ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Took a little profit today as I've been concerned by the soutwards SP drift of recent weeks but have maintained the majority of my holding.

Suspect the drift south is lack of news. Thought there might be a trading statement before the close period which has presumably started; so unlikely to be any news until June. sd will probably confirm that the chart is a flag preparing for the next push north when there is reason for it, hopefully with results and trading statement. The other question is: what is the next ASOS move. Why not the US as their formula would suit and the entry costs are probably not that high. Note their sub-contrating of distribution.

Eric

Eric, 'fraid not. I think the cahrt shows a downward trend since the peak of 105p in early March, followed by successive lower lows and a lower high. In fact with the 20dma runing below the 40 dma and the SP having crossed below 95p previous low is a short signal which many may have taken advantage of, thus exacerbating the problem - or encouraging the MMs to lure shorters in further before pouncing back at them!

Given a 2 year view on good earnings growth and low PEG, with high liquidity, growing Margins and high ROCE, who cares abuut today's price, unless you are planning a little shopping spree in the market.

Would have been comforting to have a pre-close update, but does not alter fundamentals.

sd

Suspect you are right re the chart. In other words it is now in a definite downward trend and will need positive news to get it to re-assume the upward trend. It would be good to buy and tuck away for a year or two. Assume finals will be June which should also give prospects and certainly any new business initiatives. Could be that the high of 105p could be tested in advance if there are significant bulls around; the share should be held now by quite a number of institutions.

Eric

2 seperate newspaper write ups over the holiday period should see another up day 1/was vague bid talk 2/ the paper that said sell half way up the trend now admits he advised to sell to early now it is at near a 52 week high HE SAYS BUY.LOL

There was also a piece in the Times on Monday commenting in the price rise last week. It claimed that reasons included: (a) trading and prospects ahead of expectations; (b) Amazon planning to enter fashion market and presumably utilising ASOS as a vehicle. All looks good ahead of results.

Eric

eric roll on the results

Is that 'roll on the results laughing all over' as in RORLAO?

nice one eric

Just thought I'd bring this back to the top of the list with the following RNS issued to day.

In spite of being some 600k operating profit less than forecast due largely to spreading of the insurance claim, the numbers are pretty exciting. Operating margin has grown from 6.2% to 8.3% and will probably hit 10% plus this year. PE is high at 45, but the PEG at 0.50 is totally respectable for a growth story. Return on capital is a very impressive 37%.

This year, with turnover 74% higher and margin at 10% gives an operating profit of 3.34m, more than double last year. With interest earned of, say, 100k, and tax, at 30% after deduction of carried forward losses, of 0.96m, PE reduces to about 30 with PEG at a quite acceptable 0.6. Return on capital will be 38%, as good as last year.

There was net cash on the BS at 31st March 2005 of 2.06m. This will have been nearer 3.72m at March 2006 and over 6m by March 2007. What will Nick Robertson do with all that lolly - no doubt the question of dividends will be uppermost in his mind, to fully develop this company into a classic growth story to hold for the next 2-3 years and maybe beyond. Thereafter, who knows how he will choose to expand the business.

sd


RNS Number:7039C
ASOS PLC
10 May 2006


FOR RELEASE 7.00 am 10 May 2006



ASOS plc

(" ASOS" or "Group")

A leading Internet based fashion retailer


Trading Statement for the year ended 31 March 2006



* Despite the previously reported impact to the business resulting
from the Buncefield Fuel Depot explosion in December 2005, ASOS.com
sales up 42% and profit expected to be not less than 1.6m

* Insurance claim proceeds phased over two accounting periods -
further 0.6m insurance monies due during 6 months to 30 September 2006

* Strong start to new financial year - ASOS.com sales for the six
weeks ended 7 May 2006 up 74% year on year

* Confident of another strong year of growth



Nick Robertson, the Chief Executive, made the following comments:


I am pleased to report that, despite not trading over the Christmas period
following the Buncefield Fuel Depot Explosion which caused damage to our Hemel
Hempstead warehouse, ASOS.com recorded a 42% increase in sales and profit before
tax and amortisation of goodwill for the year to 31 March 2006 will be not less
than 1.6m. The profit is less than previously advised due to the phasing of the
Buncefield Insurance claim proceeds. Further receipts totalling 0.6m will be
accounted for in the 6 month period to 30 September 2006 rather than the year
ended 31 March 2006 as previously anticipated.


