I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

19 Mar 2003 14:33 GMT



Israeli business sector seeks BA boycott



TEL AVIV (Reuters) - Israel's Manufacturers Association, an influential industry group, has called for a boycott of British Airways in response to the airline's decision to suspend flights to Tel Aviv.
British Airways BAY.L , one of the largest foreign carriers operating out of Israel, said on Tuesday it will suspend flights to and from Tel Aviv starting Wednesday night and until further notice.

The British carrier was the first foreign airline to suspend service to Israel but it is believed others will soon follow in light of growing expectations that a U.S.-led attack on Iraq is immiment.

"It is not acceptable that an airline, whichever it may be, will boycott Israel without any reason, when Israel is not involved in the war in Iraq," Manufacturers Association President Oded Tyrah said in a statement.

Tyrah is also chairman of the forum for coordination among Israeli economic organisation.

On Monday, Britain's Foreign Office advised against all travel to Israel. It said British nationals already in Israel were advised to leave as soon as possible unless their presence is essential. British nationals in the West Bank and Gaza should leave immediately.

The airline said that in light of the travel advisory issued by the Foreign Office, it had decided to suspend service into and out of Israel.

During the 1991 Gulf War when Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel, all foreign carriers halted flights to Israel. Only national carrier El Al Israel Airlines continued to fly.

"The safety and security of British Airways' operation is always our absolue priority and British Airways would not consider operating any flights until we are satisfied totally that it is safe to do so," Spencer Hanlon, manager of British Airways Israel, said on Thursday.

British Airways, which operates two nonstop flights a day to and from Israel, was the third largest foreign carrier to Israel in 2002. In 2001 it was the leading foreign carrier in Israel.

Well ains , they will certainly find it difficult to arrive on time , or at any time when they are grounded, but I presume on this occasion Sadam will take the blame.

Times

March 20, 2003

BA set to reopen airline sale talks
By Russell Hotten



BRITISH AIRWAYS is expected to reopen talks with Germania about selling the domestic German airline its loss-making subsidiary, Deutsche BA (DBA).
BA has been left with the troubled DBA after easyJet on Tuesday abandoned proposals to buy the airline because of a deterioration in the German aviation market. Germania made a bid for DBA two years ago, but was rejected because BA regarded the undisclosed price as too small.

BA is keen to begin fresh talks with potential buyers amid signs that DBA will make a substantial loss this year. The carrier is also thought to have made preliminary approaches to Germanwings, a division of Lufthansa, and Hapag-Lloyd Express, part of TUI.

Martin Wyatt, chief executive of DBA, said yesterday the airline, which has not made a profit since 1992, would make a big loss this year.

That loss is on the back of the existing strategy, he said.

BA said on Tuesday that it had no plans to close DBA and would continue to develop it as a low-cost airline.

DBA is a largely domestic carrier, but one strategy being considered by BA is to grow the airlines number of international services.

Looks good if there is a consensus

ains



By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Emi Emoto


TOKYO (Reuters) - The International Air Transport Association, a trade body representing 96 percent of the world's airlines flying international routes, has decided to raise regular fares on international flights by three percent due to high fuel costs, industry sources have said.


The IATA's decision comes as the global airline industry braces for a war in Iraq, which could mean a cut in passenger numbers and rising costs for fuel and security.


The fare rise, expected to take effect on April 15, was agreed at a meeting of IATA members in Geneva earlier this week and the group plans to make an official announcement at a later date, the sources said.


It would be the first IATA fare rise decision since March 2001, they added.


No comment was available from the IATA.


Peter Morris, the chief economist of the IATA, told Reuters in February that high oil prices had raised the share of fuel in airlines' costs to 15 percent from 12 percent.


Morris also said that a war in Iraq could mean another year of losses for global airlines, already suffering from cumulative losses of $30 billion in 2001 and 2002.


The September 11 attacks forced airlines to incur almost $7 billion in additional costs for extra security and insurance. To offset some of those costs, the airline industry has laid off about 200,000 workers in the past year.


WAR PREPARATIONS


Bracing for war, airlines have started to reduce costs, lay off staff and cut earnings forecasts.


U.S. carrier Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL - news) said on Wednesday it planned to cut $500 million in costs, including 1,200 job cuts by the end of the year, adding that a war might lead to more cost-cutting.


