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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 9th February (ULVR)     

Crocodile - 08 Feb 2004 12:27

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE +4 DAX +3 DOW Unch S&P -0.5 Nasdaq +1

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Nikkei -58  Hang Seng +217 Asia News

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G7: Chancellor Gordon Brown says the British and U.S. economies are picking up strongly but he has warned that the euro zone needs radical economic surgery if it was to share in the world recovery

Vodaphone confirms it is considering an offer of 37 Billion dollars for AT&T wireless. Even with the sale of Verizon for 20 Billion it will leave them with a 17 Billion funding gap. These concerns have led to the recent weakness in VOD.

British Airways posted a third-quarter profit of 125 million above analysts average forecast of 94 million near the top of the forecast range but said security issues were still having some impact on forward bookings.

PSION, Is disposing of its Symbian stake for approx 135 million pounds to Nokia. This works out some 215p a share so with the share price of PSION being 95p except fireworks!

Eurotunnel posted a 1.9 billion euro net loss due to big write downs, and said it had proposed significantly cutting access rates for train operators to boost traffic but to do this it would need a more stable financial structure.. Operating profit fell to 248 million euros from 326 million euros.

Bloomsbury is set to launch the paperback version of the latest chronicles of Harry Potter, on July 10.

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Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 13:09 - 18 of 24

Everywhere I read at the moment, comment seems to be
about the US opening higher and pushing on.

DOW is already up to around 10,600, so why not some profit
taking and a drop to test 10,500 instead?

If it does this and takes it's time, say 1640 hrs, Europe will
drop towards the close.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 09 Feb 2004 14:19 - 19 of 24

Much thanks Croc for providing the answer to a question I had, without
me even asking!! - namely why ULVR was heading south on a generally positive day!
On a more positive note- It should be a good fortnight for the banks!

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2004 15:08 - 20 of 24

melnibone,

agree with your comments re gsk retracing to 1150p though i find it hard to believe we will see 1000p again. Results are due out thursday which may help to dictate the next moves in the shorter term. I am looking to buy medium term again on any further dip, but am likely to wait until the results are out of the way before re-entering. i still like the look of this as a long term stock but the volatility at the moment makes it a stock I find hard to hold when it makes it into profit after only a few days

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 15:22 - 21 of 24

If you find it hard to hold when in profit, then I
suggest that you are more inclined to be a Trader than
an LTBH sort of person. :-)
So why not carry on taking the profits like you seem to
doing? It's far more satisfying!

GSK is expected to announce that the positive effects of
it's merger are now coming to an end. So you are probably
wise, if you are looking for an LTBH position, to wait until
after the results as you say.

If the market wants to sell GSK off, and remember some people still
have profits to take from those 1000p levels, then it may use
this as an excuse.

Same as you, I like this stock, but that doesn't mean that it may
not go cheaper.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 15:26 - 22 of 24

SHEL is getting cheaper by the day. With the increase in dividend
it must approach 5% yield soon.

Looks like Testex wasn't far off the mark with the 330p target.

Melnibone.

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2004 16:39 - 23 of 24

Melnibone,

tx for your comments - I normally have no problems holding when in profit, I have shares I have held 4yrs+ that are in profit - it just seems to be GSK that has this effect on me. I am going to keep trading it short term whilst looking for a price I am comfortable buying at for the long term.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 18:56 - 24 of 24

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FTSE didn't really show that much strength today.
It's interesting to see where the highs topped out.
Right at what was the previous swing low at circa 4430.

Unless the US cracks on and finishes DOW/S@P 10700/1150,
I don't really see the FTSE pushing much past here.
It needs some positive momentum to break through here and
mount another attack on 4480/4500.

Some traders have some nice fat profits to take in the
finance stocks now. If the US pulls back below 10600,
they'll have the excuse to take them.
I'll need a lot of convincing before going long here.

Melnibone.

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