rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

shouldn't be ... at what level are you short? ...... expect support at 15525 .... if that fails, then could be a long drop on offer

..went short at 12565

when you say support - you mean if it drops to 15525 - it is likely to bounce ??

potentially, yes ..... i see that Dow is currently moving in a very narrow range indeed ..... only about 20 points either way

yes I agree - and again my timing appears to be at the wrong end of that range - I had expected a bigger and more sustained drop this afternoon - indeed it did drop to 12 530 at one stage - but I stayed in rateher than take the profit - ho hum.

Coming back to the currency debate : the likes of the UK, Denmark and Sweden, could create a rival northern currency (you could call it the "kround" ),... as the Norwegians are not in the EC...I don't know if you could include them !

How about calling it the Viking

Istill like a punt!

WASHINGTON (AP) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said the global credit crisis, despite some recent improvement, remains a significant threat to economic growth.

Despite 'unprecedented intervention' by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, 'financial markets remain under considerable strain, now compounded' by a slowing economy, low levels of capital at financial companies and widespread efforts to unload debt, the fund said.

The U.S. mortgage and credit crises could cause almost $1 trillion in financial losses, the IMF said in an update to its Global Financial Stability Report, with $565 billion of those losses stemming from the residential mortgage market and related securities, and the rest from the commercial real estate, consumer credit and corporate debt markets.

That estimate is toward the higher end of estimates by many Wall Street economists, who have pegged the costs of the residential mortgage meltdown at $400 billion to $600 billion.

The IMF's figure includes $200 billion in losses that banks have already announced, plus an additional $80 billion the banks have yet to write down, IMF officials said during a briefing.

The rest is held by other financial institutions, such as hedge funds and pension funds, the officials said.

'The deterioration in credit has moved up and across the credit spectrum to prime residential and commercial mortgage markets, and to corporate credit markets,' said Jaime Caruana, director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets department.

Credit markets have stabilized since last month, IMF officials said, when Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. investment bank, was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. at a fire-sale price.

But now, a weakening U.S. economy is placing 'additional pressure on banks' balance sheets, which may limit their capacity to lend,' Caruana said.

Caruana urged banks to seek additional capital so they can continue to lend and 'avoid a credit contraction in the broader economy.'

Caruana said investments earlier this year by government-run investment funds in large U.S. and European banks 'have helped, but more may be needed to restore their lending capacity.'

Government funds, also known as sovereign wealth funds, from China, Singapore and the Middle East invested more than $40 billion in Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., and Swiss bank UBS late last year and early this year.

The IMF is developing a voluntary code of best practices for the funds, which have sparked some concerns in the United States and Europe because they are government-run. Critics fear they could invest for noncommercial reasons, such as to obtain sensitive technologies.

While some sovereign fund managers, such as China's, have criticized the IMF's efforts, Caruana said the code could 'help ... to mitigate some of the concerns' about sovereign funds.

'We think that it is very important to keep the financial system open and competitive,' Caruana said.

Government regulation and supervision of the financial sector, along with private sector risk management, 'all lagged behind the rapid innovation' of banks and securities firms, which resulted in 'excessive risk-taking, weak underwriting ... and asset price inflation,' the IMF said in its report.

Among other steps, the IMF recommended streamlining regulation of the financial sector to avoid subjecting banks and other financial firms to multiple supervisors.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has proposed a regulatory overhaul along those lines that would eliminate some agencies and consolidate others. Most of Paulson's blueprint would require congressional approval, however, and is unlikely to be enacted before President Bush leaves office.

Separately, the IMF's executive board on Monday approved a broad financial overhaul plan that could lead to the sale of more than 400 tons of its substantial gold supplies.

The sale, which could raise $11 billion, is intended to close a budget gap at the IMF. The plan requires congressional approval.

The IMF issued the update in advance of the spring meetings of finance ministers and central bank governors from its 185 member nations, which takes place this weekend in Washington. The IMF conducts economic analyses and provides loans and technical assistance to developing countries.

Volatility has evaporated, must be all those hedge funds disappearing that previously flushed the market with borrowed liquidity!

What a frustrating day, started off scalping and did OK, but then I Kindly gave all my gains back to the market, looking at the days grapth it should have been a very good scaping day. Even my longer term short went against me today.

Interesting to read earlier post about the article re Spain, Italy and Ireland rumoured to unhappy with the Euro. I read over the weekend that Spain needs a 2 point cut in interest rates now. There property prices are believed to be 20% lower in last 12 month's and falling fast, against official government figures of 7%.

The problem they have is that Interest rates are mainly influenced by Germany and France still, staying out of Euro is one dicision the UK got right.

This must be the least volatile day of the year, at least it makes it more difficult to lose a fortune

Will the Euro stand the test of time ?, history says it will not !, it could collapse like a pack of cards if a country like Greece or Portugal decide through a referendum that they want to pull out....you would see other countries leaving as well...but a small northern european currency with only 3 to 5 entries might stand the test of time...with the benefit of having gained a lot of experience through the Euro.....there might be second time round a lot less pitfalls to look out for !

This from Reuters:
UK Feb factory output grows faster than expected
09 Apr 2008 - 09:30

LONDON, Apr 9 (Reuters) - British factory output grew faster than expected in February and at its strongest annual rate in more than a year, official data showed on Wednesday.

The Office for National Statistics said manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent on the month in February, above forecasts for a 0.1 percent gain. On the year, factory output rose 1.9 percent -- the strongest annual rate since December 2006.

Industrial output rose 0.3 percent on the month and 1.3 percent on the year in February, also beating analyst forecasts and the strongest annual rise since November 2006.

The figures are unlikely to alter expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent on Thursday, but suggest British industry is holding up in the wake of the global credit crunch.

However, economists expect the economy to cool this year as the credit squeeze spreads out from the hard-hit financial sector and as companies struggle with rising raw materials costs.

The ONS said the rise in factory output in February was driven by gains in the food, drink and tobacco, chemicals and metals sectors.

I think some other data due out at 10:30 this morning - March BRC shop price index? (not sure what BRC stands for but the data will be important I'm sure)

I think some other data due out at 10:30 this morning - March BRC shop price index

British Retail Consortium, Toya.

Thanks for the heads up Toya - I wondered what had changed the sentiment with the FTSE starting to gain ground

UK SHOP PRICE INDEX MARCH 2008 - FOOD PRICE INFLATION SLOWS
April 9, 2008

Year-on-Year: The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI) reports annual shop price inflation of 1.1% in March, marking a twelfth consecutive month of rising annual prices. During the last six months the retail market has experienced relatively steady inflation ranging from 1.0%-1.3% with March proving no exception.

Month-on-Month: On a month on month basis overall shop prices rose 0.2% in March, a relatively small reduction in comparison with February when prices increased 0.4% month-on-month. There was no reported growth in the price of food products from the previous month, the first time since August last year; however non-food prices increased 0.3% in March, slightly less than February (0.4%).

BoE rate announcement tomorrow, HBOS downgraded today, could well be a messey day for the banks...