"If the anticipated war in Iraq is prolonged, or if other events further degrade revenue or increase costs, we will need to find additional savings or ways to generate more revenue in order to compete effectively," Continental Chief Executive Gordon Bethune said in a statement.


Australia's top carrier, Qantas Airways , said this week it planned to cut the equivalent of 1,000 jobs, or three percent of its workforce, to prepare for soft bookings. That announcement came one month after it axed 1,500 staff.


Asia's largest carrier, Japan Airlines System Corp , said earlier this month it would post an operating loss this year because of a slowdown in international flight reservations due to worries about a war in Iraq.


Jeff Young, head of Japan economic and market analysis at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney, said higher air prices would have a big impact on whether Japanese travellers went abroad.


"Japanese consumers do demonstrate quite a sensitivity to price," he said. "The stereotype is that they do not, but the data show they do and that element of price distinction is increasing the longer Japan's sluggish economy continues and the longer that wages fall."


Japanese airlines, including Japan Airlines System Corp and All Nippon Airways Co Ltd , plan to file for permission for the fare increase from the Transport Ministry.

Thursday, March 20, 2003 Posted: 0708 GMT ( 3:08 PM HKT)



Lufthansa expects passenger numbers to fall by 20 percent in the event of a war in Iraq

MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG said on Wednesday its 2002 operating profits rose strongly, but the result implied a fourth quarter operating loss wider than most analysts had expected.

The airline said operating profit rose to 718 million euros ($762.8 million) last year from 28 million in 2001 when profits were hit by a downturn in passenger traffic resulting from the September 11 attacks, the sluggish economy and a series of pilot strikes.

Sales inched up to 17 billion euros in 2002 from 16.7 billion euros the year before.

Crash landing time , down we go.

holding their own in a very mixed and volatile market


ains




03/20 09:50
British Airways, European Carriers Cut Routes as War Erupts
By James Regan


London, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc, Europe's biggest airline, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and other carriers cut flights and raised fares to counter an expected slump in air travel because of a war in Iraq.

British Airways suspended flights serving Tel Aviv and Kuwait. Lufthansa, Europe's third-biggest airline, canceled all flights from Frankfurt to the Middle East cities of Amman, Jordan; Beirut, Lebanon; Dammam, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait as well as services from Frankfurt and Munich to Tel Aviv.

``It's critical now that airlines are actively managing costs,'' said Kenneth Tang, who helps manages about $2 billion at Credit Agricole Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd. ``Most airlines are cutting back frequencies to the Middle East, so the question is whether they can manage the spare capacity at this time.''

International traffic is expected to fall 10 percent because of the Iraqi war, the International Air Transport Association said yesterday. Continental Airlines Inc. plans to eliminate 1,200 jobs as Chief Executive Officer Gordon Bethune said losses in the airline industry may be as high as $13 billion.

U.S. forces attacked Iraq early today, 90 minutes after a deadline that U.S. President George W. Bush gave Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to leave the country. Iraq fired two medium-range missiles into northern Kuwait, which Agence France-Presse reported weighed 3 metric tons and carried conventional warheads.

Lufthansa said 2003 earnings will decline with a drop in demand for air travel because of the Middle East conflict. ``An end is not yet in sight and it will be prolonged as a result of the Iraq conflict,'' said Chief Executive Officer Juergen Weber at a press conference.

Asian airlines also dropped flights and raised fares. Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's largest carrier, said it will raise fares on overseas flights by 3 percent, and Japan Air said it's considering doing the same on the recommendation of an industry association. Singapore Airlines Ltd. plans to reduce flights to the Middle East, the U.S. and possibly Europe.

Korean Air Co. suspended two weekly flights to Cairo via Dubai. Qantas on Tuesday said it will force more workers to take vacation which it said was equivalent to cutting 1,000 jobs.

Falling Traffic

Air New Zealand Ltd. today said demand for flights to London, Japanese destinations, Hong Kong and Singapore has fallen by 10 percent. Australia-based Macquarie Airports said passenger-count growth at Sydney and Rome airports has slowed.

``Whenever we have a war or terrorist events, people do defer flying unless it is absolutely urgent,'' said Arthur Lim, head of investment at Macquarie New Zealand Ltd.

Other airlines are reporting declining traffic.

``Our passenger and cargo volume will be affected,'' said Stanley Hui, chief executive officer of Hong Kong Dragon Airlines Ltd.

