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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 10:16 - 18 of 1009

parveen1 - Fundy's view sums up how most investors have felt over the past couple of months (i.e. very bearish). In that sort of environment people will be happy to pocket any profits they can get and do a runner from the markets.

There are a lot of retail investors who sold RTD who didn't really want to sell because they could see the company really going places, however with the spectre of a potential severe market downturn looming they didn't want to take any risks.

I have picked up a change in general market sentiment over the past few days, I'm not sure if this will continue into a rally, though it ties in well with my predictions for an overall sideways market during 2005.

As time goes on I can see the CNP income for RTD increasing substantially - I don't know about you but I estimate that my own CNP transactions this year so far are around 500% more than they were last year. For example I've found it's cheaper to buy plumbing spares on-line (even with delivery included) than it is to go to the local plumbers merchants (even if you pretend to be a plumber to get the discount lol!).

RTD is a solid company destined for a very bright future - I don't think it will be much longer before the shares price starts to reflect its current success and future potential.

Fred1new - 16 May 2005 10:30 - 19 of 1009

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 10:38 - 20 of 1009

Speak up Fred lol!

Fundamentalist - 16 May 2005 11:12 - 21 of 1009

OG

some good points, i dare say my CNP transactions have grown similar amounts - its very rare i buy anything these days from the high street - far less hassle doing so from the comfort of the sofa and normally cheaper.

I hope you are right with the CNP income increasing substantially, I was just surprised how little the turnover increased in the last set of results despite all the new contracts that had been signed in the previous 18 months. Part of the problem with estimating the financial impact of the growth in transactions and new contracts is the values are never disclosed - ie is it a fixed price, a certain amount per transaction or a combination and at what levels


Parveen

do you have a fundamental basis to back up 45p?

parveen1 - 16 May 2005 11:32 - 22 of 1009

i don't Fundy

Im just going along with the tipsters



parveen1 - 16 May 2005 11:37 - 23 of 1009

1.45m buys to 50k sells

Fundamentalist - 16 May 2005 11:51 - 24 of 1009

Interestingly, according to another BB the writer of the FSL tip is Tom Bulford. He is the editor of RHPS - whose last view on RTD was to sell - on that basis wouldnt be a big surprise to see a buy tip from RHPS in the near future - pure specualtion of course

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 13:20 - 25 of 1009

I reckon that Bully just recommended sell towards the end of December to keep the 2004 RHPS track record looking tasty. From what I can remember there was no justification for the sell recommendation based on any fundamental concerns.

Anyway, since then we've had the Federation Stores deal, several other smaller deals and massive institutional interest - plenty of backup for a buy recommendation again.

I wonder if he'll be telling everyone to sell at 40p this Chistmas lol!

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 13:30 - 26 of 1009

An interesting post from srpactive on advfn:

"I have an old analyst report that has
been spot on with its figures for the
last few years for RTD.

The next figures up from 5.45m profit
on 32m turnover is 41m turnover with
12.5m profit, with all the new contracts
being signed I do not think T/O of 41m
is far away, thats probably why barclays
and goldman have been filling their boots."

parveen1 - 17 May 2005 11:15 - 27 of 1009

Looks like an order for 1 Million shares from yesterday has now been completed

Fundamentalist - 17 May 2005 21:25 - 28 of 1009

This was posted on another bulletin board today - Zak Mirs latest TA view on RTD from iii website


Retail Decisions (RTD):

Having interviewed and written about the company at least a couple of years before the latest irritating chip and pin credit card craze, I have been expecting the share price of Retail Decisions to finally have their day in the sun. This was especially seen in the final quarter of last year. But so far this year the stock seems to have dithered somewhat and it may be that there is still a little weakness to come. The favoured zone as far as support is concerned is that old February 2004 resistance at 26p and the 200 day moving as well. But bargain hunters may be ready to wait for a bottom of price channel dip at the March 2004 support line running through 21p. Given how volatile the shares have proved to be over the past few years, it may very well be that the low 20p's are a safer place to go long


Seems a bit wishy washy to me - i can see it falling back to the 200ma (26p ish) without further news but would expect the bottom to need to fall out of the market to see low 20s

overgrowth - 17 May 2005 21:43 - 29 of 1009

Fundy - I agree.

Daves Dazzlers has been looking at a possible technical entry point of 26p for ages. If lots of other folks are thinking the same, then in the unlikely event that the price does drop to around the 26p mark there will be hordes of buyers coming in on the back of the technical buy signal.

Zak Mir is a chartist pure and simple and charts are only right some of the time not forgetting that news always overrides the technical viewpoint.

The comments are wishy washy because there's no fundamental knowledge to back up the statements. Not even any general sector analysis, market forecasting etc. not to mention the numerous new contracts which RTD have gained this year on top of an impressive profitable client portfolio of blue chips both here and in the US and of course the highly lucrative fuel card business.

Cybersource was up strongly today in the US - that suggests to me that the sector is continuing in full speed ahead mode, which is great news for RTD.

The Fleet Street letter tip was much more interesting because they are normally inherently bearish, always saying that this market or that sector will crash etc.

The fact that they believe that RTD has "Global Pre-eminence" means that they believe that the company has the right management, business model and client base to sail through any stormy market conditions.

So, if RTD can sail relatively unharmed through stormy conditions - they are really going to go ballistic in a bullish market.

Fundamentalist - 17 May 2005 21:56 - 30 of 1009

OG

re: cybersource - how much was it up and any reason why??? (sorry feeling lazy tonite lol)

overgrowth - 17 May 2005 22:42 - 31 of 1009

Up 11.27% - can't seem to find any particular reason.

Their quarterly results released on 9th May showed an increase of 31.7% over the 3 months to end of March in 2004.

It looks as though it's just general market sentiment which held the buyers back from the 9th May. Could be a good sign of better things to come during the rest of 2005 if buyers are flocking back in the US to non-defensive stocks.

Fundamentalist - 17 May 2005 23:45 - 32 of 1009

Thanks OG

just had a look myself - it opened up flat and was creeping up when at 12.00 it jumped up a lot then continued to creep up to the close.

it appeared tech stocks were generally higher in anticipation of hewlett packard results and new ceo statement, due after the bell - dont think this would explain 11% rise though

daves dazzlers - 18 May 2005 08:50 - 33 of 1009

Morning all still looking at rtd,as for the 26,,who knows but it looks like it could come round.

overgrowth - 18 May 2005 12:22 - 34 of 1009

Spreads today have been interesting to say the least - I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some rather large 'T' buys coming through over the next couple of days.

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 11:58 - 35 of 1009

Thanks go to mrgate on advfn for noticing this:

"U.K. online spending for April 05 1.3 BILLION!! Up 30% on April 04 which is fastest growth rate yet. Figs by I.R.G.released today!!"

RTD must be raking it in! There's going to be a break out soon...

Fred1new - 20 May 2005 12:04 - 36 of 1009

Agreed. If I wasn't already overweight in this share at the moment I would buy more, but it represents about 25% of my holding. It does look like triangle formation on the Chart. W/S and WTLC

overgrowth - 20 May 2005 21:48 - 37 of 1009

Hmmm - buys outweighing sells at more than 2 to 1 on a friday and the MMs drop the price - very suspect.

If they're filling a buy order it must be massive - if not then it looks like a gap up on Monday morning - good news either way.

Very soon this sp is going to spring up and take everyone by surprise - I reckon that when that happens it will be quick. Within a couple of weeks we'll see the price nudging 40p.
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