Amities . l have been discreetly buying this stock since it was 39p . And the more i learn the bolder are the positions i take . .....Floated in Dec 2004 it was oversubscribed and before costs the required $15 million was raised. At the helm is ex BP head of Global exploration and Resavoir management . Furthermore a success story at Global Expo . Now Nick Johnstone wants to set up on his own . And after speaking to him l am not at all surprised . He is like a "Who s Who " of the hydrocarbon world ...He has ALL the prerequisites for success so why work for some other lackey ! .. namely connections from his ertwhistle employers . He has assembled a first class management team from ex colleauges at BP ; and is his business model is simple . AFR farms in on "Big Oils " inception upstream ; and with its scale of economy it works closely with "Big oils" fields on the look out for excellent workovers oppertunities .... Already lt has via a complicated j/v a percentage of the Sao Tome and Principe acreage -Located between the oil rich waters of Nigeria and those of Sao Tome and operated by Texaco / Chevron and Esso; and believed by many to be the new North sea . . 3D Seismic testing and magnetic graphic imagery and satellite imaging has located a labyrinth of channels leading to a main resavoir which is believed to14-15 mmbbls of oil and which would leave AFR with its share of 120/140 million barrels for NO cash outlay .To ensure early cash generation Afren has entered into a production sharing agreement in the developed Ogedeh field { adjacent to the BP operated Olowi marin field which is believed to yield 180 mmbbloe. Furthernore AFR has agreed to drill the lbekelia project for Ascent resources which is expected to produce 2,500 b/pdoe to satisfy AFR percentile share ,ln addition it is a believed resouce of several years . .. , .Not a bad start for a company with little more than six months in the making . ....and well worthy of investigation !! .....@+ J

Just read the same article myself in a newsagent (i am tight lol). Personally I think the price target of 80-89 is a little low, considering this is the only oil exploration co. on the AIM that's expecting to begin production this year (as far as I'm aware) and given the absolutely top-notch management team (ex-OPEC Chairman and ex-BP exploration manager). I personally have a lot of confidence in the long-term potential of this company and its one Im prepared to sit on for a while.

Moi aussi.

IIRC they liken AFR to an early Paladin Resources.

If it grows in a similar fashion to Paladin, that will do me nicely, and you are correct Monsieur, it has to be;

A prise long terme d'achat

Seawallwalker ; Slt mon pote . Bon matins mon ami ..Je vois vos messages avoir pris quelche chose d'une savuer Gallique .Merci pour ta lettere. Bravo, tu t'en es tres bien . Un bon conseil -saiser la balle au bond.!!! ....... .. ln restating the facts -AFR has all neccassary prerequisites for success - Such as well known lucrative acreage , an expirienced and prestigious ultra successful " in the know" board, and senior management, with both access to funds as needed and finally AFR are ideally located to the markets of both the USA and Europe . ... Only one variable on the negative side and this should not be underplayed - geopolitics -; and that being the behavoir of insurgents causing more than a little concern and uncertainty in this region . eg ,,what with kidnappings and destruction of pipelines . and rebels hiving of oil themselves. .However Nigerian army is making sounds to clean up this mess in the northern delta .....thus allowing a whole plethora of junior oilees to mine without fear of rebels destroying newly built infrastructure.........................@+ J bien amicalment ...Lastly i cant personally see ANY similarities with Palladin ; but would be quite happy if AFR reach such lofty heights in terms of s/p .......Bonne chance

TheFrenchConnection . Oest le chapeau de ma tante ? Bonjour mon vieil ami , oavez-vous ? Assez de ceci et ce et des affaires arries, rllement je pas l'une ou l'autre len mon vieux compagnon ! Comme vous je serai tr heureux de voir une croissance semblable avec le cours d'actions cependant. La bonne chance toi aussi, et ne sont pas un ranger.

Suite bonne mes amis.

Tellement maintenant nous

Se de wiol onous allons cette semaine.

Bonne chance chacun

Those online translaters are very good if you want to make out you understand French, LOL

Certainly are!

I only did GCE so I am a bit limited.

Ou est la plume de ma tante and all that!

SW. The point is whats my aunts hat got do with all this ? lol aww . I aree; AFR could be a fantastic oppertunity @+ J

TFC - I am pleased you are back.

