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zarif
- 19 Sep 2003 17:29
can we start the ball rolling on sb firms and cfd firms giving them marks out of 10. spreads etc. also min size openings etc.
this was not my idea the suggestion was from jules and i think we should give it a try.
this was not my idea the suggestion was from jules and i think we should give it a try.
zarif
- 24 Sep 2003 12:20
- 18 of 69
Are we long on the dow today as i reckon we are nortbound today
rgds
zarif
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 24 Sep 2003 13:56
- 19 of 69
Afternoon everyone:
An intersting article that i came across on my sorties in cyberspace.
Re: The 50% retracement article for the dow:
That level represents the half-way point between the all-time high of 11,722 reached by the Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) and its low last year of 7,286. The blue-chip average has been hovering around this level for several weeks now, closing modestly above it on some occasions and below it on others before ending Tuesday's action at 9,576.
As Jack Adamo of Jack Adamo's Insiders Plus newsletter put it recently: "According to Dow Theory, when a bear market rally makes up more than half the decline from the previous top, it is more likely to test the old high than the old low. Obviously then, that halfway mark is an important juncture."
Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, adds: "I'm interested to see whether the Dow can pull up and away from 9,504, or whether 9,504 will act as a 'magnet,' and in the end be too much for the Dow to overcome."
I nevertheless have my reservations about this 50 percent retracement principle, for several reasons.
First, it's not clear that either Charles Dow, for whom the Theory is named, or William Peter Hamilton, who spelled out and interpreted the Theory in a series of Wall Street Journal editorials in the first three decades of the last century, ever mentioned this principle.
That's according to Bill James, a Sacramento-based investor and author who has devoted much of his life to studying the Dow Theory. James has been working on a book about the Dow Theory for 20 years, and not only has he not found any reference in Dow's or Hamilton's writings to such a principle, he believes that they would have "quickly discarded" it as being "too much in conflict" with the rest of their Theory.
Apparently, the 50 percent principle was instead introduced by E. George Schaefer, who published a newsletter in the middle years of the last century by the name of Dow Theory Trader.
On one level, of course, it shouldn't matter whether this principle is or isn't part of the Dow Theory. The key question is whether it is a helpful market-timing tool. And I'll get to that in a minute.
But it is important to be clear and precise about what any theory entails, for without that precision it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to judge its effectiveness in a scientific way. For example, if someone told you that the Dow Theory has a poor track record, you wouldn't know whether the Theory that was tracked included the 50 percent principle or not.
All in the interpretation
In any case, the key question is whether the 50 percent principle is effective. Answering this is not as straightforward as you might imagine, however. It depends crucially on how it is interpreted.
For example, Adamo's formulation of the 50 percent principle is true, but only trivially so. Even if the stock market's movements were entirely random, the 50 percent principle would still appear to be true.
After all, if I'm closer to the market's high than to its low, which would be the case once it has retraced 50 percent of the previous bear market, random volatility alone would make it more likely that the market sooner makes it back to that high before making it back to that low.
To study the effectiveness of the 50 percent retracement principle, I therefore measured the stock market's performance following periods in which it had retraced 50 percent of a previous decline. If the principle is in fact useful, then the market should have performed better following such periods than following other bear market periods when it had failed to retrace 50 percent of its decline.
Here's how I designed my study:
First, I identified the 18 major bull market tops that occurred between 1896, when the Dow was created, and today.
Then for each of these market tops, I identified the first date thereafter at which the market had declined by 10 percent. I examined all trade days from then until the market subsequently surpassed its previous top.
Next, I segregated all these dates into two categories. The first contained those on which the Dow Industrials had retraced at least 50 percent of the decline from its previous top; the second contained all others.
For all dates in both categories, I measured the Dow's performance over subsequent periods lasting three, six and 12 months.
What I found was that the market performed almost exactly the same regardless of whether the 50 percent retracement principle had been satisfied.
