< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

pth possibly but as skin says timing is everything.

Afren retreats despite hopes for Kurdistan oil



Rachel Cooper, 19:38, Friday 4 November 2011

Although analysts were talking up the potential for oil explorers in Kurdistan, Afren succumbed to the market sell-off.

Back in July, the FTSE 250 oil explorer, said it had agreed to buy stakes in two Kurdistan operations for $588m (368m), extending its reach beyond Africa into the Middle East.

Years of wrangling between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government had dented oil explorers confidence in the area. But sentiment lifted in May when producers in Kurdistan began to receive payments for oil exports, which restarted in February.

Analysts at Citigroup (NYSE: C - news) were exploring whether Kurdistan could be a land of opportunity, pointing out that according to the US Geological Society, the area could hold more than 50bn barrels of oil and gas, which is comparable to the current reserves of Libya.

Despite significant political uncertainties, we expect exploration and appraisal drilling to accelerate into 2012, said the broker. Afren plans up to three wells over the next 12 months in Kurdistan, added analysts, who see significant potential from the drilling programme.

Nonetheless, Afren retreated 5.15 to 81.9p and its slide was reflected by the wider market, which endured another erratic days trading.

what a great buy in price today! gla

By Sarah Young

LONDON (Reuters) - Afren's acquisition of a stake in a Nigerian oil field known as OML 26, announced last year, is on track to complete by the end of 2011, the Africa-focused oil firm's chief executive said.

"We've received ministerial consent, we've received our waiver of pre-emption rights and we're in the final stages of closing this," Chief Executive Osman Shahenshah told Reuters in an interview on Friday.

Shares in Afren traded down 6 percent to 81.75 pence at 1150 GMT, paring earlier losses of as much as 14 percent.

Analysts attributed the losses to a media report which suggested that Afren's stake in the oil block had been allocated to other parties.

"We're fully on track to close by the end of the year. Nothing's changed," Shahenshah said.

Afren is buying the stake through First Hydrocarbon Nigeria, an indigenous Nigerian company it set up to buy fields sold off by majors, and said in October 2010 it would spend $187.5 million buying the OML 26 stake from Shell, Total and Eni.

Shahenshah also said that he was confident Afren would meet its target of exiting the year with total group production of around 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) after ramping up production from its Ebok field, also in Nigeria.

"Ebok's going well. Earlier in the year we had some delays but it's all going very well now," he said.

Afren said in July it expected full-year production to average between 25,000 and 30,000 boepd, down from the 40,000 boepd it forecast in May.

Another buttock clenching drop today, for no apparent reason!
Bought a few in anticipation of a bounce.

Ditto.....just can't believe this drop....

tempting though buying more may be, i shall resist on the basis that sp has been falling steadily and there usually turns out to be a good reason

I was wondering whether the italian government have a few and might be forced into selling.

Cynic, bad news may already be in the price, therefore.
But will trade my holding, as not convinced by my own logic!

was there not a report over the w/e about the detiorating political situation in the north of nigeria ? dont know if thats where their assets are, but maybe a reason

The SP at the minute is less than a p/e of 5 for projected 2012 earnings,which coupled with the following article augers well for AFR and other Kurdistan oilers.


The Iraqi government has confirmed last week that the agreement reached with the Kurdistan Regional Government is to adopt the draft 2007 to the draft law of oil and gas, a tentative agreement will be put through the next few weeks for a vote in the Council of Ministers before it is sent to parliament for approval."

Graph is looking a bit worrying, imo. Not sure where good support starts.

If it goes to 60p will be in hopefully before Xmas.

Comment from RBS:
"The Financial Times reports ExxonMobil has signed contracts for 6 exploration blocks in Kurdistan, citing sources at the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
To date, Big Oil has concentrated on southern Iraq given the scale of resources on offer there (Exxon is a partner in the West Qurna 1 project) and Baghdads view that all contracts signed in Kurdistan are illegal. However, Kurdistan itself still offers a significant resource and in our view the temptation has become too great for Exxon to resist effectively Exxon is calling Baghdads bluff presumably believing that it wont lose its West Qurna project interest with a move into Kurdistan.
The Kurdistan oil play has been characterised by a number of companies (i.e. Heritage, DNO) getting in very early, which has been followed by a number of consolidation phases (i.e. Afren) to the point where most, if not all of the prospective blocks have been licenced. Once the wrangles between Baghdad and the KRG are resolved to the point that the oil law is harmonised, there was always the potential for much larger companies to come in and hoover up a lot of the smaller players.
Exxons move could accelerate that process in our view, and if there is no major fall out as a result we see it as a positive for all of the shares in our coverage universe (Afren, Heritage and Petroceltic) that have exposure there. Afren would be the obvious one to look at, given the shares have been hit lately to the point where we believe the Kurdistan assets could be worth more than the current share price alone. However, if the blocks are gas prone, this could be a major fillip for Heritage, which has been in the doldrums for most of this year as the market wonders how the significant gas resources in the Miran West field will be monetised. Last, but not least, we see nothing in Petroceltics share price for drilling on the Shakrok and Dinarta licences in 2013, where a 500mmbbls prospect could be worth up to 10p/share on an unrisked basis."

