**hi
Looks like this banking group will recover,, iam a contrian investor, money to be made here ,,,, BUY!!!!!!,,,,,,,,,

**hi
Looks like this banking group will recover,, iam a contrian investor, money to be made here ,,,, BUY!!!!!!,,,,,,,,,

thats not the name i was thinking of..... but there we are
..
/
~

Broker note from Merrill Lynch today:

"Less than 12 months into a bull market we reinstate coverage of the UK banks with three new Buys and reiterate our Buys on HSBC and Standard Chartered. We think bad debts peaked in 2009 and that the funding markets can continue to improve. This is not in consensus. While BIS will add to volatility, in our view it is a dividend issue not a dilution issue. As confidence about the book value and RoNAV grows in 2010 share prices should re-rate materially we have an average of over 40% upside to our 12-month POs, but think the sector can more than double over the next few years.

Funding is the key to recovery.
The biggest change over the past six months relates to the outlook for funding, yet as funding costs continue to fall the market remains concerned. We are more bullish, seeing the return of RMBS in 2010 and demand for c.640bn of bank issuance. A re-opening of the funding markets is key to the outlook for margins, as it should considerably ease the pressure on banks to collect deposits and, together with a modest pick-up in base rates, pave the way for a recovery in deposit spreads. Combined with the normalisation of bad debts, RoNAVs should start to recover, we think to c.15-20%.

BIS more about dividend growth than NAV dilution.
Taken at face value, the sectors capital ratios take a big step back under the BIS proposals, but stay comfortably above 4%, which we see as the minimum. We think the debate is more about when banks will be able to pay/grow dividends again, not whether BIS will force them to raise capital. On our forecasts all the UK banks are above 7% core Tier 1 by 2012, implying a step-up in payouts thereafter

We reinstate coverage on Barclays, Lloyds, RBS at Buy.
In our view, the market is currently using 2010E ROE as its basis for valuation. If we are correct on margins and the likely pace of bad debt normalisation, Barclays, Lloyds and RBS should re-rate strongly as we move through 2010 and into 2011. Based on our analysis Lloyds is the biggest beneficiary of an improved funding environment and is our top pick with c.51% upside; we are 3bn above PBT consensus in 2010. We reiterate Buys on HSBC and Standard Chartered. Both banks should rebalance towards higher valued earnings in 2010, and provide stability and growth our preferred pick of the pair is HSBC, where we are c.30% above consensus in 2010."

Broker note from Jon Kirk of Redburn:
"Thesis: Upgrade to Buy. LBGs recent wholesale funding successes allied with in-depth analysis of long-term funding costs and loan pricing lead us to make a margin-driven c30% increase in 2012 EPS. Positive surprises in UK commercial property also meaningfully lower near-term impairment charges.

LBG is disproving the bear case by funding independently and economically. We calculate that LBG must issue 35bn of >1 year wholesale funding in 2010. In January alone LBG raised 23% of this without state support, including seven-year money at a cost of 130bp vs new mortgage spreads of 190bp.
Margin upgrade adds c30% to 2012 EPS. We take into account a more conservative liability structure and higher funding costs. Loan pricing estimates are based on todays new business, historic pricing and an ROE cross-check analysis. Together this leads us to add 30bp (15%) to 2012 margin forecasts

LBGs other big problem, commercial property, ends 2009 on a high. UK prices rose 8% qoq in 4Q09, supported by peak-cycle levels of investment. The benign impact on loan impairments of an upgrade to our commercial property price forecasts cuts 2010 EPS losses by 44%.
LBG is well placed to cope with regulatory challenges. LBG can absorb worst-case Basel 3 impacts (including the ban on double counting) and still maintain its equity tier 1 above 10.5%. The banks liquidity position is appropriate: we estimate that just 6% of loans will be short-term wholesale funded by 2012.
2011E tangible book rises 10% to 62p. Target price is 92p, 68% upside."

FFS 48p Results need to be better than expectedend of monthor Baler might be asking when 30p??? I wish you all luck.Obamas promise to limit the size of banks and restrictions on riskier trading.will harm these greedy bas*ards.He added he was ready for a "fight" with any banks prepared to lobby against tougher regulations...and we will follow perfect conditions for Banks to get beaten upand shorted down.hope I am wrong!

am quite concerned tabs.... i might have to buy somemore..... ;)

Fair play to you BByou got more bottle than me most investors were pissed off being turned over once. but those that fancy the win double???.shame on Bankers for cheating you onceshame on you for letting them do it twiceand they are so blasin the process

in for the long haul tabs, this will come right in time, building up for that time...will only have to pass the 1.20 to be in profit now, then away we go..

Was not impressed this am when it continued to fall. All the brokers appear to be more positive on LLOY and BARC yet this one still keeps falling. My average is 52 so well under water right now. As you say a waiting game. The only Q is for how long? (:-((

Insurance sector being hit today & the LLOY insurance segment dragging them down. Appears to be unconnected to the banking sector of LLOY. (insurers probably targetted today as they have large bond exposure.)

Business Financial Newswire
Lloyds Banking has announced the sale of its 70% stake in esure, the online insurer, to a management buyout vehicle led by esure chairman Peter Wood, who founded it with the Halifax in 2000.

The deal is for a cash consideration slightly in excess of the 185m book value in the Lloyds accounts at December 31.

Esure, which includes the Sheilas' Wheels brand, had gross assets of 975.5m. Lloyds says the impact on its accounts is not expected to be material.

Archie Kane, Lloyds' executive director insurance, said, 'This sale means we can focus our efforts on our core general insurance brands of Halifax and Lloyds TSB.'

Lets face it guys with a mountain of bad debt - political uncertanty over its future independance - bad or shockingly bad management decision making - how can this survive as an investment option.
Its doomed to failure and nationalisation!

Who is entitled to buy?

Further to the announcement on 3 November 2009, pursuant to which Lloyds Banking Group plc ("Lloyds Banking Group") invited Holders of certain Existing Securities to Offer to Exchange their Existing Securities for Enhanced Capital Notes, or, in the case of the Non-U.S. Exchange Offer only, an Exchange Consideration Amount, Lloyds Banking Group hereby announces, inter alia, the form in which the Exchange Consideration will be settled and the New Shares Price, as set out in the Exchange Offer Memorandum dated 3 November 2009

Business Financial Newswire
"Lloyds Banking Group will issue 3,140,686,402 new shares on 18 February as part of the capital restructuring announced in November.

The new shares price is 0.486985 - a premium of 1.15% to the closing price of an ordinary share yesterday (11 February). "

Final results out on friday 26th Feb '10.
I wonder if they will have the same effect as the BARC results to their sp?

results better be good for shareholders to justify any bonus paid to Eric Daniels.

can we cross the red line today??

it is trying.....be good to get away from 50p.....and then a good week ahead