Rival Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Asia's fifth-largest carrier, has also seen bookings fall, said Alan Wong, the airline's general manager of corporate communications.

Airlines are also rerouting flights to avoid Iraqi airspace.

The International Air Transport Association said airlines will fly either north or south of Iraq, said Anthony Concil, a spokesman. There are no plans to fly over Tibet yet.

Singapore Airlines said its flights to London and Frankfurt today will fly through Afghanistan, and then north of Turkey.

Airlines will raise full-fare and other type of tickets, which account for 10 percent of bookings, to ``compensate for substantially increased costs'' said Concil.

SriLankan Airlines, part-owned by Dubai-based Emirates, imposed a $5 surcharge on one-way tickets as of March 12 as fuel prices rose. The jet fuel price in Singapore increased 24 percent in the last year, trading at $32.55 a barrel yesterday.

Falling a little now ,down a tick,and sure to fall a pile when the B52`s I watched just an hour ago, on SKY take off for Iraq.
Lets hope that ains gets back from Belgravia before the ` planes are grounded.

Q

good news ...


20 Mar 2003 12:49 GMT

BA says expects year profit despite war

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - British Airways Plc, Europe's biggest airline, said on Thursday it was still on track to post a profit this financial year, despite war in Iraq.
In early February, Chairman Colin Marshall said at its third-quarter results: "In the absence of hostilities in the Middle East, we expect this financial year to be profitable."

The United States unleashed a war on Thursday to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, just 12 days before the end of BA's financial year to March 31, 2003.

BA told Reuters that Marshall had told a closed investment conference last week: "Despite so many negative factors, we still expect to record a profit for this full financial year."

"The position today remains unchanged," a BA spokeswoman said. Marshall told Reuters in New York earlier this month the full-service carrier was in "good shape" to survive any war.

Down a lot more now , target for the day a quid

NO .... it's down just over 2% with the market

Thursday March 20, 02:58 PM





LONDON (Reuters) - Now war in Iraq threatens the beleaguered airline industry with another tailspin, carriers across the globe are preparing job cuts and selective fare increases to see them through the latest turbulence.


Airlines have lost $30 billion in the last two years and have warned that earnings in 2003 would be hit again as demand for tickets is expected to fall as much as 20 percent.


"Our assessment after September 11 has been proven right: the crisis will not be overcome within one year," Deutsche Lufthansa (Xetra: 823212.DE - news) Chief Executive Juergen Weber told a news conference.


Germany's largest airline said it would look to flexible work hours to trim costs, while other airlines said jobs would go.


Swiss International Air Lines (Zurich: SWIn.S - news) laid off 169 pilots, the first of 700 previously announced job cuts.


Finnair said it, too, would open lay-off talks as the Iraq crisis worsened already grim market conditions.


The moves followed an announcement on Wednesday by U.S. carrier Continental Airlines Inc (NYSE: CAL - news) that it would cut 1,200 job, with the possibility of more if war is prolonged.


"We need $500 million in annual cost savings and revenue generation to permit us to be a survivor during the worst financial crisis in aviation history," Continental Chief Executive Gordon Bethune said in a statement.


PRICE HIKE


The industry is in worse shape than at the time of the last Gulf war in 1991, with margins squeezed further as low-fare carriers grab market share.


To help airlines cope, Geneva-based trade association IATA said more than 100 airlines had agreed to boost some international ticket prices by 2-3 percent.


The increase, the first in two years, will affect only top-class, flexible business fares beginning on April 15, representing around five percent of the world market and will not apply in Europe.


"Increased insurance premiums, security costs, and fuel made it imperative to adjust fares," IATA spokesman William Gaillard said.


As war added urgency to cost-cutting plans, airlines around the world announced flight cancellations, some directly related to the Gulf region, others far afield.


Shares in Europe were mostly firmer by afternoon on hopes the war would be brief and jet fuel costs would ease, though British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon advised against such optimism.


"I would caution the House against suggestions that this campaign will be over in a very short time," Hoon told parliament in an emergency statement.


Britain also warned its citizens of heightened travel risks, including vacation destinations.


British Airways Plc (LSE: BAY.L - news - msgs) , Europe's largest carrier, was up 0.21 percent at 119 pence as of 1332 GMT.


It said on Thursday it was still on track to post a profit this financial year, despite war.