On average, over the three months following trade dates that satisfied the 50 percent principle, the Dow gained 1.0 percent. Over the three months following trade dates that did not satisfy that principle, the blue-chip barometer on average gained 1.3 percent.
Though this difference is not statistically significant, notice that the market actually performed better following periods in which the 50 percent principle was not satisfied.
Consider next the difference over the subsequent six months. On average following periods in which the principle was satisfied, the Dow gained an average of 2.4 percent, as compared to 2.7 percent following periods in which the principle wasn't satisfied. This again is not statistically significant.
And over the subsequent 12 months, the average gain was identical for dates in both categories: 6.1 percent.
To be sure, my particular formulation of the 50 percent principle is not the only way of interpreting it. But the results of my study suggest that it may not be as effective a market-timing tool as many consider it to be.
And that, in turn, suggests that the 9,504 level may not be all that significant after all.
An intersting article that i came across on my sorties in cyberspace.
Re: The 50% retracement article for the dow:
That level represents the half-way point between the all-time high of 11,722 reached by the Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) and its low last year of 7,286. The blue-chip average has been hovering around this level for several weeks now, closing modestly above it on some occasions and below it on others before ending Tuesday's action at 9,576.
As Jack Adamo of Jack Adamo's Insiders Plus newsletter put it recently: "According to Dow Theory, when a bear market rally makes up more than half the decline from the previous top, it is more likely to test the old high than the old low. Obviously then, that halfway mark is an important juncture."
Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, adds: "I'm interested to see whether the Dow can pull up and away from 9,504, or whether 9,504 will act as a 'magnet,' and in the end be too much for the Dow to overcome."
I nevertheless have my reservations about this 50 percent retracement principle, for several reasons.
First, it's not clear that either Charles Dow, for whom the Theory is named, or William Peter Hamilton, who spelled out and interpreted the Theory in a series of Wall Street Journal editorials in the first three decades of the last century, ever mentioned this principle.
That's according to Bill James, a Sacramento-based investor and author who has devoted much of his life to studying the Dow Theory. James has been working on a book about the Dow Theory for 20 years, and not only has he not found any reference in Dow's or Hamilton's writings to such a principle, he believes that they would have "quickly discarded" it as being "too much in conflict" with the rest of their Theory.
Apparently, the 50 percent principle was instead introduced by E. George Schaefer, who published a newsletter in the middle years of the last century by the name of Dow Theory Trader.
On one level, of course, it shouldn't matter whether this principle is or isn't part of the Dow Theory. The key question is whether it is a helpful market-timing tool. And I'll get to that in a minute.
But it is important to be clear and precise about what any theory entails, for without that precision it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to judge its effectiveness in a scientific way. For example, if someone told you that the Dow Theory has a poor track record, you wouldn't know whether the Theory that was tracked included the 50 percent principle or not.
All in the interpretation
In any case, the key question is whether the 50 percent principle is effective. Answering this is not as straightforward as you might imagine, however. It depends crucially on how it is interpreted.
For example, Adamo's formulation of the 50 percent principle is true, but only trivially so. Even if the stock market's movements were entirely random, the 50 percent principle would still appear to be true.
After all, if I'm closer to the market's high than to its low, which would be the case once it has retraced 50 percent of the previous bear market, random volatility alone would make it more likely that the market sooner makes it back to that high before making it back to that low.
To study the effectiveness of the 50 percent retracement principle, I therefore measured the stock market's performance following periods in which it had retraced 50 percent of a previous decline. If the principle is in fact useful, then the market should have performed better following such periods than following other bear market periods when it had failed to retrace 50 percent of its decline.
Here's how I designed my study:
First, I identified the 18 major bull market tops that occurred between 1896, when the Dow was created, and today.
Then for each of these market tops, I identified the first date thereafter at which the market had declined by 10 percent. I examined all trade days from then until the market subsequently surpassed its previous top.
