The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

According to David Horgan, OGI is nothing more than a cash shell in need of backers, would the Iraqi offcials take such a risk with their own projects? If the answer is no then surely OGI have got backing and it must be technically ahead of PET.


extract from lemmings update 16-12-04

DH had this to say; Reading the latest Reuters piece it seems that the two names went forward for approval but that no award has actually been made. Also, I suspect that the Canadian group should be OGI (an ad-hoc Calgary Arab group looking for backers) rather than Ironhorse, which is a shell. For the last year, the Ministry had stressed that they wanted the best technology that would operate in a challenging environment. We accordingly pulled together the best suppliers (GE, Hanover, Weatherford, etc.) and solution.

On the technical side

We are confident that we will not be beaten technically - indeed we were told this at the technical discussions recently. But it is in a war zone and we have included a contingency and a risk-adjusted return. The Ministry engineers seemed impressed at our submissions.

According to David Horgan, OGI is nothing more than a cash shell in need of backers, would the Iraqi offcials take such a risk with their own projects? If the answer is no then surely OGI have got backing and it must be technically ahead of PET.


extract from lemmings update 16-12-04

DH had this to say; Reading the latest Reuters piece it seems that the two names went forward for approval but that no award has actually been made. Also, I suspect that the Canadian group should be OGI (an ad-hoc Calgary Arab group looking for backers) rather than Ironhorse, which is a shell. For the last year, the Ministry had stressed that they wanted the best technology that would operate in a challenging environment. We accordingly pulled together the best suppliers (GE, Hanover, Weatherford, etc.) and solution.

On the technical side

We are confident that we will not be beaten technically - indeed we were told this at the technical discussions recently. But it is in a war zone and we have included a contingency and a risk-adjusted return. The Ministry engineers seemed impressed at our submissions.

jonny english,
look at the punctuation, "rather than ironhorse, which is a cash shell". although i hope you are right,
dexter

Post from Vancouver - Mary, my Mrs, taken to hospital; quite a scare but it is Pancreitis which is not life-threatening. However, puts things like PET into perspective.

Helpful post from you, Kellman. I hope that the contretemps is over now. The explanation is probably part of the truth. I see two main reasons why PET have lost out (assuming that to be the case): the first is the placing of the contracts to Muslim countries; the second is price- it may be that the Saudi and Turkish bidders felt less need to put such a high risk allowance in their bids.

Lets assume that is the case. Whither PET and their share price? Positive from the last three days is Horgan's comments, particularly their progress in Iraq. The Jordan deal is progress: I see it as the rights to explore without ownership but that it would be quite likely to lead to a development contract. Perhaps more important is the likely reason for PET winning this contract is their linkage to Block 6 in Iraq. I suspect it is a matter for the new government and it may take a while therefore for the licence to be restored. However, I would base a fundamental analysis on Block 6 rights being restored. Suba-Luhais would be a lower probability. Sudan, something of an unknown, but could be another Jordan. My approach is to zero or one each option. Block 6 an Jordan would be 1 and Suba-Luhais and Syria, together with Khurmala Dome and Hamrin, 0.

I am trying to refine my investment approach with the help of johngtudor, to a combination of fundamentalist and technical analyst. I would appreciate comments from John, also any others with views to express.

First, as fundamentalist. Cap of PET is 25m pounds at 42.5p. Not very demanding. Once they have a drilling programme in place then the price should be higher based on a probability assessment of striking oil. Jordan is a longshot at the moment, so we come back to Block 6 where probabilities are quite high (Tokyo et al.?). I rate PET as a good stock to hold on this basis, and probably higher, say, than PCI. The hype has gone out of the price so, is it a good time to invest? That leads to:

Second, as chartist (novice!), Lets cut out the hype period and take the trend lines from January. As fundamentalist, I say there is plenty to go for as would be the perception entering 2004. Projecting the peaks and troughs says that the price should be in 55p to 75p range. Thus the fall has been overdone and PET is a speculative buy at prices between 40p and 60p.

I hope this helps to restore the rational debate of this excellent column. My question is, accepting that I am a market trader and not just holding a stake in the company as a long-tern investor, at what price would you (a) buy PET and (b) sell PET?

Eric

Pancreatitis is a life-threatening condition, Eric. It can be fatal if management is not prompt. Hope your wife has a quick recovery.

hyleo

Thanks for your concern. She is responding well to care which is largely a starvation diet - ultrasound tomorrow to see if gall stones are the cause. I wish we had UK hospitals as good as St Luke's in Vancouver. Snow at Whistler not that good anyway!

Eric

Looking at some other BB'S it would appear that OGI has won one of the contracts

http://www.metronews.ca/reuters_business.asp?id=46731

I'm sure we can expect to see red later today, no RNS from PET yet on this, very surprising

It was reported earlier that PET had been asked for their bank details by the ministry, if they had not won these tenders, why did the MoO need their bank details?
Tender No.3?, Block 6?, What?

Tokyo

Eric
Please give my regards to your wife and I hope she gets better very soon
Sharon

The metronews report as been described as a rehash of the reuters one.

I am on real tender hooks here! i so want Pet to give us all something today, something positive, but being realistic! Still i have a fund ready to go into Siber Energy tomorrow!

morning all,
eric , my best wishes to you and your wife.
could someone please tell me, if all these articles about IOG/IGO etc are`nt a rehash of the original reuters piece, why do they all call HAMRIN HIMRIN?, clinging to straws i know,but surely one reporter or co. representitive would know the correct name.
dexter

Any shorters about.

You could be dave if you can get in!

Be careful though!

Small short 34.50,morning sw very quite.

It'll go quieter as the week goes on...............

Prices may become exagerated as trading slows imo.

A liitle to be made if we are lucky and quick.

Morning PET, still no firm news from the Company then?

Good luck to all.

I'm out, price is gonna drop steady today, I'm very disappointed we didn't even see an RNS from PET today, as they have no doubt been in touch with the MoO over the weekend.

http://www.metronews.ca/reuters_business.asp?id=46731

The above link and report sealed it for me, all the info about on the net & in newspapers looked very positive for PET, the above company:OGI kept well below radar, which in the long run probably helped them.

Petrel still have Block 6, Sudan, Jordan and possibly some other tenders in Iraq next year, but for me the loss of these tenders was a real morale killer, I'm on the sidelines until January

Tokyo

Bankers details are a requirement on all tenders. The fact that Teeling and Horgan omitted to include them and the Iraqis had to come back and ask for them is another enigma surrounding this whole business.

honesty is the best policy tokyo, still gripped by the silence of PET and still believe there is cloak and dagger stuff going on, OPEC policy of saying one thing and doing the other.....indicated by the silence from PET. Trawling cash in for xmas buy (NBR DES) and holding with PET until the full picture is crystal.

watcher

morning tokyo,
i`m out too for the time being, it was a pig trying to sell, did you find the same?. like you, i still think there is some mileage in PET, but i definitely won`t keep hanging on and on.
all in, i still came out with just over 20% profit on my initial stake, could have been worse!
dexter

Tokyo is out this morning and a quick look at the trades show that the most his holding could have been was 28,000 shares as this has been the largest trade so far today. This guy was giving the impression that he was a high roller with a six figure sum invested if you could believe his posts on the `other` website. I give him credit for saying he has sold and at a loss, but honesty re size of holdings should also be practised more often, imho.