:-)

couple of big block sellers today; see they're being gobbled up nicely though by new buyers coming in.

Massive trade volume today anybody know whats going on.?
Any theories.?

nice 3% rise on 25m traded.

Lehman Bros reduced holding by approx 6 million yesterday; hence trading volume.

From another site rcp5 found it interesting read

FROM EQUITY GROWTH RESEARCH...
THE "MODESTLY VALUED" QUOTE IS VERY HEALTHY EH?
Afren
Afren, the oil and gas junior focused on the west coast of Africa, has a highly active
drilling programme. The news flow in 2007 has the potential to be truly exciting. In
the coming weeks the most significant development is likely to be an announcement
relating to the Okoro-3 side-track drilling results. The Okoro-Setu oilfield, discovered
in 1973, is located 10 to 15kms off the Nigerian coast in shallow water, close to the
Niger delta. Afren drilled the Okoro-3 vertical appraisal well about 1 kilometres
east of the original Okoro-1 well to evaluate the eastern extent of the field and
acquire the full range of data on the field. The Okoro-3 drilling results were promising
in that they duly confirmed the fields eastern extension along with well productivity
potential. Post well analysis suggested an increase in 2P reserves from 55m barrels
to 75m barrels gross or about 52m net.
The purpose of the Okoro-3 side-track well was to further evaluate the reservoirs.
We expect Afren to announce in the coming weeks that it will go ahead with
development of the Okoro-Setu field commencing in the third quarter of 2007.
Production should then start towards the end of the first quarter of 2008 at a rate of
15,000 b/d to 20,000 b/d using a FPSO (floating, production, storage and offloading)
vessel.
Afren also has another Nigerian offshore discovery to evaluate in the form of the
75% owned Ogedeh field. Appraisal drilling here is possible late in 2007 or early
2008. Ogedeh is considerably smaller than Okoro-Setu with estimated 2P reserves
of 5m to 15m barrels. Peak production could be around 6,000 b/d early in the next
decade.
Arguably, Afrens most prospective exploration drilling prospect is Doungou in the La
Noumbi concession in the Republic of Congo. The significance of Doungou is that it
is located on the Vandji sandstone fairway close to the MBoundi field, one of the
largest in Africa with reserves of 300m barrels. Doungou was first mapped by BP in
1990 and 2D seismic was shot last year. The operator, Maurel & Prom, has been
planning to drill Doungou in the coming months. Reserves have been estimated at
250m barrels. This would imply 35m barrels net to Afren based on its 14% stake in
the field. The La Noumbi concession also includes the 1982 Tie-Tie discovery which
flowed at 1689 b/d.
Afren has some further exploration potential along the Vandji fairway in Angolas
Cabinda enclave and Gabon. In the former, Afren has a 5% stake in onshore licence
Block B. The operator, Devon Energy, is planning to shoot seismic in 2007 and could
undertake exploration drilling in 2008. The Gabon interests revolve around the
Themis Marin and Iris Marin concessions located offshore in shallow water. Afrens
stake is 12.9% which was acquired from Heritage Oil last year. The concessions are
surrounded by established oilfields, including the Shell operated Gamba field and
are close to pipeline infrastructure. Sterling, the operator of Themis and Iris Marin, is
planning a drilling programme during the second quarter of 2007.
Afren has some potentially high impact acreage in Block 1 of the JDZ (Joint
Development Zone) located between Nigerian and Sao Tome and Principe waters in
the Gulf of Guinea. Its stake is 4.41%. Significantly, Block 1 adjoins the giant Akpo
and Egina discoveries made by Total in Nigerian waters which contain over 1bn
barrels of oil and in excess of 4 tcf of natural gas. The structure traps in Block 1 are
analogous to Akpo and Egina so exploration risk is believed to be low. Chevron, the
operator of Block 1, drilled the Obo-1 exploration well in early 2006 and
subsequently announced the discovery of hydrocarbons over 45m in multiple
reservoirs. There is the possibility of a further exploration well in the second half of
2007. Resources in Block 1 are tentatively put at up to 1bn barrels gross or 44m
barrels net to Afren.
Post the IPO on March 14, 2005 the peak for Afren came on April 20, 2006 when the
stock hit 87p/share. This coincided with speculation ahead of the Obo-1 discovery
Code AFR
Price 61p
12 mth range 41-87p
Market Cap 116.84m
SMALLER COMPANY REVIEW
8th February 2007
announcement. As for many of its peers, the stock slumped through the next two or
three months before bottoming in early July at 36p/share. Since July, the trend has
firmed with Afren trading at around 57p/share in early February 2007. Currently, we
regard Afren as modestly valued based on 2P reserves of 52m barrels and a fully
diluted market capitalisation of 124m. The price/barrel is 2.4 against a more
typical 5 to 6 for a company that is nearing production, as in the case of Afren. We
see excellent scope for appreciation in the stock in the event of the positive news
flow continuing.

