how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

afternoon gang:
The futures are looking Ok atm and the "sea of Red"seems to have vanished on the European Bourses. As melnibone Quite correctly pointed out:
Dow/S@P/NDX circa 10,000/1085/1400.
Ftse futures back above 4400.
Dax futures back at 3800.

Also as Snoball says "watch the Bounce"

As always be careful and trade wisely and safely.

rgds
zarif

If you look at 2 day charts, the US indices seem to be
stalling out at yesterdays trading highs.

MA's are slowly moving up. Don't know if we'll break these
highs when everything 'catches up', or if we reverse again.

Dow doesn't seem to want to move far from 10,000.

Melnibone.

Melnibone: You are right the dow is reluctant to move away from 10000 area.Best to watch rather than pre-empt the move.Best to Jump on the bus when you know which direction and destination its going to.(we dont want to board the wrong one and wrong destination).I think also after the bell CISCO is reporting.

rgds
zarif

Cisco is meant to be beating the street.

If it mucks up, longs will be jumping overboard, closely
pursuing the rats.:-)

I would have expected more short covering than this, today.
It begs the question, how much of the fall is longer term hedging
and actual institutional selling rather than short term trading
shorts?

Melnibone.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^GSPC&d=c&k=c3&a=fs,ss,w14&p=e10,e20,e50,e100&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l

Nice knot forming on the EMA's.
Which way's it going to break?

Melnibone.

X

1160

X

X

O

X

1150

X

O

X

O

X

O

1140

X

O

X

O

X

O

1130

X

O

O

X

O

1120

X

O

X

O

1110

X

O

X

O

1100

X

O

O

1090

X

O

1080

X

1070

X

X

1060

X

X

O

X

1050

X

X

O

X

O

X

1040

X

O

X

O

X

O

1030

X

O

X

O

1020

X

X

X

O

X

1010

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

1000

X

O

X

O

X

O

990

X

O

X

O

X

980

X

O

O

970

X

960

X

950

X

940

X

930

X

920

X

910

X

X

900

X

O

X

890

Getting to the point where this is starting to look genuine after today's failure

to squeeze back higher.

Melnibone.

melnibone i agree with your pnf chart -looks like it has more likelyhood of an upside bias.

rgds
zarif

But look at the last 4 columns compared with the uptrend.
We're starting to get lower highs and lower lows, and that's
with the P@F chart ignoring the noise.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of the 1030/1060 area
the way this is going.
That would equate to somewhere near 9600/9700 on the Dow.

Swing charts are now also starting to turn negative on FTSE/DOW/NDX.

Melnibone.

melnibone -just an extract from Tom Hougards email.
There is support around the following numbers for the snp



1084 = previous low



1074 = 89 Points from high of the year



1061 = 50% retracement

Thanks for that, Zarif?

So what are you looking for, a 3 box retracement to 1130/1140
area?
Or test of the previous lows before a retracement higher?

Melnibone.

Melnibone my idea is more along the lines of a retracement of prevoius lows than higher.

Ym auction open.
What are your views for today?
Just watching atm.

rgds
zarif

copy of the saxo bank analysis on equities
Stock Market View:

May 12, 2004 - Europe



- The yen advanced in Asia and was headed for its biggest gain against the euro in more than two weeks after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced, spurring demand for the currency to buy shares. The Nikkei rose by as much as 1.6 percent after yesterday ending a six-day losing streak. The yen also gained after the OECD yesterday raised its forecast for Japanese growth this year and lowered the outlook for the 12-nation region sharing the euro. A report tomorrow is expected to show a gain in Japanese machinery orders. The yen rose to 112.65 per dollar at 1:43 p.m. in Tokyo, from 113.16 yen late yesterday in New York. It also gained to 133.71 per euro, from 134.33.


- Japan sold a record 14.8 trillion yen ($131 billion) to buy U.S. dollars in the three months ended March 31, according to a report released by the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo. The sales were a record for a single quarter, a ministry official said. For the fiscal year ended March 31, Japan sold 32.9 trillion yen, also a record, the official said. Japan has been selling its currency to stem the yen's gain against the dollar, which may hurt exporters by eroding the value of overseas sales and makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad. The ministry asks the Bank of Japan to buy or sell currency on its behalf.





Equity Market Summary -


The Dow climbs back over 10,000. Stocks finished higher after enduring a rough day yesterday. The Dow gained 29 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 10,019, while the S&P rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.9%. In the absence of any significant economic news, the rebound today likely indicates investors were hunting for bargains after the equity market sold off on Monday due to concerns about conditions in Iraq, the prospect of higher interest rates, rising oil prices, and increasingly desperate actions in China to curb the excesses of that economys boom.

The Nasdaq posted a very impressive increase today and more than erased yesterday's losses, boosted by continuing strength in the SOX semiconductor index (SOX 470.15 +11.25).

The S&P manage to recoup about three-fourths of yesterday's loss, while the Dow struggled to post a modest gain that still left the index slightly below 10,000...this was despite the fact that two Dow stocks got boosts from analysts...ExxonMobil (XOM 42.45) and Disney (DIS 23.03) got upgrades to "buys" from major firms...Altria (MO 53.35 -1.35), however, hurt the index as it warned of lower than expected profits for 2004.

The U.S. stock recovery was a broad rebound from recent losses spurred by bargain hunting as much as any specific news, as advancing issues greatly outpaced declining issues..