I would like to take this opportunity to thank our insurers, Fusion Insurance
Services Ltd, for their continued support and assistance.


Encouragingly, sales since the year end have been particularly strong with
ASOS.com recording a 74% year on year increase in sales for the six weeks ended
7 May 2006.


With the continued growth in online shopping and the increasing awareness and
popularity of ASOS amongst its target market, I remain confident about the
prospects for ASOS and look forward to a strong year of growth.


Final results for the year to 31 March 2006 will be released in the first week
of July.

stockdog thanks for update what is encouraging today there has not been a sell off on the news at the time of this post.

My thoughts too - thought there might have been a bit of a sell off from at least the short-term johnnies, but the price held up well on higher volume than the last 6 weeks.

If we can consolidate around the 105p mark for a while we should take off to nearer 120p as the next leg up.

This is no longer a share you need to watch on a daily basis IMHO (just try and stop me!) - it's a good solid hold unless there is bad news. But having survived Xmas trading 2004 with too little warehouse space and Xmas 2006 when there was a massive fire, I think the news would have to be pretty bad to stop this one in its tracks.

Speculating further on 50% increase in turnover for 2008 with an improved margin of 11% and interest earned of 150k, fully taxed at 30%, gives an increase in net profit of 60% and a PE of 19 and PEG of 0.32. Allowing a PEG of 0.60, suggests a PE of 36 which suggests an SP of 199p. Can't possibly tell where it will be by then, but the scope for further growth in SP is certainly there and all being equal we could see another 50% rise over the next 12 months and the same again the following year.

All the above statistics are greatly improved by stripping out the cash on the BS and looking at the enterprise value instread of the market cap. The real test of the management is what they manage to do with their surplus funds in the next year or two. I have confidence that they will pass the test. Equally we must surely have a great safety net in terms of who might want to acquire ASC - M&S, House Of Fraser, TESCO, even ASDA?? That would have to be at a decent premium to the current SP.

Dreeeaaaamm, dream
Dream, dream, dreeaam . . .

sd

taken from independent
Asos back in fashion after Buncefield fire
By James Daley
Published: 11 May 2006
Asos, the virtual fashion chain, revealed yesterday it had bounced back from a damaging fire at its main warehouse in December, as it unveiled a 42 per cent increase in sales for the year to the end of March.

Although the group revealed slightly lower-than-expected full-year profits of 1.6m, it said this was because of the fact that insurance payouts from the fire were being staggered. A final payment of 600,000, which the company had expected to be paid before the end of March, will now be paid over the coming months.

The warehouse was damaged after the fuel depot explosion at Buncefield in Hertfordshire just before Christmas, throwing the business into turmoil during what were the most important few weeks of its financial year. The shares were suspended and Asos was forced to stop trading for several weeks. It reopened for business in the middle of January.

The company's insurers agreed to make a full payout, covering the loss to profits and the loss of assets at the warehouse.

Commenting on yesterday's results, Nick Robertson, the chief executive, said: "I am pleased to report that despite not trading over the Christmas period following the Buncefield fuel depot explosion, which caused damage to our Hemel Hempstead warehouse, Asos.com recorded a 42 per cent increase in sales ... for the year to 31 March.

"With the continued growth in online shopping and the increasing awareness and the popularity of Asos amongst its target market, I remain confident about the prospects for Asos and look forward to a strong year of growth."

Shareholders and analysts were encouraged by the news that sales since the end of March had grown even faster than anticipated. For the six weeks to 7 May, the company said sales had increased 74 per cent, adding it was confident of achieving another year of strong growth.

