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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 15:17 - 180 of 1009

Og

would expect them to be "O" trades as the mms obviously had them from the GS cock-up

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 15:21 - 181 of 1009

Another little move up!!

This IS the storm coming

And it will be an upwards storm.

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 15:23 - 182 of 1009

Another up,
Guys its BLUE+

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 15:36 - 183 of 1009

Looks like it was the calm before the storm,sorry to place so many posts,am just sooohhh exited!

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 15:39 - 184 of 1009

Calm down capetwon - its only up 4% lol - what will you be like when it is up 20%, 30%, 50%.........

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 15:40 - 185 of 1009

BUY you a huge BOTTLE of bubbly!

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 15:41 - 186 of 1009

Hey fund,you really think it could go up that much?

overgrowth - 05 Jul 2005 15:47 - 187 of 1009

capetown - the generally accepted target price for 2005 is 45p and with the right news we'll see RTD climb much higher - hold on to your hat...

pachandl - 05 Jul 2005 15:52 - 188 of 1009

I turn my back for 30mins and suddenly the sp goes up. Will there be an accompanying rns tomorrow re an instituion increasing its stake?

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 15:58 - 189 of 1009

Capetown

depends on your timescale.

Like a lot of the others on here, i held RTD shares from when they were less than 10p - personally i sold on the last set of results, but as most know have been looking for a re-entry point. If you go back through this and the old thread you will see many posts with detailed numbers forecasting potential going forward.

I think any trading statement is likely to be positive but in the normal Clumpy subdued manner - historically RTD have been quite conservative at half yr then have issued a trading update late in the year saying they expect to beat forecasts - would not be surprised to see the pattern repeated this yr.

for me the two key things i want to see demonstrated is the translation of growth in transactions to turnover, profit and cash increases in the CNP business and a halt in the decline of the profit of the CP business. The fuel card business is transparent and performing very well (both interest rates and petrol prices are in its favour in addition to any organic growth)

as for future share price, if the potential of the CNP business is translated into profits then in 3 to 5 years time i would not be surprised if the share price had doubled or even trebled from its current position.

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 15:59 - 190 of 1009

pach

that or the trading update has been leaked and the RNS will come in the morning

pachandl - 05 Jul 2005 16:10 - 191 of 1009

Or both (one can but dream!).

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 16:36 - 192 of 1009

Did douggie go on holiday this morning ????? :-)

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 16:39 - 193 of 1009

Fundi,You happy with the rise this late afternoon then,i just knew it was coming when it went up this am on tiny volume,something is definateley going on.Promise to do less posting.

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 16:42 - 194 of 1009

Cape

feel free to post as often as you like :-)

partly happy but pi**ed off with IG - had to pay 30.5p rather than 30p but ho-hum - also only bought half of original holding back - the rest are now going to cost me a few quid more (especially if the trading update is out tomorrow morning as i would suspect on evidence of todays trading).

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 16:45 - 195 of 1009

Fundi,if you get a chance have a look at cby,c what you think

Fred1new - 05 Jul 2005 17:25 - 196 of 1009

I should think to-day will bring a little smile to Douggie's face. It has to mine.

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 17:50 - 197 of 1009

sorry for o/t guys

Cape

had a quick look at CBY - not the sort of share that interests me - mkt share less than 10m and too illiquid. Continues to be loss making and the long term chart is a bit ugly. That said brokers forecasts are positive with a single digit forward pe though personally would like to see confirmation of progress in the turnaround and the share price seems to be more than supported by the headline asset position though would want to examine closer the strength of the asset backing. Not for me but good luck with it

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 18:06 - 198 of 1009

CHEERS FUND,

Now back to rtd,another move of 6.7& would be good,

Thankyou very much for your opinion on the other.

overgrowth - 05 Jul 2005 18:31 - 199 of 1009

Have you seen that the last 1.5 million buy has now gone through guys ?

Onwards and upwards tomorrow...
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