European equity markets ended the day in the black. Markets bounced back strongly from yesterdays losses. The FTSE 100 in London added 1.4% for the day while the DAX in Frankfurt closed 1.7% higher and the CAC 40 ended the day up 1.5%. European equity markets benefited from a cautiously optimistic opening on Wall Street and solid corporate results, which offset concerns relating to the prospect of higher interest rates. Tech stocks and financials were leading the way.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index found support at 3780 -- a small uptick did reach 3850. But it will likely be followed by further declines to 3720 - 3690. Further out, the objective may be the area of 3600.


- FTSE 100 Index - a small uptick extended to 4450 and may reach 4460. But further declines to the area of 4360 should follow. Further out, the target seems to be the area of 4290 - 4275.


- S&P 500 - The S&P 500 index did bounce back to 1095 and may extend gains to 1100. But the downtrend should resume thereafter, which should break through 1080 support and should subsequently target 1065 - 1060.


- Dow - The Dow did reach 10.025 and may extend to 10,060. But the average will probably fall further, take out the 9930 support and push through to 9800 later in the week.


- NDX 100 - the index bounce higher than expected and may reach 1430 before resuming the downtrend. The downtrend should thereafter follow-through to the 1365 base then further to 1340.


- Nikkei - the index corrects back to 11,200 - 11,250, but the downtrend should reassert thereafter. The next sell-off should go for the 10,400 area; further out, we are focusing at the 9600 level as next primary target.


- Hang Seng - the index went to as low as 11,350, and may recover towards 11,700. But the sell-off will likely extend further -- the main focus now is the area of 10,750.






=======================================



May 11, 2004 - New York



- European stocks rose as optimism that profit will grow regardless of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates helped the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index rebound from its biggest loss in two months. The Stoxx 50 Index rose 0.4 percent to 2670.66 at 11:43 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.5 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries that share the euro, added 0.9 percent.


- U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in March for a second month, suggesting industry is still struggling to pull out of its slump. Factory output, a fifth of the economy, dropped 0.3 percent following a revised 0.5 percent fall in February, the Office for National Statistics in London said. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent gain, with none expecting a decline. From a year earlier, manufacturing increased 0.4 percent. Consumer spending is fueling growth in Europe's second- largest economy while manufacturing has lagged. A faltering recovery in the dozen-nation euro economy, Britain's biggest trading partner, and the rise in the pound have crimped exports. Still, business surveys show industry improving over the past six months.



Indications in the U.S. stock market :

The stage remains set for a higher open as the futures market lifts to its best levels of the morning. The early favorable sentiment is largely a rebound effort from the market's slide over the past month, although upgrades of DIS at UBS and XOM at AG Edwards are acting as supporting factors.

Futures indications are slightly higher this morning in a rebound from yesterday's losses spanning 1.1-1.3% for the major averages. Overseas markets are also sporting mild gains on the heels of yesterday's broad-based pullback.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index has indeed been to as low as 3780 -- a small uptick has reached 3840 and may reach 3850. But it will likely be followed by further declines to 3720 - 3690. Further out, the objective may be the area of 3600.


- FTSE 100 Index - a small uptick to 4430 may extend to 4440 but it may be followed by further declines to the area of 4360 should follow. Further out, the target seems to be the area of 4290 - 4275.


- S&P 500 - The S&P 500 index may bounce back to 1095 area but the downtrend should resume thereafter, which should break through 1080 support and should subsequently target 1065 - 1060.


- Dow - The Dow may bounce back further and reach 10.025. But the average will probably fall further, take out the 9930 support and push through to 9800 later in the week.


- NDX 100 - the index may bounce back to 1405 early on, but the downtrend reasserts thereafter, and should thereafter follow-through to the 1365 base then further to 1340.


- Nikkei - the downtrend pauses and the index may rally back to 11,100, but the next sell-off should take place soon thereafter. Intermediate support is located at 10,400 area, but we now start focusing at the 9600 level as next primary target.


- Hang Seng - the sell-off accelerated, went to as low as 11,475, and recovers somewhat to 11,600. But the sell-off will likely extend further -- the main focus now is the area of 10,750.

Nice read Zarif, bearish set of devils at Saxo, aren't they?

Can't argue with their trends, but when you reach supports, like
this, I think that you should be wary of calling for an automatic
continuation of trends. Lots of folk get caught going short at
support or long at resistance. Need to wait for confirmation and
a retest, IMHO, before calling a range breakout.

Melnibone. (Cautious as ever)

Melnibone u r quite right -always best to let the market decide our actions and once the support has been truly breached then make a move.As u said in your earlier posts -decide on the stop and risk/reward before entering the trade.
me just scalping atm.

rgds
zarif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=

Just logged back on.
I see the S@P bounced back strongly from the 200Day EMA.
Dow now back above 10,000
NDX now back above 1400
S@P now back above the 1085 support.
Ho hum!

Now to see where they close.


Melnibone.

Still going up.

My Ftse Blue Chip longs that I added to just before the
close are going to look rather tasty tomorrow. :-))

Squeeze 'dem' Bears, Big Daddy US. :-)

Melnibone.

afternoon everybody:
I had opened a long about 3.15pm prior to going out on the dow and -the gods must be smiling as closed it out in good profit.
Just watching atm.

rgds

ps: all the boards look quiet today?

zarif

Good day for longs, zarif and maybe some shorts as well.

Snoball u r right - iam onto a short at the moment.i think best to scalp in and out and definitely not to get too greedy as than u watch it all slip away.

rgds
zarif