Lufthansa was up 2.89 percent at 8.90 euros, despite reporting a 2002 operating profit a day earlier that fell short of analysts' forecasts.


AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR - news) , parent of American Airlines Inc, the world's largest carrier, closed up 7.6 percent at $1.84 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.


Jet fuel prices on Europe's benchmark cargo market were lower in afternoon trade, down $10 a tonne at $305.


Crude oil prices have surged 50 percent in the last four months on concerns over Iraq, though in recent sessions prices have eased.


London's Brent crude was down $0.15 at $26.60.


European and Asian carriers are seen better prepared for the war than their hard-hit peers in the United States, where UAL Corp (NYSE: UAL - news) 's United Airlines and US Airways Group Inc are already in bankruptcy.


Still, the industry's troubles have reached around the world, with Australia's Qantas Airways announcing it would cut three percent of its workforce and Singapore Airlines Ltd set to cut eight percent of its flights.


British Airways, Lufthansa and Japan Airlines System Corp, along with several U.S. peers, have been placed on the CreditWatch list of credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's.

All helps .....


Worlds largest airlines cut flights and jobs
21/03/2003 07:43


By Kathy Fieweger

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Several of the worlds biggest airlines have announced cuts in jobs and flight schedules, beginning what is expected to be a wave of reductions because of a slump in travel made worse by the Iraq war.

Bankrupt United Airlines , the worlds No. 2 air carrier, told employees to expect unpaid leaves and capacity cuts. Air Canada said the war underscored a need to cut 3,600 of 40,000 workers this year.

AMR Corp.s American Airlines, the worlds largest airline, said it would cut international flights by 6 percent in April as an initial step because of the war, trimming some flights to Europe and Latin America.

"Even as we keep working, day in and day out, to keep this company afloat, we will have to trim some capacity as prices and supplies are impacted by the war," AMR Chief Executive Donald Carty told the airlines employees.

AMR is struggling to stay out of bankruptcy protection, a fate that has already claimed two major U.S. airlines -- UAL Corps United Airlines and US Airways Group Inc. .

The U.S.-led war in Iraq could not have come at a worse time for global airlines, which have lost billions of dollars since the Sept. 11, 2001, hijack attacks on the United States.

The war has hit airline bookings, especially international travel, and has left some airports quiet as travelers opt to stay home.

"International has been soft for weeks," said Carol Jouzaitis, a spokeswoman for the online travel site Orbitz. "Since Monday its dropped sharply. The international schedules are all being adjusted."

During the 1991 Gulf War, transatlantic bookings also suffered the most. But the industry is in worse shape now than it was then, with margins squeezed further as low-fare carriers grab market share.

Anticipating customer wariness, airlines recently announced relaxed cancellation policies, giving passengers one free change of plans without being penalized.

Analysts called the move a smart one, given the uncertainty afflicting an industry reeling as never before.

"We would expect demand trends to continue to worsen for the U.S. carriers," said Jamie Baker, an analyst with J.P. Morgan.

Shares of AMR Corp. and UAL Corp. closed weaker on Thursday, and the American Stock Exchanges airline index < .XAL> fell by 0.3 percent.

SIGNALING TROUBLE

USAir, looking to emerge from bankruptcy at the end of March, said on Thursday that crucial talks on a new pension plan for pilots had reached an impasse.

Two days after clearing a milestone in its reorganization plan, John Butler, the companys bankruptcy attorney, delivered a downcast report on operations at the No. 7 airline, now under added pressure from the war.

"On the second day of this war it is not a bright picture for the airline industry, and there are issues we have to confront," the lawyer said. A US Air spokesman said bookings were down 20 percent last week and off 40 percent on Wednesday.

But U.S. airlines with the heaviest exposure to the transatlantic market, such as US Air and No. 3 carrier Delta Air Lines , have not yet announced changes to their flight schedules.

Changes were expected within days because many U.S. corporations are telling employees to stick only to essential travel and to avoid certain Middle East countries altogether.

Industry experts noted that after the Sept. 11 attacks, it took airlines as much as a week to figure out how much demand was slipping and how to deal with it.

CONSERVING CASH, AGAIN

With the war under way, it was far from business as usual, industry sources said, as airlines reviewed various contingency plans in an extremely depressed financial environment in which sources of capital have dried up.

