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UK Banks (BANK)     

BigTed - 17 Mar 2008 09:47

Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.


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scotinvestor - 07 Jun 2008 02:56 - 188 of 331

i have been informed by an rbs manager that when nrk were bailed out by uk peoples money to tune of several thousands pounds for each person in country, if rbs are to be bailed out, then you can easily put an extra zero on the figure at least.....ouch!! that means every person in uk has to pay 40,000 each!!!

and most people r struggling.......even the aussie bankers r leaving london to go back to oz as they r fed up looking at poor people in uk

hlyeo98 - 07 Jun 2008 16:25 - 189 of 331

In the Financial Times today, many brokers including Hargreaves Lansdowne said Bradford & Bingley is a SELL.

hlyeo98 - 08 Jun 2008 13:30 - 190 of 331

It's been a day to forget for shareholders of struggling building-society-turned-bank Bradford & Bingley (LSE: BB.) . B&B's shares were suspended from trading at 7.52am, only to be reinstated at 8.10am after the lender issued a profit warning. In a stock-market announcement, the UK's eighth-largest bank revealed five shockers:

1. US private-equity firm Texas Pacific Group is buying a 23% stake in the bank at 55p a share, for a total of 179 million.

2. B&B's recently announced rights issue has been scrapped and replaced by a restructured issue of 258 million. The original rights issue, announced last month, offered new shares to existing shareholders at 82p. As the market price is now below this level, shareholders can buy B&B shares more cheaply in the stock market. Hence, the previous rights issue was cancelled. The new deal offers shareholders 19 new shares at 55p for every 25 shares held.

3. B&B made an 8 million pre-tax loss for January to April, versus a 108 million profit in the same period of 2007. B&B had expected to make 150 million in the first four months of 2008.

4. The lender warned of tough times to come for the UK housing market, as write-offs, bad debts and arrears rise in buy-to-let lending.

5. B&B's chief executive, Steven Crawshaw, is suffering from a heart condition and has stepped down. We wish him a speedy return to health.

There may be trouble ahead...
Naturally, B&B's share price plunged, with other banks' shares following suit. Having closed at 88.25p on Friday, Bradford & Bingley's share price dived as low as 60p (down 32%), before recovering to 66p (down 22%) as I write.

Bradford & Bingley is particularly exposed to specialist mortgage lending, including buy to let (where it is the market leader), self-certification (alias liar loans') and negative-equity and 100%+ loans.

The big worry for Bradford & Bingley (and other mortgage lenders and property investors) is that its buy-to-let business model has never been stress-tested in a housing downturn. B&B is the UK's largest lender in the buy-to-let sector, with a share of a fifth (20%) of this 120 billion market.

justyi - 08 Jun 2008 13:39 - 191 of 331

No one knows how buy to let will play out if house prices fall for a sustained period. It may even be the case that the buy-to-let bubble has burst and this model has broken down. When times get tough, homeowners will be a better bet than property investors, so the future looks grim for B&B.

You'd have to be a very brave investor to buy shares in Bradford & Bingley at present. The long-awaited housing-market downturn has only just begun, and the UK economy has yet to go into recession. Nevertheless, B&B is already showing signs of financial strain, even though the worst is still yet to come.

Therefore, things look pretty nasty for B&B's owners. TPG Capital is paying 55p a share for almost a quarter of Bradford & Bingley, with the replacement rights issue at the same price. Therefore, there is no reason why existing shareholders should value their shares at much above this level. What's more, the dividend will definitely be cut later in the year.

In short, if I were a shareholder in B&B, I would head for the exit by selling my shares.

hlyeo98 - 11 Jun 2008 12:14 - 192 of 331

Virgin Money rules out B&B bid - By Philip Aldrick
Last Updated: 12:55am BST 11/06/2008

Jayne-Anne Gadhia, chief executive of Virgin Money, has ruled out a bid for Bradford & Bingley, insisting that buying such a "damaged brand... would be insane", despite pitching a 1.25bn offer for Northern Rock last year.

Ms Gadhia, who led the bid on behalf of Sir Richard Branson's outfit, claimed B&B did not fit Virgin Money's strategy to take customer deposits and offer mortgages and investments.

She said: "It would be insane to pay for access to the banking world by taking on risk that was unmanageable.

Northern Rock would have given us huge scale and profile immediately. The big difference between Northern Rock and B&B is the quality in the balance sheet."

B&B's mortgage arrears are above the industry average at 1.98pc and its profit margins are deteriorating. Northern Rock was appealing because it made "sound and sensible" investments, Ms Gadhia said. Its arrears level was 0.95pc in April, below the industry average of 1.1pc.

"Looking at the liability side of B&B's balance sheet, it wasn't as good as Northern Rock's because the buy-to-let and self-certification loans they made are perceived as high risk," she said.

dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 14:54 - 193 of 331

market collapsing. RBS 216p and HBOS at rights price!

robertalexander - 11 Jun 2008 15:15 - 194 of 331

would suggest this is a good time to hold cash and be in a position to buy cheap(er) banking shares like RBS. They have already had their rights issue (RI) and raised cash so hopefully despite their weak trading statement they will recover without any further dilution in the short term.