Next, I segregated all these dates into two categories. The first contained those on which the Dow Industrials had retraced at least 50 percent of the decline from its previous top; the second contained all others.
For all dates in both categories, I measured the Dow's performance over subsequent periods lasting three, six and 12 months.
What I found was that the market performed almost exactly the same regardless of whether the 50 percent retracement principle had been satisfied.
On average, over the three months following trade dates that satisfied the 50 percent principle, the Dow gained 1.0 percent. Over the three months following trade dates that did not satisfy that principle, the blue-chip barometer on average gained 1.3 percent.
Though this difference is not statistically significant, notice that the market actually performed better following periods in which the 50 percent principle was not satisfied.
Consider next the difference over the subsequent six months. On average following periods in which the principle was satisfied, the Dow gained an average of 2.4 percent, as compared to 2.7 percent following periods in which the principle wasn't satisfied. This again is not statistically significant.
And over the subsequent 12 months, the average gain was identical for dates in both categories: 6.1 percent.
To be sure, my particular formulation of the 50 percent principle is not the only way of interpreting it. But the results of my study suggest that it may not be as effective a market-timing tool as many consider it to be.
And that, in turn, suggests that the 9,504 level may not be all that significant after all.
zarif
- 24 Sep 2003 16:11
- 20 of 69
where is everybody today?
zarif
- 24 Sep 2003 21:18
- 21 of 69
Hopefully it is going to be a LONG LONG DAY tomorrow
rgds
zarif
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 25 Sep 2003 15:14
- 22 of 69
Dow on a downer again after kodak news.
Are we on Shorts again today????
rgds
zarif
Are we on Shorts again today????
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 25 Sep 2003 15:19
- 23 of 69
Snoball, megabucks, jules99 and everyone look at this:
Buy Kleeneze at 150p or below.
Current mid price: 136p
bid/offer: 132/140
stop loss: 120
Limit buy: 150
Sector:retail
Target : 190
market cap: 64million
Epic Code: KLZ
What do you think?
rgds
zarif
Buy Kleeneze at 150p or below.
Current mid price: 136p
bid/offer: 132/140
stop loss: 120
Limit buy: 150
Sector:retail
Target : 190
market cap: 64million
Epic Code: KLZ
What do you think?
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 26 Sep 2003 15:09
- 24 of 69
lucky break yesterday as i had closed all the longs and was just about to do some more when it took a nose dive and i chased it with shorts and closed them outaswell.Today am just looking at the screen and waiting.
By the way guys what no of points do you put your stop losses at and if you dont mind what /pts do you go for etc
rgds
zarif
By the way guys what no of points do you put your stop losses at and if you dont mind what /pts do you go for etc
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 26 Sep 2003 17:53
- 25 of 69
Dow Jones - Key levels & Trends 26 September 2003
Support breached
The Dow Jones had been up before it moved sharply lower at the close ending the session down 82 points at 9,344 and just a fraction above the long term Fibonacci support at 9,336.
Most importantly the index moved down through the support line and should the Fibonacci just below give way we're most likely heading for 9,000.
Resistance is 9,467 (the lower old support line) and then the upper resistance at 9,671.
Support breached
The Dow Jones had been up before it moved sharply lower at the close ending the session down 82 points at 9,344 and just a fraction above the long term Fibonacci support at 9,336.
Most importantly the index moved down through the support line and should the Fibonacci just below give way we're most likely heading for 9,000.
Resistance is 9,467 (the lower old support line) and then the upper resistance at 9,671.
zarif
- 28 Sep 2003 11:44
- 26 of 69
The dow took a good dive last week and the footsie being around 4150-4175,What are your feelings for monday and the week. I think that it is going to ( the dow) fall to around 9100-9160 if the footsie doesniot recover.
