Just bought this at 64.75 pence,feel free to comment..

Morning nice to see blue numbers at ave.

From Avis Europe Website

Shareholder Composition

Shareholder Composition for Avis Europe as at February 2005.

Majority Shareholder 59.7

Institutional Holding 33.2

Private Individuals 3.5

Directorial Holding 0.2

Other 3.4

Total 100.0 %

Since Feb 2005 Fidelity have added 1.3% , Templeton 0.7% and Deutche Bank probably around 1% These owners now account for 19% out of 36% of the business
held by Institutions
Also if the Institutions have been of the same mind since Jan2005 then these holidings additions have come at the expense of holdings by "private individuals" and "other" suggesting that these now total not more than 5% which will include employee share schemes

Assuming the Institutions are in "buying" not "selling" mode the "free market"
is now not more than 4 to 4.5% or 25M to 30M shares in total
This represents a chronic stock shortage and may explain why a 0.25p sp price increase can be caused by a buy order for 20000 worth of shares

i agree, there is a seller around that may be overhanging the stock a little. i would love to have a go and try and lift him.

Prop
If you feel brave

and trust your fingers to press the right button...........

Place a buy order for 500000 shares just to see what the sp would be .........
I betcha it would be over 70p
Then hit the cancel button immediately.......

no need to committ, just ask your broker for a price and size! (or if prefer ask him for a price in a million).

my broker is away this week and if i ask GNI or IG they will be grossly uncompetitive. who do you use and how well do you know your broker?

will see about this tomorrow

Prop
Not well enough to get a quote just for interest sake......

understood. leave it with me.

We know that
59.6% of AVE shares are owned by D`Ieteren
And
Institutions holdings were33% in Feb 2005
And
A further 3.6% of shares are not in play due to share schemes and options for employees and Directors
Then
The free market in AVE shares was not more than 3.8% in Feb 2005

Lets assume say 2% of this 3.8% was traded since Feb2005 which is probably an overestimate
Then since
Transactions from Feb2005 to 13 June 2005 accounted for 13.2%
This suggests that around 11% of the volume during this period was accounted for by Institutions trading with each other probably coupled with massive amounts of double counting as MMs bought from one Institution and sold to another Institution
None of the big sells or buys seemed to have any effect on the sp for the small trades which immediately followed these big deals
During this period the sp rose from 60.25p on 1 March 2005 to 73p and fell back to
63.75p on 13 June 2005
The key drivers over the period was anticipation of good news on 25 May and subsequent disappointment when the outlook was bearish

This suggests that in the absence of hard news the future sp for AVE is likely to hover around the present level of 62p to 64p
Since
Institutions that want more stock have to avoid the free market since there isnt enough volume to meet demandalthough they will probably have standing orders
with MMs for whatever stock they can buy at an agreed mark up

Institutions that want to dump stock must avoid the free market since the impact on the sp would be catastrophic as happened in Dec 04 They need to negotiate a sale with other Institutions
3 The only consistent day to day buyers in the free market are the MMs with competition on a random basis from small shareholders
4 The only consistent day to day sellers in the free market are small shareholders
replaced by MMs when they see a shortage of sellers starting to impact the price
The good news is that at least 3 Institutions two US and one German believe AVE is a good investment worth increasing their holdings despite the bearish outlook

65 bid

Prop
Interesting
Either a MM is dealing on own acct and has accumulated enough stock for a quick profit
Or
Broker has phoned around and found a Fund wanting to take some profit
since most big buys since 4 Jan were below 64p
Also
it suggests
The 3 named Funds are unwilling to pay top dollar at the moment

seller defiantely around. bases are loaded at 64, 64.25, 64.5 and 65.

If big seller is indeed a fund reducing its holding at a profit or break even
...........sp ought to bottom out at 61/62p
.....and rise thereafter

one hopes but we need to find a clearing level for the stock. if that level is 61/2 then great. it may however be lower. this is a classic overhang order and you are right, once clear these should bounce strongly.

40M shares changed hands in Feb/March between 60p - 63.75p The large parcels over 200000 had minimal impact on the sp for the deals immediately succeeding them This must have been the buying price range for any "new" institutions who joined the party perhaps with an eye to getting out around now
If so

.....Only a fund desperate to get out and move on will go into a loss situation by forcing the sp significantly below current level
Perhaps
....... this overhang could drag on a bit if the big 3 decide not to top up their holdings
Assuming no new Fund emerges as a buyer
..... The telltale will be more of the same
ie parcels over 200000 changing hands with negligible impact on the sp signifying the processing of transfers between MMs and Funds or between Funds

it is too thin today to guess what is going on but the seller of 50/- at 64 has been there all day and there has been small buying on any dip.

very low volume though, hard to jusdge what is really happening.

well at least we now know. sold my entire holding at 55...no interest playing a rights game over the next few years even if 100% underwritten.