Analysts at Investec said they were predicting a 35 per cent increase in sales for the first half, as consumer confidence returns in the UK. They added that they also expect margins to grow considerably.

Shares in the company increased 0.5p on yesterday's news to 105.5p, giving the company a market value of 105m.

You're right Woodie - it was worth saying twice - lol!

sd

sorry for oversight

Thanks for the very helpful posts, sd and Woodie. Volume not large today but quite a bit if smnall investor buying; clearly none of the larger holdes have been shaken out. Reall confirms your view, sd, that this is now a stable share beloved of the fund managers who like the share with a cap of around 100m which they can see growing consistently over a period of years. In a way, it would be a shame if it was bought out: even a price of 2 now would look porr compared with a cap. of 500m in 4 or 5 years time. There share of the total fashion market is still relatively small; we know that there is a rapid trasfer of purchasing to the Internet; there are other routes to the market, e.g. Amazon; the cost of entry to other markets, eg. U.S., is relatively low; cash is available for any selected expansion.

It is interesting re the deferred insurance: this may be that the actual amount needs the audited figures for the year. With that figure included we would have had 100% improvement in pbt.

I expect the price to remain firm up to the results in first week of July. We should hear then about dividend policy and I would also expect an indication of how the cash mountain is to be utilised. There is unlikely to be anything disappointing so that the rise could gather pace as confidence grows. I did switch part of my holding into DEBT so, ideally, there might be a good profit-taking point in June for them and then switch back for further good news.

Eric

ASOS PLC
04 July 2006


FOR RELEASE
7.00 am
Tuesday 4 July 2006


ASOS plc
'ASOS' or 'Group'
('A leading Internet based fashion retailer')


RECORD RESULTS

RESULTS

Group sales +39% to 18.80m
Group profit before tax and amortisation of goodwill + 49% to 1.65m
Group profit before tax + 61% to 1.42m
Remaining insurance proceeds of 0.60m expected in the six months to 30
September 2006
Cash at bank +82% to 3.74m
Fully diluted EPS before tax and goodwill amortisation +47% to 2.2p
ASOS.com registered users +60% to 960,000 (as at 2 July 2006)
Sales for the 13 weeks to 2 July 2006 are 65% ahead of last year



HIGHLIGHTS

Continued strong growth
Investment in the future - people, systems and logistics
Resilience of business - recovery from Buncefield
Confident of another strong year

I put the fall in SP down to mark down's by MMs to encourage loose holders to sell on results, although my own brief analysis tells me to keep holding. The bulk of transactions have been buys/unknowns - quite low volume marked as sells.

A PE of 51 with growth of only 46% in EPS gives a seemingly lack lustre PEG of 1.1, a margin of 7.2% and ROCE of 27%. Taking the chairman's somewhat speculative comments and extrapolating to the 25m turnover and 2.2m pre-tax profit that might have been, gives respective figures, I estimate, of 31, 140%, 0.22, 8.4% and 42% - a totally respectable set of stats for this growth share, heading towards a first dividend for year ending March 2007(??)

Next year will be somewhat decelerated by the affect of paying coroporation tax for the first time on the bulk of profits. But if the results reflect the projected 36% increase in on-line shopping from the 25m mark to a turnover of 34m and an estimated net profit after tax of 2.82m with EPS of 3.92p, growth of 25% and a PE of 25, margin of 12.2% and ROCE of 53%. Great figures, although showing signs of ex-growth with a PEG of 1.0. However, first quarter of this year is showing 65% growth over last year - albeit from an artifically low base pre-new warehouse. So there is every hope that results will be better than the overall market increase in trading, continuing to keep this share in my long-term hold portfolio.

Just leaves me to ponder what catastrophe can befall this on-line retailer next spring - since we know they travel in threes!

All contrary views welcome.

sd

Not a contrary view - I think ASC has worked wonders again, and really shown the doubters in the markets after the fire what a fine company this really is.

just shows what a difference a year makes,this time last year there was at least 1 post a day .