U.S. airlines still hold out hope for government aid. A key Republican lawmaker, Congressman John Mica of Florida, said on Thursday he was reviewing possible aid to U.S. airlines and waiting for a White House signal on whether and when Congress should mitigate the carriers expected losses from the war.

"Ill bet you every airline CEO is calculating daily receipts and advance bookings and seeing how things stand over the next day, over the next week, over the next month," said an airline industry banker. "For the U.S. airlines, to have as much liquidity and cash as possible is the key. Thats how an airline stays afloat."

The top U.S. carriers have lost nearly $20 billion in the last two years and have warned that 2003 earnings would be hit again as demand for tickets is expected to fall as much as 20 percent.

Just hours before the attack on Iraq began late on Wednesday, Continental Airlines, the No. 5 U.S. carrier, announced $500 million in cost cuts and 1,200 layoffs as the unprecedented aviation crisis showed no signs of abating.

ACROSS THE POND

In Europe, the story was much the same.

Deutsche Lufthansa , Germanys largest airline, said it would look to flexible work hours to trim costs. Swiss International Air Lines laid off 169 pilots, the first of 700 previously announced job cuts.

Finnair said it too would open layoff talks as the Iraq crisis worsened already grim market conditions.

To help airlines cope, the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association said more than 100 airlines had agreed to boost some international ticket prices by 2 percent to 3 percent.

Australias Qantas Airways announced a 3 percent staff cut and Singapore Airlines Ltd. said it would cut 8 percent of its flights.


2003 Reuters

Intraday - 120p and outperforming the market - at a two month high ..... which is nice



ains

Starting to wonder what happened to all the shorters on this stock :-)) - now up a third since they last came on here to crow about their shorts .... up nearly 5% intraday @ 122p and in the top ten risers



ains

Still moving up and number two in the ftse100 risers list @ 125p


FRANKFURT (AFX) - Deutsche Lufthansa AG said it is increasing cargo transportation charges by 0.10 eur per kilo from March 25 due to extra costs caused by the war in Iraq, such as higher fuel usage.
The surcharge will remain in place until normal flights resume once the conflict is over, it said.

scs/jsa

By Yvette Essen Telegraph
(Filed: 22/03/2003)


BA soars as nerves settle

Hopes that war with Iraq will be over shortly gave British Airways a further lift, making it one of the leading blue-chip risers yesterday.

It rose 8.5 to 125p after the airline said its crisis team had decided not to suspend any more services. It has already unveiled plans to suspend flights to Kuwait and Israel. The shares have now risen by 39p, or 45pc, over the past seven days of trading.

BA's share price had almost halved since January on investors' concerns about when the conflict would begin.

Analysts said that investors now expect the battle to be swiftly over, which will result in passengers feeling more secure about travelling again. Moody's Investors Services is more cautious, and has placed BA's debt rating on review for possible downgrade.

LOL - you'll be pleased to know that i am offside with BAY now Ains, im not offside enough to be in your special league but wrt to my last trade in BAY, at this point in time, i technically would of made more money going long than short. Im still happy to sit on it, and i have a fair way b4 being stopped out. no amount of cutting and pasting will help BAY, their goose is cooked.

However...

ainsoph - 19 Mar'03 - 09:07 - 177 of 202


interestingly, I do always seem to do a lot better than the shorters ....

interestingly, I remember you buying @ 180p!!
LOL!!!!!!

tpaulbeaumont - you are one weird peeps ...... I don't recall buying BAY @ 180p ........ but as they were last at 180p some 8 months ago or so - it's not surprising. I have probably bought and sold 180 times since then.

Suggest you stay up to date and look to the future. You short peeps seem to trade in a strange way - you recall a possible purchase (you claim) I made many many months ago but you don't recall me buying at sub 90p just a few days ago .... weird - really really weird


ainsoph


BTW - when did I buy @ 180p and more importantly - when did I sell them :-))

ok, well i guess that your initial stake was larger than the size of you recent stakes, afterall there are some serious loses to contend with. So lets say you averaged down at 90p, your still long c135, BEST CASE scenario. WORST CASE(highly likely given your past performance) your long from c250, and scalped a couple hundred shares @ 90p in a futile attempt to make back some losses! Obviously you'll manipulate and deny everything I've said but its probably close, and its probably indicative of your entire trading history!!! is'nt it Ains ;D