how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Snoball et al:
Good afternoon just got in and am watching the action.Looks more downside to come -might just shoot up then plop down.Lets see what happens.

rgds
zarif

ooops wrong Dow!!
edit: corrected now.
Still looks like a lower low.

Any other opinions?

Afternoon zarif.

Morning.
Double bottom or not it looks like the Dow may be headed
back up to 10300 as Insider suggested.

Afternoon all:
Sorry didnot post anything or trade yesterday as a mark of respect for David Anderson(croc) who passed away yesterday.

rgds
zarif

Ps: below is the comments from R.balan of Saxo bank.

Stock Market View:

May 26, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer and home sales reports bolstered confidence that the world's largest economy will keep growing even as oil prices rise. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks in the region, gained 1.4 percent to 87.36 at 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 2.3 percent and the Topix index rose 1.5 percent. Stocks on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday had their broadest rally in a decade. All stock benchmarks open in Asia advanced, except those in China. Markets in South Korea and Hong Kong are closed today for holidays.



- Japan's trade surplus narrowed for the second month in April as demand for factory and consumer goods boosted imports to a record. The trade surplus shrank to 985.5 billion yen ($8.81 billion), seasonally adjusted, from a revised 1 trillion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. The surplus had been expected to shrink to 892 billion yen, according to the median of 13 forecasts in a survey.




- Crude oil futures in New York rose for the second day in three on speculation that production increases pledged by Saudi Arabia won't be sufficient to restore low gasoline supplies before peak summer driving demand in the U.S. U.S. gasoline demand is 3.5 percent higher than the same time last year, while supplies in the week ended May 14 were 2.3 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Crude oil reached a record $41.83 a barrel yesterday even after Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, said it would boost output to 9 million barrels a day next month to help lower prices.




Equity Market Summary -


U.S. equities soared, encouraged by a moderation in the price of crude oil, resulting in its first significant gains in more than a month. The Dow jumped 1.6%, finishing above 10,000 for the first time in seven trading days, while the S&P added 1.6% and the Nasdaq soared 2.2%. Two key economic indicators were released, although with the markets preoccupied by energy prices, both failed to significantly sway investors. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index realized a small gain in May while existing home sales soared beyond expectations, posting their second best month on record.



Oil futures traded lower earlier, and stocks got the push they needed; after a lackluster morning, stocks trended steadily higher and buyers came out of the woodwork like they haven't for many sessions. Volume wasn't particularly heavy, but the gains were extremely widespread -- advancers led decliners by a wide margin on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.



The morning economic numbers had little impact, as May Consumer Confidence was little changed from April, and existing home sales strength was seen as not all that surprising, and probably temporary.

European equity markets ended the day lower. The FTSE 100 in London shed 0.3%, while the DAX in Frankfurt surrendered 1.0% and the CAC 40 in Paris ended the day 0.5% lower. European markets were lower after a subdued opening on Wall Street. While crude oil prices receded from their record highs marked yesterday, concerns about the adverse effect of high energy prices on corporate profits were lingering. Losses were largest among telecom shares. The IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, which showed a marginal decline for May, also failed to provide any momentum as the outlook calls for continuing, but fragile, growth in Europe’s largest economy.




Equity Technicals:




- DAX Index - the index found support at 3810 and may rally back towards the 3900 area today. The rally may even extend to 4000 late in the week. Nonetheless, we may yet get another sell-off to the 3710 base further out. However, prospects of further declines to 3660 - 3650 may be in jeopardy -- a deeper correction is running out of time. Strong support at 3700 may initiate a new bull market cycle from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index may rally back to 4470 area. Nonetheless, we still see further downmoves to the 4365 base; however, 4320 downside objective may be out of reach as time is running out on the correction phase. Firm support at 4365 may kick off a new bull market cycle should from there.


- S&P 500 - further upmove beyond 1120 today suggests that the 1060 objective may not be attainable in the current trading cycle. Nonetheless, we still see another probe of 1080 baseline after which support will likely appear --and expect to see a new upcycle initiate.


- Dow - further rally above 10,250 today suggests that the 9700 downside objective may be out of contention. Nonetheless, another probe of 9800 base may follow from there -- where a new bull market cycle should commence.


- NDX 100 - the index may rally further and if 1480 is taken out, then the 1330 downside target won't be seen in this trading cycle. Nonetheless, another go at 1375 baseline should occur thereafter, then a new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend recovery will probably extend further and we may see further upmoves to 11,400 - 11,450. Expect a quick decline thereafter, perhaps a retest of the low, followed by a new trip to 10,700.


