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DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Just updated my data for today's action.

S@P, DOW, Nas100, Ftse, DJEustox50 are all now
indicating a swing low in place.

Ftse is odd man out in one respect. Because it was closed
yesterday, it is the only one that has left a gap open higher
behind it because it played catch up with the rest on this
morning's open. Not all gaps get closed though.

Will be looking for long opportunities tomorrow to add to the
one I left open to cover the upside.

Dow 10350 and 10400 will cap any other rises until broken IMHO.

You on holiday, Zarif? Or just taking a break?
Unusual for you not to post on this thread.

Melnibone.

menibone and everybody:
Caught the blasted virus on my Pc yesterday and had to format the drive etc etc and just back online now.
Had to trade via dog and bone.

rgds
zarif

Afternoon everybody:
The Dow yesterday rallied up and then gave upo everything closing flat(we wont argue about a few points up within friends).It looks like an ominous sign -lull before the storm -the question is Is it going to storm UP or Pelt Down?
My gut feeling is that its going to POP and Drop -it might even forget the pop bit.So trade safely.Just my opinion-but then agin the market can do anything.

rgds
zarif

What i just dug up from the Saxo Bank site for Equities

Today's Stock Market View


Traders's Note: Yesterday saw yet another rally accompanied by yet another sell-off. In the pre-market, it looks like the bulls refuse to be kept down, as the market looks set for still another rally attempt. As long as we stay below upside swing levels, however, the downside potential still appears ominous.

Economic Items This Week:

Today: German Employment Data (slightly worse than expected), German Services PMI (slightly worse than expected), US ISM Services (out at 14:00 GMT), US Weekly Crude Oil Supplies (out at 14:30 GMT)
Thursday: German Services PMI, UK Services PMI, Bank of England Announces Rates, ECB Announces Interest Rates, German Factory Orders (Mar.), US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: German Industrial Production (Mar.), US Unemployment Rate (Apr.), US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr.), US Wholesale Inventories (Mar.), US Consumer Credit

Market Comments:
This market is white hot and is treacherous a one I have ever seen for the day trader. The short term glasses, if they haven't fogged up too badly, seem to allow for another rally attempt to as high as and possibly slightly exceeding yesterday's highs. Further out, I still expect this market to crumble, as long as we stay below the upside swing levels. The sell-offs have really cut deep for many stocks, but in down markets the rallies can really shake the bears with their momentum. So it appears we may have to white knuckle one more rise before we see a re-acceleration to the downside.

One reason for a possible rally would be the slightly more dovish than expected Fed statement, which seems to be allowing fixed income some wiggle room to the upside. This is also a relief for the stock market, at least very short term. Still, the inflation dragon is on the loose - as we will likely see in today's ISM Services Prices Paid number, and this Friday's employment report could rekindle its fiery breath (with a strong number) or could set in doubt the health of the economic recovery (with a weak number). And neither of those scenarios would seem to offer an upside exit for stocks.

All commentary in this section is for the June futures contract of each index.

DAX - the DAX made another feint at recent lows, but quickly found support this morning and rallied back above 4000. This rally could extend even further, possibly as high as 4050 before downside reappears. Further out, 3700 and lower may come into view for this market cycle. Trade Positioning: Short at 4050 with a 35-point stop.

FTSE-100 - the FTSE rallied a bit more than expected again and looks like it wants to try for a double top in the coming couple of days. The index could therefore make it as high as 4600 before selling off again - initially to 4470 support and then perhaps beyond to 4350 for the cycle. Trade Positioning: Stand aside.

Nasdaq-100 - The Nasdaq-100 rallied frantically in the wake of a slightly more dovish than expected Fed statement, but quickly sold off into the close. Overnight, the futures were way down, but now they have been bulled up nearly one percent from the lowest levels. This sharp rally may continue and bring the index as high as 1450 before it meets resistance and falls again. A break of the 1365 low could quickly bring 1250 into focus. Trade Positioning : Short at 1445 with a stop at 1467.

SPX – The SPX also rallied and sold off yesterday in the wake of the FOMC, and is in a rallying mood once again in pre-open trading today. There could be a bit more upside, and we could even go a hair beyond yesterday's best of 1127. Further out, the technicals argue for a retest of the 1085 low, which if it fails, could bring 1020 into focus to the downside. Trade Positioning: Sell at 1123 with a stop at 1136.