Dived in with some more earlier this morning.......just in the nick of time....has to go back above 100p this one...

Glad i bought more this week ,good news ,can't see this lower than 70's.

Also added today

If the Eurozone drags the market down, AFR is not immune. Not sure there is any hurry yet to get in.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2011/nov/11/ftse-up-eurozone-hopes

Elsewhere reports that ExxonMobil had signed contracts for six licences in Kurdistan helped lift some UK listed companies operating in the area, partly due to their prospects as takeover targets. Afren added 10.95p to 85.8p, Heritage was 1.8p higher at 202p while Gulf Keystone Petroleum climbed 35.5p to 177.25p on talk a bid could be imminent. Phil Corbett at RBS said:

Afren would be the obvious one to look at, given the shares have been hit lately to the point where we believe the Kurdistan assets could be worth more than the current share price alone

Chevron to join slick of oil supermajors in Kurdistan
American company set to enter the battle for a share of northern Iraq's massive reserves

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chevron-to-join-slick-of-oil-supermajors-in-kurdistan-6261405.html

MARK LEFTLY SUNDAY 13 NOVEMBER 2011

Chevron is expected to be the next oil supermajor to break into Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq.

On Friday, ahead of today's major oil conference in the Kurdistan capital of Erbil, it emerged that ExxonMobil is the first supermajor to have signed exploration contracts in the region.

Kurdistan regional government adviser Michael Howard claimed there had been talks with several of the world's biggest oil companies. According to sources, Chevron has "run the slide rule" over the Shaikan onshore block, which is majority owned by London-listed group Gulf Keystone Petroleum.

However, it is believed that the Shaikan field, which is estimated to hold an extraordinary 10.5 billion barrels of oil, is actually the subject of one of the six licences that Exxon has taken.

The details of the six licences did not emerge on Friday. But, sources suggest that Dr Ashti Hawrami, Kurdistan's Minister for Natural Resources, plans to open today's conference by revealing the specifics of the deal.

It seems likely that Exxon has taken a 20 per cent stake in Shaikan. The Kurdistan government had an option of taking this stake once the field was proven to be commercially viable, and it is this that has been sold on rather than a portion of Gulf Keystone's undiluted 75 per cent holding.

Gulf Keystone owns other interests in Kurdistan, and sources close to the company believe that at least another two of Exxon's six interests relate to these fields. However, this could not be confirmed yesterday.

The news will be a huge boost to Gulf Keystone's large investor base, which includes a vast number of highly active private investors. The company is one of the biggest on the junior Aim market and its share price has been held back by doubts over the validity of oil contracts in Kurdistan and, arguably, court cases involving boss Todd Kozel.

Baghdad has long argued that contracts signed with Kurdistan are invalid, as the government based in the Iraqi capital takes precedence. There have even been suggestions from Baghdad officials that Exxon has jeopardised its contract on the massive West Qurna-1 field in southern Iraq as a result of the Kurdistan news.

However, Exxon is considered to be a conservative company and oil experts feel that it would not have taken the leap of investing in Kurdistan unless Erbil and Baghdad were close to an agreement on how contracts are to be carved up. Chevron would not face Exxon's potential problems as it does not have any contracts in Baghdad-run southern Iraq.

A spokesman said: "Chevron continues to be interested in pursuing opportunities that help the Iraq government achieve its objectives for the oil and gas industry, while meeting our criteria for investment. We do not discuss specific business opportunities."

Gulf Keystone shares soared on Friday, up 25 per cent to 177.25p. Should the Exxon news prove correct, the group's value should grow higher, provoking feverish chatter that Exxon might attempt to buy Gulf Keystone ahead of its promotion to the main London Stock Exchange next April.

Gulf Keystone's investors are generally loyal and their faith could soon be rewarded. They have been defensive over press stories detailing two ongoing legal cases . One involves Excalibur Ventures, which claims that it is owed about 30 per cent of Gulf Keystone for introducing the company to opportunities in Kurdistan. Excalibur's claims have been fiercely contested, though it is believed that the mysterious US company has heavyweight financial backing.

The other is the estimated $100m divorce of Mr Kozel and his wife, Ashley. This has revealed details of Mr Kozel's share ownership of Gulf Keystone and how he entertained clients.

Another potential entrant to Kurdistan is BP. Former chief executive Tony Hayward recently went into the region through his Vallares investment vehicle, though at the end of last week BP dismissed speculation that it could soon follow. It is more concerned with its difficulties in Russia. On Friday, the group was celebrating a Siberian court victory, when a judge dismissed claims of $16bn against BP.

A minority shareholder in BP's Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, had claimed that the British group had denied the partnership billions of dollars, when, earlier this year, it agreed a complicated share swap arrangement with state-owned Rosneft that involved exploring the Arctic. This collapsed after AAR, the Russian partner in TNK-BP, argued that it defied the terms of their joint venture contract.

Minority shareholder Andrey Prokhorov argued that BP cost the partnership by not putting TNK-BP forward as Rosneft's partner. Eventually, Rosneft agreed to explore the Arctic with Exxon, leaving BP and TNK-BP out of the potentially lucrative deal