobe technology. Please do not overlook the bit about FMC having a technology that dovetails nicely with NROBE.

Now, FMC already has a blue-chip pharmaceutical clientele and will likely add to that list with NRobe.

BPRG will CLEARLY ride the coattails of FMC into FMC's GLOBAL pharmaceutical customers with their other technologies.

That, I expect, is in addition to the rumored hook-up with Bristol Myers Squibb, which seems to be different than the OTC pharma letter of intent.

Don't forget that Bristol Myers Squibb was the first global pharma named in R&D with BPRG. Four or five additional global pharma's signed up on an "un-named" basis since Bristol was named almost 2 years ago.

If the deal is with Bristol Myers Squibb, then I expect that the four or five other global pharma's are not far behind Bristol Myers Squibb.

That would be in addition to the US OTC powerhouse.

And in addition to Conva-Tec.

All in all, the investment world is about to made aware of a little company that will own a tiny fraction of all the future encapsulation revenues of every major consumer prescription and OTC medication available for the next 20-30+ years.

Microsoft and other internet companies have tried for years to come up with the internet transaction for which they charge a fraction of a pence for each of the billions and billions of transactions. That is the golden goose for them.

Well, BPRG is about to do just that in a market that is even larger!

nematode - 21 Feb 2004 16:33 - 189 of 304

London Evening Standard page 48 - Market Report Friday 20th February...

"Bioprogress put on 4p to a record 159p. Dealers say the rise is being fuelled by talk of a tie-up with US drugs group Bristol-Myers Squibb."

bishopjeremy - 22 Feb 2004 12:53 - 190 of 304

Armour Group are the featured Stockwatch share in Saturday's Times."well placed to take advantage of the ban on using mobile phones while driving....the shares have been rising steadily since June of last year, when it put out a trading statement predicting takings well ahead of expectations". Good bit of coverage for a good share.

goldfinger - 23 Feb 2004 16:17 - 191 of 304

Not been a good day for the small caps guys, tuesday should be better.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 24 Feb 2004 23:30 - 192 of 304

Well how wrong could I get it another rotten day but dont feel theres any need to panic.

Heres just a couple of Pro thoughts on the present situation, firstly from brokers Killik who didnt get this out until lunchtime............

The NASDAQ suffered another pull back last night, worth around 1.5%. The
retrenchment from the highs is now worth around 10% but follows a virtual doubling
over the past year. Arguably, many of the leading index players have got in front of
themselves on valuation grounds until further evidence can be attached to the strength
of the pick up in corporate information technology spend. Some profit taking at this
juncture seems only appropriate.
But the bigger story appears to be some rolling over of US indices which have set the
pace over the past few months – can Europe decouple and tread its own path?
Yesterday, good corporate data and takeover speculation kept the markets in positive
territory although, by the end, these were being trimmed. This morning’s results are
showing the effects of the dollar on UK profitability, disguising generally good
underlying figures.

And from The Frequenttrader Robbie Burns....

A bit of a down day for small cap stocks today though seems like markdowns rather than any real selling. Bovis Homes has now shot higher and is giving me some nice spread bet profits.

The US indicies werent at all that bad at the close and in after hours, and I really do feel that we are probably at the base of the recent down turn.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Feb 2004 23:44 - 193 of 304

Just hoping in the week to come we have seen the back of the US pull back, on friday we saw the Naz drop for the 6 th week in a row.

Anyway my shopping trip on weds and thurs is already starting to pay dividends.

The only minus are gold stocks that seem to be taking a breather, but still feel they will be a lot higher come September than what they are now.

cheers Gf.

moneyplus - 01 Mar 2004 14:49 - 194 of 304

AFE has gone backwards since I bought it---anyone got any comments to cheer me up?

goldfinger - 01 Mar 2004 14:58 - 195 of 304

Hi moneyplus , looks like all gold stocks are taking a big breather. Please remember by their nature explorers are always going to be lonfg term investments. having said that we may get a farm out deal with a big north American major before the end of the month, fingers crossed.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 01 Mar 2004 16:31 - 196 of 304

Just opened a new position In Sanctuary Group SGP, I think this article fron Citywire best somes up my reasons but I have been searching for value for about a week now and this one comes out way at the top for me.

Stick takes Sanctuary

Published: 11:10 Sun 29 Feb 2004

By Richard Lander, Editorial Director
Email to a friend

Sanctuary's recent results suggested management stand a good chance of making a success of its planned acquisition spree and one shrewd investor has backed the strategy with share purchases.

Rathbone's star manager Carl Stick picked up 200,000 shares in the expansive music group shortly after its full year results in which it told investors it foresaw a short period of 'unprecedented' acquisition opportunities.

Stick's Rathbone Special Situations Rathbone Special Situations unit trust now owns 2 million shares or 0.6% of the 174 million group (SGP).


Sanctuary has already proved itself adept at buying up the rights to catalogues of music and juicing value out of the assets.


The company began life as the management company for British heavy metallers Iron Maiden. However, it has built itself into an industry powerhouse buy both buy music rights as well as offering a home to disaffected musicians.


The company has built a 30 million war chest to fund acquisitions through the issue of issuing loan notes last September.


It recently picked up reggae label Creole records and it has three to four other acquisitions in its sights.


