The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

transense technologies (trt) on a roll with little or no news.

Hi, folk. Away until Sunday so will update the situations when I get back. Hope all doing well and sparing a tear or two for ASOS - still being shorted by EK; so it could go lower or it may be that it will hold at the 54p support level. My view is buy now for medium term (a year) or hold the hosses to see what happens to the shorting game.

Eric

ASOS 2nd CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Another good week overall with the portfolio up 2.9% on the week and 15.9% overall against 1.1% and 2.6% for the small-cap index (anyone got the exact small-cap at start date please?). The number at the end of most columns is the post reference for johngtudor's helpful chart analysis.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 15.375 70248 113.8 6.0__ BBSSUUW(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 130___ 10316 106.3 64.0_ O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 690.5_ 35077 75.0_ 14.4_ CDMM(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 209.5_ 16048 60.5_ 23.6_ JJ(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 119___ 6843_ 36.8_ 23.3_ K(151)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 167.5_ 6533_ 30.6_ 3.7__ B(137)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.875 6521_ 30.6_ 5.7__ T(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 289___ 6257_ 25.2_ 6.4__ C(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 165___ 6064_ 21.3_ 15.8_ A(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 230___ 6003_ 20.1_ -1.5_ G(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.75_ 23925 19.6_ -12.1 BEMS(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 388___ 5917_ 18.5_ 6.2__ P(151)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.33__ 11781 17.9_ -8.3_ WY(137)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.75_ 5841_ 16.8_ 1.7__ I(137)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 78.5__ 11673 16.7_ 1.3__ TT(137)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 812.5_ 5826_ 16.5_ 22.9_ J
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 937.5_ 5766_ 15.6_ 3.9__ P(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 535.0_ 5725_ 14.7_ 0.0__ P(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 71.0__ 11431 14.5_ 4.4__ OO(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 241.5_ 11351 13.6_ 6.9__ GH(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 94.5__ 5576_ 11.4_ -2.3_ K(137)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.975_ 5571_ 11.4_ 0.5__ Y(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 132___ 10976 9.8__ 7.8__ EE(151)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.625_ 4823_ 5.9__ 9.8__ W
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 270___ 10530 5.4__ 4.9__ DE(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 169.5_ 5221_ 4.5__ 1.2__ G(173)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 687.5_ 10313 3.0__ 0.2__ DP(151)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.5__ 5100_ 2.0__ -1.6_ O(151)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 51.0__ 5001_ 0.0__ 2.0__ I(173)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 258___ 4992_ -0.1_ -1.7_ G(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 253.5_ 4956_ -0.9_ 0.0__ M(173)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 22.25_ 24698 -1.1_ -4.3_ LLLLR(173)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.5__ 4888_ -2.1_ 2.2__ V(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 49____ 19404 -3.0_ -1.0_ AIKK(173)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.5___ 8250_ -4.0_ -1.6_ HH
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 257.5_ 4609_ -4.1_ -2.8_ C
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 51____ 4743_ -5.1_ 18.6_ R(177)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 8.5___ 21038 -6.5_ -5.6_ JSVV(137)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 132___ 4640_ -7.2_ -1.9_ C(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 114.5_ 18286 -8.6_ -0.9_ AIRR(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 7.75__ 4456_ -10.8 -6.1_ Y(173)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14____ 8820_ -11.8 5.7__ UU(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 10____ 4045_ -14.0 -11.1 D
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 53.5__ 4296_ -14.1 2.4__ H(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 6.375_ 4284_ -14.3 -12.7 V(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 196.5_ 4254_ -14.9 2.6__ A(177)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 16.125 8498_ -15.7 -15.1 TW
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 59____ 15033 -24.8 0.9__ ZZZZ(177)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 7.375_ 3664_ -26.7 -6.8_ Y(177)

total___________________ 510105.5 15.9_ 2.9
small-cap 2891.87___ 2936.9______ 2.6__ 1.1

No doubt about the share of the week: HCEG. Jumped quickly on board of the bird flu bandwagon, which added to the topicality of MRSA, means that it is flying (unlike the flu-stricken bird!) and no knowing where it will stop did you go through jgt's chart analyses - if so, you may have been into HCEG!