- Hang Seng - the uptick may yet extend to 12,000. Nonetheless, the downtrend should resume later -- the sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there.





==============================================



May 25, 2004 - New York



- Business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, dropped for the third month in four in May as stagnating consumer spending and higher oil prices threatened to restrain an economic recovery. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its confidence index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, declined to 96.1 from 96.3 in April. Economists predicted a reading of 96. The benchmark DAX 30 stock index dropped as much as 1.5 percent. The biggest increase in exports since the end of 2000 kept Germany's economy growing in the first three months as consumer spending failed to increase for the fourth straight quarter. Higher oil prices and health-care costs boosted the inflation rate to the highest in more than two years this month, adding another deterrent to household demand.


- German inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years in May after the price of oil surged to a record this month. The annual inflation rate rose to 2.1 percent, the highest since January 2002, from 1.6 percent in April, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists had expected an rate of 2 percent, the median of forecasts in a survey showed. From a month ago, prices gained 0.3 percent. Higher oil prices are making fuel-related products more expensive and may push inflation across the dozen-nation euro region above the ECB's 2 percent ceiling ``over the short term,'' the bank said earlier this month.


- Precious metals advanced across the board in Europe on Tuesday morning with gold benefiting as oil price concerns sent the dollar lower, while silver donned its base metals hat for a rally, but dealers said more gains would be needed to confirm an uptrend. Oil price worries dented the dollar across the board as investors fretted the high cost of crude could apply the brakes to the U.S. economy and keep interest rates lower for longer -- highlighting gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty.



U.S. Data Preview:


1) Conference Board consumer confidence for May (Tuesday, 10:00 am ) - The consensus calls for the Conference Board consumer confidence index to rise to 94.1 from April’s 92.9.

Several factors are impacting on consumer moods : Gasoline prices, which have just breached the psychologically important $2/gallon price, would presumably be a key negative influence. Rising interest rates and an uptick in consumer price inflation, may also add to the overall drag on consumer moods. Polls also indicate that the situation in Iraq is also an important concern.

2. Existing home sales for April (Tuesday, 10:00 am ) - The consensus calls for existing home sales to slip to 6.4 million annualized units from March’s extremely high 6.48 million units.

Existing home sales tend to lag new home sales and mortgage applications by a month or two and, thus, the relevant guidance would come from March data. Mortgage rates hit a new low for the year in March and applications jumped 6.7%; moreover, new home sales soared by 8.9% in March. Unfavorable weather conditions in January and early February likely pushed some of the sales associated with these January and February applications to March. The fading of this temporary lift suggests a modest decline in April turnove





Indications in the stock market :




Off their earlier lows, the futures indications continue to trade below fair value and point to a lower open in the cash market. There are no economic reports in the pre-open session, however the Consumer Confidence report for May and the Existing Home Sales report for April will be reported at 10:00 EST.

U.S. stock-index futures dropped after OPEC ministers said oil prices may remain above $30 a barrel, rekindling concern that higher energy costs will crimp corporate profits and limit consumer spending. Two-thirds of the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell in Europe, including Intel Corp., McDonald's Corp. and SBC Communications Inc. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June slid 4.2 to 1092.40 at 11:46 a.m. in London. Dow futures shed 35 to 9935 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures lost 8 to 1410.

European stocks fell after OPEC said oil prices may stay above $30 a barrel, crimping economic and corporate earnings growth. The Stoxx 50 shed 1 percent to 2647.38 as of 11:24 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.9 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries using the euro, slid 1 percent. Benchmark indexes fell in all 17 Western European markets, except Ireland and Norway. France's CAC 40 Index dropped 0.7 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.7 percent. June futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 shed 0.8 percent to 2684.





Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index extended Monday's bearish tone and has been to 3810; the sell-off will probably extend further today towards the area of 3785. Expect a recovery back to 3825 thereafter. Nonetheless, the countertrend rally is probably over and the sell-off should shortly accelerate lower with focus at the 3710 base. Further sell-offs still due further down the road -- the primary objective may be the area of 3660 - 3650 next week. But strong support awaits at the mid-3600s, and a new bull market cycle may commence from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index opened sharply lower and has been to 4395. The sell-off will likely extend further today and we may see the likes of 4385 - 4380. Expect a bounce back to 4410 - 4415 thereafter. But be that as it may, the downtrend has likely resumed with the 4355 base as target. We still expect to see the index falling further next week -- possibly to 4320, but more likely to 4290 area. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- S&P 500 - further declines should follow today which may eventually reach the 1076 low, then towards 1060 in the next few days. Support will likely appear at those levels -- expect to see the index firm up and may commence a new upcycle.