Btw Fibronacci,ellion,gann -forget them as u say they are alright after the event best to follow the price and trust your instinct at times and u can see alot more happening in front of your eyes and react much faster than looking at charts all the time.
best rgds
zarif
Btw Fibronacci,ellion,gann -forget them as u say they are alright after the event best to follow the price and trust your instinct at times and u can see alot more happening in front of your eyes and react much faster than looking at charts all the time.
best rgds
zarif
zarif
- 29 Sep 2003 13:24
- 27 of 69
Hello all:
Its Monday again and waiting for the Wall st to open in an hour (1400gmt).What do u think we have in store today. I think it will be volatile to say the least and if we look at the prices both long and shorts (hold them briefly )WAtch the PRICES -its possible to make money. Also because it being the end qtr today -likely to have an upward shift.
Let me know _ ps I have taken some anaesthetic in that it does not hit me that hard
rgds zarif
Its Monday again and waiting for the Wall st to open in an hour (1400gmt).What do u think we have in store today. I think it will be volatile to say the least and if we look at the prices both long and shorts (hold them briefly )WAtch the PRICES -its possible to make money. Also because it being the end qtr today -likely to have an upward shift.
Let me know _ ps I have taken some anaesthetic in that it does not hit me that hard
rgds zarif
zarif
- 29 Sep 2003 13:43
- 28 of 69
Brief summary from my travels:
Dow lost 30.88 points to close at 9,313.08. Dow's 14-Day Relative strength Index (RSI) is:41.72 and trending down. Dow is trading below 13-Day (9493), below 50-Day (9357), above 200-Day (8690) Moving Averages. Dow is trading with negative momentum. Dow's resistance levels are: 9429, 9550, 9699. Dow's support levels are: 9196, 9079, 8976.
Type High Low
52-Week 9,686.08 7,416.64
60-Day 9,686.08 8,997.11
21-Day 9,686.08 9,303.82
rgds
zarif
Ps: try a website gives 2 weeks free trial_ no credit cards needed.
www.sixer.com
let me know what u think of it
Dow lost 30.88 points to close at 9,313.08. Dow's 14-Day Relative strength Index (RSI) is:41.72 and trending down. Dow is trading below 13-Day (9493), below 50-Day (9357), above 200-Day (8690) Moving Averages. Dow is trading with negative momentum. Dow's resistance levels are: 9429, 9550, 9699. Dow's support levels are: 9196, 9079, 8976.
Type High Low
52-Week 9,686.08 7,416.64
60-Day 9,686.08 8,997.11
21-Day 9,686.08 9,303.82
rgds
zarif
Ps: try a website gives 2 weeks free trial_ no credit cards needed.
www.sixer.com
let me know what u think of it
zarif
- 30 Sep 2003 12:37
- 29 of 69
HEllo everyone:
The dow managed to scalp both on the longs and shorts yesterday(29/9/2003).So what are we going to do today. I think it is going to head south. On my browing i found the www.sixer.com site quoting a high %ctage of bulls on the dow for today.What are your opinions???
rgds to all
zarif.
Ps: jules99 - welldone on the dow yesterday, I was pretty certain you would get past the 9350 mark.
The dow managed to scalp both on the longs and shorts yesterday(29/9/2003).So what are we going to do today. I think it is going to head south. On my browing i found the www.sixer.com site quoting a high %ctage of bulls on the dow for today.What are your opinions???
rgds to all
zarif.
Ps: jules99 - welldone on the dow yesterday, I was pretty certain you would get past the 9350 mark.
zarif
- 30 Sep 2003 13:34
- 30 of 69
Levels to watch for in Tuesdays trading:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) support at 9200; resistance at 9758
S&P 500 (SPX) support at 995; resistance at 1050
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) support at 1780; resistance at 1950
Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) support at 9200; resistance at 9758
S&P 500 (SPX) support at 995; resistance at 1050
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) support at 1780; resistance at 1950
zarif
- 30 Sep 2003 15:25
- 31 of 69
Jules: Megabucks: Snoball:
I hope u are all shorting like mad and not in the longs at present. What a nosedive. I had 2 shorts and collected 114pts at 15/pt and 80pts at 12/pt. Now I am just looking at the screen and anaestehetised myself with my best freinds Chivas And Haigh.