Three other significant movers in the week: TRT is another share which stood out in jgt's analysis: he pointed out that if it broke through the resistance level it should go to 120p. Jules has bagged two of them with AEN and BGT. Worth looking at the Bright Things thread for an explanation. Perhaps Jules can explain the movement in Asian Energy.

SEO has retained its lead over HCEG, although only just. Positive progress reported by ASDA with implementation of R/F tray lidding technology. May be nearing the last chance to get into the share at these levels!

NLR ios gathering momentum again - again you might well have been in if you had followed jgt's analysis.

bos beginning to stretch his lead over seb. moneyplus's shares have done well for her while in hospital (moneyplus that is, for a knee op., not the shares!). optimistic is living up to his name as the only investor in HCEG (i.e. on this thread; there are a few hundred thousand others). Jules is biggest mover with advances in BGT and AEN. Yours truly is slipping down the pecking order having not timed the GMC switch that well (but watch out you folk ahead!).

B 87.1_ D 18.7_ A -1.3
S 60.2_ P 12.8_ Y -2.2
M 42.4_ E 11.1_ R -5.8
O 34.2_ K 10.6_ V -7.4
J 32.7_ G 9.5__ H -8.9
W 32.1_ T 8.4__ Z -24.8
U 28.0_ I 1.3__
C 21.4_ L -1.2_

Please draw attention to significant news for any of your holdings, particularly any that implies a BUY opportunity.

Eric

blimey charlie. still top of the league!!!!

Thanks again Eric for your hard work.

MOB results out 16th March, can see these really motoring from now on.

capa

Nice to be a mover.... only MDW letting me down:-(

Quite happy with the "tortoise" portfolio. Quality wins in the long term - pity this is just 6 months! Only BPG (just) in the lower half of all selections. Good results from CRDA last week - BAG has year end 31st Jan, so they should have some news soon and unlikely to disappoint, should make around 15M pretax.In the meantime, decent yield and 30M cash in the bank on market cap 180M., so easy to sleep at night - if only Coca Cola fancied buying growth in Scotland......

partridge

Really good to have you as a benchmark! 12% per month is not a bad performance. bos is certainly a bit of a hare; suspect he's ready for a long nap; the trouble is that SEO is doing all the work for him! Read tortoise and hare to 3-y-o grandson recently; important for him to learn the lesson - I think he identified with the tortoise!

Eric

eric , you are not the first person to liken me to a rabbit....:) anyway i beg to differ that seo are doing all the work. i am not the only one with seo. my two other picks are also doing very well. also , this is a sprint not a slow walk. watch out for agl in the spring.

bos: Pleased to get my own back after being likened to an insufferable egotist! Yeah! your other picks may not be stars but they are sound enough! If you're caught, it seems to me the possibles are: (1) seb who only differs in having MDW against AGL (may be a tight call!); (2)moneyplus with a double holding in NLR and also in DGM;(3) jules with double BGT which could take off around June; (4) optimistic, although HCEG is only a single bet; (5) not to mention yours truly who could come with an amazing sprint finish with NML, CFP and GMC on top of SEO. Not all over yet, you cocky b***ard!

Eric

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

The portfolio continues to make steady progress: up 1.9% on the week and 18.1% overall. 20 of 49 shares are up over 10% overall which I would say was a good ratio, and 15 out of 21 players are in credit; 10 over 10% up out of 21. Well done all! The fact that no more switching is allowed might help those of us who are too active on the trading button!