What's everyone make of the management shake-up?

A post from Jack Brent on another board Chad

Had chance to speak with the company this morning regarding Brian's resignation and the new additions to the management team. Brian's returning to Ireland for personal reasons, appears he's been commuting from Ireland for some time. Think he'll be missed as he's done a fantastic job since he joined but as Osman Shahenshah is taking over the transition should be seamless. Osman was one of the three founders of Afren and Brian has worked closely with Afren over the last two years. Osmans strengths in particular financing, strategic and m&a, a critical skill set given Afrens stage of development and consolidation amongst the smaller players and portfolio rationalisation by the majors in Nigeria.

The new appointments obviously strengthen the management team even further with Evert Jan Mulder having the proven track record of increasing production from 30,000-75,000 bopd in 24 months. I think AFR have aspirations for that type of growth themselves over the next 18 months. Didier Lechartier was responsible for the production start up of the m'boundi field, which is currently producing over 50,000 bopd. AFR are extremely well connected in the Republic of Congo and feel there are opportunities for significant growth there. Didier Lechartiers relatioships complement the existing high level relationships. Dr lukman and the management team's visit to Congo to meet with the President Denis Sassou Nguesso in summer last year was the first reception of its kind by a foreign oil company.

Also worth noting is that whilst Maurel et Prom recently sold off some of their assets within the Republic of Congo they elected to retain the La Noumbi prospect which is quite an endorsement to the exploration prospects.

It's obvious that Afren are entering a new phase of growth which is development and production driven. The drilling development plans have been submitted to the Nigerian government and i think they've located an fpso. Confirmation of this together with reserved based lending together with NSA independent reserves will come out within the next five to six weeks. hopefully this should bring the shareprice closer to the brokers nav estimates.

Asked about the JZZ and further drilling plans, it appears that Chevron and Exxon have different opinions on how to proceed. I think the general feeling is that exxon would like to see results from a drill in block 2 before deciding upon timing and location of further block 1 drilling.

other interesting points include that the London Stock Exchange has moved AFR from the seaq to sets trading. this, should be beneficial in that it will reduce the spread on the sp and that also attracts more north american investors who are somewhat mystified by the seaq trading platform. I think it was offered to the company based on the increase in trading volume / liquidity and is only offered to those on the FTSE all share under normal circumstances.


Lehman bros (glg) reduced their holding given their exposure on the convertible bond (they now have $50 million of the $75 million, having taken on Amaranths holding after it imploded). The original long equity in addition to that under the convertible would be in excess of the maximum allowable holding in any one particular stock (they have the option to convert into equity at 60p). What is positive is that the holding was reduced, while the share price increased, which is a signal for the liquidity and demand of the stock.

The company is still on the aquisition trail, but they are focusing on their value add relationships in West Africa and will not consider any transaction where asset quality is questionable. Focus is on develoment/producing assets. Should see news new ventures news this year. Finally asked if there were any plans for the company to move to the main board. it's something the company see as a long term target but will most likely make the move once they have significant production under their belt.

Very promising indeed.

Regards, JB

I make nothing of the Management shakeup as we have only what has been released by AFR in the RNS and we can guess to out hearts content and still not be anywhere near any other reason than that given.

The appointments looks strong so I don't intend to worry.

Nice post from JB.

If you visit here, thanks.

Yea cheers for that.

afr goes mp10, anyone got any comments?

Lots of sells today, any reason?