Good luck
rgds
zrif
I hope u are all shorting like mad and not in the longs at present. What a nosedive. I had 2 shorts and collected 114pts at 15/pt and 80pts at 12/pt. Now I am just looking at the screen and anaestehetised myself with my best freinds Chivas And Haigh.
Good luck
rgds
zrif
zarif
- 30 Sep 2003 16:49
- 32 of 69
jules:
I have gone long at 9195 Dec Dow at 15/pt and it is at 9246 as i write at gmt 16.42 (14.00 eastern time usa 2pm) and i think it is going to have a lot more upside and am waiting.
Jules Are you Trading the Daily Dow WHich Expires at end of day trade (9pm), which can be costly at times when the market is uncertain.
You can trade the following month eg#: october november or december and hence giving more time for the trade to mature in case it doesnot happen on the day you can carry on.
let me know and happy hunting
rgds
zarif
I have gone long at 9195 Dec Dow at 15/pt and it is at 9246 as i write at gmt 16.42 (14.00 eastern time usa 2pm) and i think it is going to have a lot more upside and am waiting.
Jules Are you Trading the Daily Dow WHich Expires at end of day trade (9pm), which can be costly at times when the market is uncertain.
You can trade the following month eg#: october november or december and hence giving more time for the trade to mature in case it doesnot happen on the day you can carry on.
let me know and happy hunting
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 01 Oct 2003 16:23
- 33 of 69
Hi everybody,
Just closed the long from yesterday and taken out some shorts. I think shall fulfill both before the day is out as we had quite a down slide yesterday. Also this is the end of the 3rd qtr and beginning of the 4th qtr so be careful with your trades and watch the stoplosses etc. Generally if Sept was a good month then Oct seems to be a downer especialy in the opening weeks. So my personal scheme is Shorts will be the main operatives.
rgds
to all
well done jules I am sure u shall be giving us advise soon.
Ps the link on the live chart by megabucks is the best that i have come across so far.
rgds
zarif
Just closed the long from yesterday and taken out some shorts. I think shall fulfill both before the day is out as we had quite a down slide yesterday. Also this is the end of the 3rd qtr and beginning of the 4th qtr so be careful with your trades and watch the stoplosses etc. Generally if Sept was a good month then Oct seems to be a downer especialy in the opening weeks. So my personal scheme is Shorts will be the main operatives.
rgds
to all
well done jules I am sure u shall be giving us advise soon.
Ps the link on the live chart by megabucks is the best that i have come across so far.
rgds
zarif
jules99
- 01 Oct 2003 17:18
- 34 of 69
Just shorted again at 9380 10$ a point...
What goes up must come down theory at play...lol
Hopefully not a DOW ...OOW..!
but WOW...!
Jules99...
what are thoughts...?
What goes up must come down theory at play...lol
Hopefully not a DOW ...OOW..!
but WOW...!
Jules99...
what are thoughts...?
zarif
- 01 Oct 2003 17:31
- 35 of 69
I Just closed a Long at 9360 - a 100pt gain at 15/pt. I have tagen a short from 9363 and now going to wait. I usually find that in the frequency of trades make more money in shorting than on longs. You are quite right what goes up must come down - unless it flies and sometimes the market does give us a kick in our egos.
best of luck in trading.
rgds
zarif
best of luck in trading.
rgds
zarif
zarif
- 01 Oct 2003 17:43
- 36 of 69
Watch out for the men in black!!!
rgds
zarif
rgds
zarif
jules99
- 01 Oct 2003 18:04
- 37 of 69
CMC driving me nuts...errors by the hour today...what does one do???
only been with them 3 days...
not funny...
jules99.
only been with them 3 days...
not funny...
jules99.
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