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 17.0__ 77673 136.4 10.6 BBSSUUW(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 755.5_ 38379 91.5_ 9.4_ CDMM(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 120.5_ 9562_ 91.3_ -7.3 O(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 207.5_ 15895 59.0_ -1.0 JJ(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 123.5_ 7101_ 42.0_ 3.8_ K(151)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.39__ 13923 39.3_ 18.2 WY(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 313.5_ 6787_ 35.9_ 8.5_ C(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 177.0_ 6505_ 30.1_ 7.3_ A(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.750 6463_ 29.4_ -0.9 T(151)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 900.0_ 6453_ 29.0_ 10.8 J
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 161.5_ 6299_ 25.9_ -3.6 B(137)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 15.00_ 5940_ 18.8_ 1.7_ I(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 382.25 5829_ 16.8_ -1.5 P(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 942.5_ 5796_ 16.2_ 0.5_ P(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 222.5_ 5807_ 16.2_ -3.3 G(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 540.0_ 5778_ 15.8_ 0.9_ P(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 20.75_ 22825 14.1_ -4.6 BEMS(137)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 242.0_ 11374 13.9_ 0.2_ GH(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 70.5__ 11351 13.7_ -0.7 OO(151)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 133.5_ 11101 11.0_ 1.1_ EE(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 93.0__ 5487_ 9.7__ -1.6 K(137)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 72.0__ 10706 7.1__ -8.3 TT(137)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 23.75_ 26363 5.6__ 6.7_ LLLLR(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 169.5_ 5221_ 4.5__ 0.0_ G(173)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 267.5_ 10433 4.4__ -0.9 DE(173)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 696.5_ 10448 4.3__ 1.3_ DP(151)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.500_ 4716_ 3.6__ -2.2 W
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 55.0__ 5115_ 2.3__ 7.8_ R(177)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 260.5_ 5093_ 1.9__ 2.8_ M(173)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 9.125_ 22584 0.4__ 7.4_ JSVV(137)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.0__ 4935_ -1.3_ -3.2 O(151)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.375 4834_ -3.2_ -1.1 V(173)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 49.0__ 4804_ -3.9_ -3.9 I(173)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 255.5_ 4573_ -4.8_ -0.8 C
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 243.5_ 4712_ -5.7_ -5.6 G(151)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.825_ 4714_ -5.7_ -15.4 Y(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 47.0__ 18612 -6.9_ -4.1 AIKK(173)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14.5__ 9135_ -8.7_ 3.6_ UU(173)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.1___ 7838_ -8.8_ -5.0 HH
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 7.88__ 4528_ -9.4_ 1.6_ Y(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 111.5_ 17807 -11.0 -2.6 AIRR(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 126.0_ 4429_ -11.4 -4.5 C(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 10.0__ 4045_ -14.0 0.0_ D
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 51.25_ 4115_ -17.7 -4.2 H(177)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 187.5_ 4059_ -18.8 -4.6 A(177)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 14.5__ 7642_ -24.2 -10.1 TW
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 5.625_ 3780_ -24.4 -11.8 V(173)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 57.5__ 14651 -26.8 -2.5 ZZZZ(177)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.625_ 3531_ -29.3 -3.6 Y(177)

totals__________________ 519749.2 18.1_ 1.9
small-cap__ 2891.87_ 2979.7______ 3.0__ 0.4

Only three shares up over 10% in the week, led by CFP with AEN and SEO; all repeat achievers! CFP is worth looking at, particular overgrowth's posts on the bb, as it would take relatively little in the April trading statment for the sp to at least double. SEO is testing the resistance level of 17p: the potential ASDA contract statement, a safe bet in my book, is due early April. Anything on AEN, Jules? Next best mover is NLR, which is not unusual; even Evil stated that he wasn't prepared to try to short it as it would be like standing in front of a runaway train!

Talking of Evil, he is still encouraging the shorting of ASC, but expect a revival on the April trading news. jgt and I, who switched to GMC, got our timing wrong, but I expect a surge before the end of the contest; I realise that, as a gambling share, the punters are very fickle, but they will be back! Strange to see shares like PDX, DES and BNH down amongst the dead men, but that's probably primarily a question of timing.

B 78.3_ D 20.4_ Y -1.3
S 71.9_ P 10.1_ A -1.7
M 49.9_ E 10.1_ R -3.5
W 40.1_ K 9.5__ V -6.7
U 38.5_ G 7.1__ H -11.9
J 36.8_ L 5.5__ Z -26.7
O 29.2_ T 1.5
C 26.9_ I -0.8

bos (figure overstated last week) still leading seb be a head. That sleek filly, moneyplus, keeps up a game gallop without the benefit of SEO but is on board that NLR express!. Yours truly and Markus have recovered the next places with optomistic suffering a natural reaction from the heady rise of HCEG last week. Jules is second of the non-SEO players with BGT and AEN both doing well.