Dow - The Dow may rally again toward the 10350 area or slightly beyond, but further out, looks set for a retest of 10000. If that psychologically important level fails again, this could bring 9600 into view in the coming weeks. Trade Positioning: Short at 10350 with a stop at 10440.

John J. Hardy
Saxo Bank Market Strategies

Good read that, Zarif.

Roughly the way I'm looking at things. Not sure if his upside
before shorts are high enough on the S@P or Dow.
I'd look more to 1140 and 10,400 to cover more of the noisy
range on the P@F charts.

But my Delorean is no better than his. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone:
I agree with you as 10400 is where it has been running out of steam lately.If it breaches that decisively than its a totally different ball game.

rgds
zarif

ps: am long from earlier on and am taking the bus ride up and locking in as we go.

Just scalping today.

afternoon everybody:
the ftse,dax,cac etc etc all looking like ski slopes.
The Boe has raised interest rate by 25 bases points ECB has left it unchanged at 2.00%.
The Short from last night on the Dow is looking good.
I think we shall see decisiveness tomorrow after the Non farm payrolls. Other decision coming today.

I think on the SnP 1100 is the main level to watch for breakdown and 1125 in the mid and 1150 for a up up and away.

be careful today as there is no harm in sitting on the fence and just watching.

rgds
zarif

Dow/S@P/NDX 10220/1110/1400 holding up as support
at the moment.

Melnibone.

closed the short of earlier in good profit.
now just watching

zarif,

this thread is going too quiet. i enjoy keeping up with it, bring it back, it's the one i always read.....has everyone gone over the to TBB?

Not me, i'm just not trading the us indeces for a while.
Feel free to add your own comments.
I think zarif and Melnibone contribute on the Traders thread more often than here now.

There's not much to say really, Terod.

Indices are still range trading in the noisy area on the P@F
charts and the swing charts, although saying sell the pops,
aren't really that conclusive, IMHO.

Lot of margined traders are getting burnt trying to call the
noise and trend/swing traders haven't got much of a trend
to follow.

All I can say is, if we drop, then watch the last lows on the S@P.
The main year+ trend is still up until we do actually turn down.
And we haven't done that as yet.

Folk are saying sell because of the proposed interest rate hikes.
Fed's already said rises will be gradual in line with growth
and inflation.
So what are they saying?
If GDP/Profits/Employment are all rising then we get a market crash?
I'm no economist, but I think not.
What are we meant to do in a depression?
Fill yer boots with stocks? Lol.

Melnibone.

Afternoon all:
Nice to have u back on board terod.
snoball,melnibone a good afternoon to youy aswell.

The figures are good and before that they were crying about int.hike-now that it is probable they are crying.good news bad news no news -the YTm seems to do what it wants.
For me best thing is swithch the volume OFF on the gloomberg,Cnbc all these experts are "just fitting news to the item or the item to the news."
Watch the TA and Fa and let the market decide your moves.keep tight stops and if in doubt stay out -no harm in sitting on the fence -a no position is position of merit.

Me i am Indian (wrong continent -in fact Uganda, East Africa)by Birth and hence By Nature -Best at scalping.

Closed the long earlier and have got a short on at the moment.

IS there a Fed meeting on Today at 19.30 GMT today?


rgds
zarif

Please keep posting and adding as all advice good or bad is welcome.

good nite all:
have a good w/end.

WOW in DOW today on the shorts.

rgds
zarif

Dow has dropped over 30 points since the close. Why did I not short, as I was thinking about it?

Dow & S&P charts updated :-)

hi everyone, I'm not too hot with technical analysis but I see it this way, there's a lot of great news out there, the "quality" stocks I own are at their support levels, the "iffy" stocks have broken their supports.

the institutions are waiting for the stocks they want and then will start buying.

I think the Dow's gonna shake hands with 10k and then start going back up, this may coincide with lloyds saying hi to 4, hbos tipping it's hat to 7 etc etc I know i've only mentioned financial stocks but there they only ones I can think of at the moment as trying to watch friends.

Feel free to suggest with considered thought why I may be right, otherwise laugh out loud and degrade me if I'm wrong, I seriously won't mind, because I won't be able to read your posts, unless they will be tatooed on my shirtless back or engraved in the barrel I will be wearing.

Sounds pretty good to me bush.
An erudite and considered analysis as good as any other I've read except,
perhaps, those by Melnibone. :-)


Have you sacked Rumpsfeld yet?

Thanks Snoball

Not yet, waiting to see what the other photos look like, the last lot got mixed up with some family holidaying in Switzerland!