If HBOS go below rights issue SP will they have to re think RI price?
I mean those that hold wont take up their holding as they can top for less if that is there wish.

I hold a very small number of HBOS and LLOY and am not about to increase my holdings in them any time soon. RBS is on my watch list

dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 15:19 - 195 of 331

I think HBOS will have to reduce it and heads will roll.

If RBS gets less than rights price heads should also roll.

spitfire43 - 11 Jun 2008 16:13 - 196 of 331

it is always difficult to decide when to invest, I had 355 as my next purchase for lloy, but with fear gripping the market, why buy now. if RBS falls below the ri price I would be tempted to take a nibble, they are in a much improved position having got the ri away first.

halifax - 11 Jun 2008 16:55 - 197 of 331

If there were ever a time for banks to issue quarterly results as in the US now is that time as the market needs hard numbers rather than vague noises of reassurance.

scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:03 - 198 of 331

rbs gave a trading update today.....they have tried to be as honest as they can in last few months.
rbs looks good to buy now i think......dont think there much bad news left and i think they have over calculated their losses to be on safe side.

aye, hbos.....as i said on hbos thread, hornby should be sacked.....as he wont resign....he acts like a politician.....has he ever been to scotland yet? sounds like the damn prime minister.
never attended agm! speaks volumes that does.....he aint a banker with no experience.....he's just a wee boy in big financial world....and his silence is deafening. he's also raided BoS pension funds and union bank pensions funds.....totally SHAMEFUL.....AND WAY BANK PENSIONERS ARE TREATED IS DREADFUL TOO.

scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:05 - 199 of 331

THE MARKET BOYS dont know their ar?e from their elbow anyway.....why should they when they get bonuses of half a miliuon........after a couple of years pis?ing about, they can sod off to australia, europe or wherever the prats come from

scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:14 - 200 of 331

banks have little money.....houses to go down at least another 20% over next 18 months......houses gone down 13k already on averahge so i reckon peole will lose About another 40k....haha, more than 50k in just 2 years lost on each house.

but companies r struggling with funding....and banks wont fund unless its a ceretainty.....mortgages r very hard to get unless u r wealthy, so why need them.

mervyn king said house prices even after reduction will be STAGNANT EVEN IN 4 YEARS TIME. lol

seems that capitalism is not just stuggling but collapsing before our eyes.

is it not about time that uk started a communist government where the state look after us? food bills r enormous, gas / oil rocketing.....cars will be dead as petrol is extortionate.....everyone i know is struggling in life

dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 20:36 - 201 of 331

Scot.

I agree with you!!!

Marxism is not dead. The way my shares have performed today, they are!

seriously, tell me, in your humble opinion, where is RBS sp going?

I'm tempted to sell my paid rights. Some analysts are making +ve noises, others are still slagging the company off after the trading statement.

scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 01:17 - 202 of 331

i'm pretty sure medium and long term, rbs will go up.....i reckon to 4.50 to 5 in 2 or so years......it will take time to unravel amro integration savings.....and they will have made handsome profits from angel train, bank of china etc......remember institutions stopped fred goodwin from putting too much into china!!

how many people in media say that.....china has tripled rbs value already.

short term who knows.....and in current dreadful crappy uk, even more hazardous to guess.....all u need is for gordon to go on tv and say stability and market collapses, lol. i'm embarassed that brown, darling and browne are scottish.....mind you, not many scots left in scotland these days....suppose its same with english in england.

i thought rbs right issue had gone through.....for what its worth, i'd have taken them up.....if it does hit 2 or go less, it wont last too long

in less than 6 months, i'm sure most major will have turned the corner at least.
as i say, buy and check them in 2010.....u will get good divi too.....and i reckon double digit increase in sp.....better than putting cash in bank!! lol

scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 01:24 - 203 of 331

these analysts sit in some fancy office in usa with some dodgy american investment bank!!

or some other stupid office in london!

if u want to know about banking, come to scotland....jes, we have been showing the world for centuries now.
actually british linen bank confounded marx theory about banking crisis as they were ist bank to have a branch system.....they were scottish even though "british" in name.

i have spoken to 2 fairly senior people in investments in rbs and they assure me next year onwards that rbs will be shown to be a good investment.

dealerdear - 12 Jun 2008 07:45 - 204 of 331

Cheers scot

halifax - 12 Jun 2008 08:46 - 205 of 331

Not many scots left in Scotland because they have all gone to England to run the country (into the ground), arent they making a good job of it!!

scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 13:15 - 206 of 331

you are making yourself look like a total idiot halifax today with your bitter messages.

most scots have gone to oz, canada, nz etc actually if you care to look at facts!

yes, FACTS, SOMETHING THAT YOU DONT SEEM TO DO.

now go and sort that crap building society out that u have.
why u on share website, i'd imagine yorkshire folk would cry if they spent even a penny!!!! tighter than a crabs arse and thats water tight.

halifax - 12 Jun 2008 13:24 - 207 of 331

Well, well wee jock having insulted us yorkshiremen you had better hurry and find that big stick before we find you!
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