Regulatory Announcement

Go to market news section

Company Avis Europe PLC
TIDM AVE
Headline Rights Issue
Released 07:01 16-Jun-05
Number 6394N



RNS Number:6394N
Avis Europe PLC
16 June 2005



16 June 2005

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, THE
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA OR JAPAN

Avis Europe plc

Proposed 4 for 7 Rights Issue of 334,736,017 New Shares at 35 pence per share to
Qualifying Shareholders
and announcement of margin recovery strategy

Avis Europe plc today announces that it proposes to raise approximately 110.5
million, net of expenses, by the issue of approximately 334.7 million New Shares
at a price of 35 pence per New Share by way of a rights issue to Qualifying
Shareholders. This Rights Issue will provide the Group with the capital to move
forward with the next phase of its recovery strategy from a stronger base.

Highlights of the recovery strategy

Two primary objectives - targeted profitable growth and ongoing cost
reduction
Successful implementation targeted to deliver an improvement in
operating margins of 3-5 percentage points over 3-4 years
Phased strategy with low execution risk - first phase well underway
Builds on the Group's core strengths including the Avis and Budget
brands and networks
Senior management team significantly strengthened

Details of the Rights Issue

Net proceeds of approximately 110.5 million
4 New Shares for every 7 Shares at 35 pence per Share
Represents a 34% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of 53 pence
Proposed issue of 334.7 million New Shares represents approximately 36.4
per cent of enlarged issued share capital
Major shareholder, D'Ieteren, irrevocably committed to taking up
approximately 70 million of New Shares representing its full entitlement
under the Rights Issue
Balance of New Shares fully underwritten by Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein
Requires approval of ordinary resolutions by shareholders at EGM to be
held on 4 July 2005
Prospectus and Provisional Allotment Letters expected to be posted on 4
July 2005

Rationale for the Rights Issue

Enables delivery of the next phase of the recovery strategy
Strengthens capital base

Commenting, Chief Executive Murray Hennessy said:

"This Rights Issue will enable us to move forward with our recovery strategy. It
will fund targeted, profitable growth and strengthen our capital base. Having
taken a number of important decisions over the past year, the recovery strategy
is now well underway and is being implemented by a strengthened management team.
We believe that successful implementation of our margin recovery strategy should
deliver an improvement in operating margins of between three and five percentage
points over the next three to four years."

Enquiries:

Avis Europe plc Tel: 01344 426644
Murray Hennessy, Chief Executive
Martyn Smith, Group Finance Director

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Tel: 020 7623 8000
Jonathan Roe
Julian Smith

Lazard Tel: 020 7187 2000
Marcus Agius
Matthew Jarman

Brunswick Tel: 020 7404 5959
Susan Gilchrist
Craig Breheny

Bye Prop
You leave me a bit puzzled why you didn`t hold on until July when you can get out after selling both ordinary and nil paid shares............

Bit of a shock this as i was out all day yesterday,stop losses came good just,but this is unbelievable for avis.

Can somebody confirm that I have understood this correctly

For every 7 shares currently owned you get the "right" to buy 4 shares at 35p each
And

These rights can be traded during the period 5 July to 25 July after which the option lapses
and you get nothing if you don`t either sell the "right" or pay 35p per share for each "right"
Therefore
From today until 4 July
One "right" is notionally worth (sp-35)p
Four "rights" are notionally worth 4x(sp-35)p
Since Four rights are acquired for every 7 existing ordinary shares

And
7 shares are worth 7x(sp)
Then the "adjusted" or true value of a current share from today until 4 July when the nil paid shares start trading is

4x(sp-35)p + 7x(sp)
......................
7

where sp = the current sell price

If this interpretation is correct the Adj Value of an AVE share over the next few weeks wolud be as shown below
sp adj sp
0.60 0.74
0.60 0.74
0.60 0.73
0.59 0.73
0.59 0.73
0.59 0.72
0.59 0.72
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.71
0.58 0.70
0.57 0.70
0.57 0.69
0.57 0.69
0.57 0.69
0.56 0.68
0.56 0.68
0.56 0.67
0.56 0.67
0.55 0.67
0.55 0.66
0.55 0.66
0.55 0.66

simple calcualtion for rights:

4:7 shares:

shares last night closed at 63p
rights are at 35p

((4x35p)+(7x63p))/11 = 52.81p

that is the implied price ex-rights. The fact is that since they are not ex yet you work out the price the day befor the 5 july to see what they will be trading at. So in theory they have responded very well to this because i thought with such a deep issue they may have opened nearer 45p today.

The fact is that there has been support today but i am out because i have lost faith in management. yes they may turn it around and the market has recieved this well BUT a further deteriation of trading will see these close to rights price.

I wish you all well and may pop in from time to time.

good luck!