overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 15:39
- 184 of 1009
Calm down capetwon - its only up 4% lol - what will you be like when it is up 20%, 30%, 50%.........
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 15:40
- 185 of 1009
BUY you a huge BOTTLE of bubbly!
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 15:41
- 186 of 1009
Hey fund,you really think it could go up that much?
pachandl
- 05 Jul 2005 15:52
- 188 of 1009
I turn my back for 30mins and suddenly the sp goes up. Will there be an accompanying rns tomorrow re an instituion increasing its stake?
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 15:58
- 189 of 1009
Capetown
depends on your timescale.
Like a lot of the others on here, i held RTD shares from when they were less than 10p - personally i sold on the last set of results, but as most know have been looking for a re-entry point. If you go back through this and the old thread you will see many posts with detailed numbers forecasting potential going forward.
I think any trading statement is likely to be positive but in the normal Clumpy subdued manner - historically RTD have been quite conservative at half yr then have issued a trading update late in the year saying they expect to beat forecasts - would not be surprised to see the pattern repeated this yr.
for me the two key things i want to see demonstrated is the translation of growth in transactions to turnover, profit and cash increases in the CNP business and a halt in the decline of the profit of the CP business. The fuel card business is transparent and performing very well (both interest rates and petrol prices are in its favour in addition to any organic growth)
as for future share price, if the potential of the CNP business is translated into profits then in 3 to 5 years time i would not be surprised if the share price had doubled or even trebled from its current position.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 15:59
- 190 of 1009
pach
that or the trading update has been leaked and the RNS will come in the morning
pachandl
- 05 Jul 2005 16:10
- 191 of 1009
Or both (one can but dream!).
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 16:36
- 192 of 1009
Did douggie go on holiday this morning ????? :-)
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 16:39
- 193 of 1009
Fundi,You happy with the rise this late afternoon then,i just knew it was coming when it went up this am on tiny volume,something is definateley going on.Promise to do less posting.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 16:42
- 194 of 1009
Cape
feel free to post as often as you like :-)
partly happy but pi**ed off with IG - had to pay 30.5p rather than 30p but ho-hum - also only bought half of original holding back - the rest are now going to cost me a few quid more (especially if the trading update is out tomorrow morning as i would suspect on evidence of todays trading).
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 16:45
- 195 of 1009
Fundi,if you get a chance have a look at cby,c what you think
Fred1new
- 05 Jul 2005 17:25
- 196 of 1009
I should think to-day will bring a little smile to Douggie's face. It has to mine.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 17:50
- 197 of 1009
sorry for o/t guys
Cape
had a quick look at CBY - not the sort of share that interests me - mkt share less than 10m and too illiquid. Continues to be loss making and the long term chart is a bit ugly. That said brokers forecasts are positive with a single digit forward pe though personally would like to see confirmation of progress in the turnaround and the share price seems to be more than supported by the headline asset position though would want to examine closer the strength of the asset backing. Not for me but good luck with it
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 18:06
- 198 of 1009
CHEERS FUND,
Now back to rtd,another move of 6.7& would be good,
Thankyou very much for your opinion on the other.
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 18:55
- 200 of 1009
OG - that was me buying back half of my holding :-))))
Fundamentalist
- 05 Jul 2005 19:40
- 202 of 1009
OG - i think the phrase in my dreams springs to mind lol
Fred1new
- 05 Jul 2005 22:38
- 203 of 1009
Fundy, Is that all you bought. Cheap skate.