I am enjoying doing this fun competition and feel that I have been learning a lot. If we keep this going it should be worth a piece in Shares; mind I have had to remonstrate with them this week for some poor reporting, in my view, re ASC; my letter to them, which asks for John Marshall's viewpoint, is posted on the ASC bb.

Happy trading! Eric

do i need to say it? yeah!!!! top of the league. still. anybody in blackpool on sunday (winter gardens?).

Hi, bos, not surprised to see you here! Blackpool is a bit far - how about Eastbourne? Now, I know that SEO will be up, up and away-ay-ay.... , but I have this sneaking feeling that you may be in for a surprise; no sneak previews, though! Nor have I given up myself - clue! clue! Eric

hi guys
bosley, wait until mdw gets some big orders confirmed and u will see a TGV (FRENCH FAST TRAIN) overtaking you at a high speed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
regards all

seb

Hi All, Glad to see I'm still hanging in there-thought PAY was about to shoot up but it was only a flicker! DGM will recover on results day I hope-some profit taking going on there and YOO is still in the starting blocks but I'm confident--good old NLR what can I say about that one it's a star! Eric thanks for the sleek filly comment it's made my day--even if it was the Rioja talking! At the moment I feel more like a broken down nag but maybe a few months down the line I'll be jumping around!
With ref to your daughters house purchase Eric---do you take your profits and pay the Cap gains tax?? Thanks to NLR I could be in that happy position this year but am reluctant to hand over a chunk of my gains to Blair & co. so far I'm sitting wondering whether to wait out 2 years to only have to pay 10% CGT
but could lose the lot!! decisions ! decisions! have a good weekend all.

Good to hear from you, moneyplus. Glad you are resisiting the impulse to jump around - all in due time. The operation is debilitating enough in itself; it is 8 days since Mary's gallstone operation and she is taking things sensibly a step at a time; hubs covering himself with glory!

Re CGT, I have tax losses to bring forward from a business venture although at the rpesent rate I will use those up in the next year or two. If not available, better to wait the 2 years unless you are doubtful about the investment. Certainly worth holding shares like ASC, NLR and SEO. Probably a good discipline to stop you selling too many. A disadvantage of CFDs is that you are not buying a stake in the company so the 2 year protection won't apply (I assume). Its probably even worth borrowing the money rather than forking out 30% of profits if you want to use the funds. Well done, though, on the Challenge performance - impressive and could get better!

Eric

i feel a delia moment coming on.........
where are you???????? com'on. lets be 'aving you!!!!!!!

Hi all...
another good week for many.Well done
EW... here's a bit on AEN taken from the cazenove broker note

AEN has been one of the commodity boom success stories. At the centre of its performance lies the potentially world class Phulbari coal asset.
The deposit apppears to have a combination of three factors thatmakeitunique. First,a c. 40m seamwhich should result in bottomquartilecash costs.Second, high quality bituminous coal marketable to both the thermaland metallurgicalmarkets.Finally the deposit is less than 50km away fromIndia, with itsw high growth steel and power generation industries. It is obviously capable in assisting with the development of Bangladesh's power capacity.
The company's share price performance since listing on AIM in April 2004 has been very strong. Yet according to our estimates, the stock is still trading at a significant discount to our base case NPV.
Using conservative coal price estimates some 40% below spot prices, we arrive at a pre- diluted NPV of 13.81.Making some basic assumptions on equity issuance, we arrive at a post diluted NPV of 11.30, c.71% above the current share price...(At the time was 6.53)We calculate that by the time the mine comes on stream in H2 2007, the pre diluted NPV should have nearly doubled to 26.60 per share or 21.80 post dilution. All this will not be lost on predatory companies either in the steel or mining sector which are both seeing rapid asset price inflation.
Management's approach to the development of this mine has been rigorous. The company is using top flight consultants at all levels of the project including independent assessment of the coal quality. With coal prices also seemingly set firm, we intiate cover with an outperform (released 3 march 2005)

Good job Eric as ever.

Up 27% and still lying eighth !!!! If it wasn't for that pesky SEO

MOB results out this week, they should be great.

WNN results out later in the month, which should illustrate how seriously undervalued this company is.

capa

Thanks for the hard work Eric. Anyone got a spare min check out ITR have posted on the thread.