Sanctuary's existing business has been enjoying some noteworthy successes and recently achieved its first ever UK number one single.


It has also recently set up an urban music arm with the acquisition of Music World Entertainment which manages big name artists including Beyoncand Kelly Rowland's.


At the current price of 52.5p the shares are valued at 12.4 times earnings forecast for the year to the end of September and 11.2 times expectations for the year after.

The shares look attractive at this level especially if management have got it right about acquisition opportunities.ENDS.

Looks a good one to me , been searching for value for about a week now and this easily comes out on top. Well worth a punt I think, but please DYOR and remember you are responsible for the timing of buying and selling of shares.

cheers GF.



goldfinger - 02 Mar 2004 10:36 - 197 of 304

Opened a new position in CMS WEBVIEW CWV. The article below describes why I have opened the position. Havent seen Joanne Wallen so keen for a long time.

Citywire Tip: exchange is no robbery at CMS Webview
Published: 07:24 Tue 2 March 2004
By Joanne Wallen, Associate Editor
Email to a friend | Printable Version


CMS Webview is a rare breed of company these days, it is a tech company valued currently at 9 million but which should be poised for bigger things and which has attracted an AAA-rated fund manager into its recent placing.

The company originally spun out of the Liffe commodities exchange in 1982 and, following a management buyout in 1997 floated on AIM in 2000.


Unlike so many dotcom companies, CMS Webview (CWV) raised only 2.5 million, which enabled it to fulfil its initial vision of developing software to collect data from multiple feeds, aggregate it, put it into a common format and send it out in real time to end users.


Due to its heritage, the initial targets for this software were commodities exchanges, and, one of the key reasons that the company was able to go back to the market in December and raise a further 2.5 million, was the fact that it now counts the London Metals Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade as customers.


That a twenty-man band from London won the business of two of the major exchanges in Chicago clearly speaks for the quality of the software and the industry experience of the team.


One shrewd investor who thought it worth taking a stake at the recent placing was AAA-rated Giles Hargreave, who picked up 1.9 million shares for his Marlborough Special Situations fund. The placing of 25 million shares was at 10p, and shares are currently around 12p, valuing the business at just under 10 million.


Having bedded down these three major exchange customers, CMS is now ready to ramp up its sales effort. To date it has been doing what chief executive Bob Antell calls 'serial' selling, essentially selling one system a year.


However, now that the software is installed and proven in these three major customers, the company is ready to gear up its sales efforts to increase the volume of sales to several a year. It will fund this out of the new money raised.


There are some 200 exchanges in the world, of which 120 are potential targets for CMS' software, known as TDI. The company started selling to exchanges because this is its direct area of expertise. However it is also looking to target the banks, brokerages and quote vendors that are members of the exchanges.


Sales of the software are large ticket items, with an average sale price of around 750,000 for an exchange.


However the software is pretty generic, and, further down the line CMS will explore other vertical markets for the software such as betting, airline ticketing or any other service that takes in data from many sources and requires real time information out. It intends to exploit other markets through partnerships with vertical market specialists. However Antell stressed that this was for further down the line. (continued...)

The company also has two other revenue streams. It uses TDI itself to offer a consolidated digital data feed service to customers such as quote terminal vendors, banks and brokers. CMS has a fully equipped data communications suite in East London, from which, using TDI software, it can collate data from many sources on behalf of its customers and push that data out to them as a single, consolidated feed in real time. So far it has 11 quote terminal vendors as customers, and has not yet gone out to sell to the banks.


Finally, CMS has the exclusive European distribution rights to a data terminal called ProphetX, which competes with the likes of Reuters providing data on the commodities and energy markets. To date the company has twenty corporate customers, some of which take ProphetX as a backup to an existing system and others which have replaced existing, and usually more expensive systems.


Terminals sell for around 200 a month, and Antell says the business is profitable and generates cash. Digital data feed customers pay around 20-25,000 a year.


At present, TDI is the biggest part of the business, but Antell can foresee a time when CMS could have three separate business divisions, each making a major contribution.


In the six months to June, the company turned over 905,000, up 55% on the previous year Losses were reduced by 66% to 116,000.


House broker Corporate Synergy reckons the company is 'set for rapid growth and profits in 2004/5. It is looking for turnover of 3.6 million, profits of 300,000 and earnings per share of 0.3p this year rising to 6.4 million of turnover, 2.4 million of profit and 3p per share next year. The broker has a target price of 18p for the shares.


Full year results are due next month.


Citywire Verdict:


A tiny company with such blue chip customers is a rare find. CMS has survived the horrendous market conditions since it floated, and really does now look poised for bigger and better things.


It has proven software in at three highly impressive reference sites and is opening offices in Chicago to exploit the strong references in that city. (continued...)

There are then two other viable sources of revenue which should help smooth out the lumps from selling high value software licences.


At this price shares are trading on just 4 times next year's forecast earnings. Even allowing for some slippage in revenues, this share looks just about as cheap as they get at this time.


Yes it is a tech stock, yes there are still risks, but there could easily be some serious upside here. Buy.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 02 Mar 2004 11:53 - 198 of 304

Pretty poor day so far for small caps but never mind CWV is doing just fine. Added twice again this morning as I see these as really fantastic value with a forward p/e of 4.

cheers Gf.
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