- Dow - the blue chips resumes the downtrend today -- expect further declines to the 9840 base, then should eventually push through to 9750. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- NDX 100 - the index should sell-off below 1410 and may eventually follow-through to the 1370 base then further to 1330. A new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend recovery made it almost to 11,200. The sell-off may have started and should accelerate further thereafter in the next few days with 10,200 - 10,000 as objectives. A new bull market cycle initates from there.


- Hang Seng - the uptick may yet extend to 11,800, but odds slimmer now than yesterday. Nonetheless, the downtrend should resume later -- the sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there.

Stock Market View:

May 26, 2004 - Europe



- Japanese stocks rose, led by telecommunication companies. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.3 percent to 11,184.20 as of 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index added 0.3 percent to 1130.40. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks in the region, added 0.6 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose a second day. Stock benchmarks in all markets open in Asia advanced bar Taiwan's Taiex index.


- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Steve Nickell said a doubling of Britain's main interest rate would be ``quite extraordinary,'' easing concerns of a surge in borrowing costs, the London-based Times said, citing an interview with Nickell. Rates are unlikely to rise above 7 percent, the newspaper cited Nickell as saying, while an increase above 8 percent would mean something is wrong with the bank's framework. ``If we do our job, which is keeping inflation and inflation expectations under control, then such rates would be quite extraordinary,'' the Times cited Nickell as saying.


- Japanese retail sales fell in April for the second month in three as corporations cut costs by spending less on gifts for clients and consumer prices extend a six-year slide. Retail sales dropped a seasonally adjusted 1 percent from March, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo. That compares with a median 0.2 percent decline forecast. Sales were unchanged in March. From a year earlier, retail sales fell 0.8 percent in April. The Topix Retail Index fell 0.1 percent to 755.290 at 10:23 a.m. in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index rose 0.4 percent to 1131.65.


- U.S. Treasury notes may fall on expectations a report today will show the economy grew faster in the first quarter than some had initially estimated. The U.S. economy may have expanded at a 4.5 percent annual pace in the first quarter, faster than the 4.2 percent pace the government estimated last month, according to the median forecast of economists. Faster growth may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise its key lending rate next month from a four-decade low of 1 percent to curb inflation.


- Crude oil in New York fell for a third day after the Energy Department yesterday reported that a year-on- year U.S. gasoline supply deficit declined last week. Gasoline inventories in the week ended May 21 were 1 percent lower than a year earlier, down from the previous week's 2.3 percent deficit. Oil surged 14 percent over the past two months and some traders say near-record oil and gasoline prices already reflect peak U.S. summer motor fuel demand. Crude oil for July delivery fell as much as 25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $40.45 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the NYME. It traded at $40.53 at 10:19 a.m. Sydney time.


- New home sales dropped 11.8% in April to 1.093 million annualized units, the sharpest decline since 1994. The plunge in sales was a bit surprising as mortgage purchase applications hit a new record high in April. While purchase applications have tapered off since then, the apparent divergence in April suggests that sales could rise significantly yet in May. Also, home-builders reported strong traffic of buyers in May. That said, home sales, both new and existing, are certain to moderate in the quarters ahead as mortgage interest rates rise further.





Equity Market Summary -


Stocks were mixed; the Dow finished down nearly 8 points or 0.1%. The S&P rose 0.2% while the Nasdaq added 0.6%.


The indices' ability to hold near the unchanged mark was an encouraging sign for a market that posted a 1.6-2.2% gain yesterday. The Dow and Nasdaq finished above their 200-day simple moving averages for a second day in a row, despite a press conference by Attorney General Ashcroft who announced that al Qaeda is planning to launch an attack.


There was a slew of less than encouraging economic data. April Durable Goods dropped 2.9% (consensus of -0.8%) - although it is important to note that the March gain was revised to a stronger +5.7% - and April New Home sales declined 12% for their largest drop in 10 years, to 1.093 mln (consensus of 1.20 mln).


The weak housing data point weighed heavily on the home-builders, which were among the weakest groups of the day despite a better than expected Q2 (Apr) report from Toll Brothers (TOL 40.45 -0.95). The energy group also suffered large losses following a $0.34 drop in the price of crude oil to $40.80/bbl... An Energy Department report showed US oil inventories unchanged last week. Other than that, most groups possessed a positive bias, with notable standouts being semiconductor, biotech, and auto.


European equity markets ended the day in the black. The FTSE 100 in London advanced 0.5%, while the DAX in Frankfurt added 1.0% and the CAC 40 in Paris finished the day 1.4% higher. European bourses started out strongly, but surrendered some early gains after Wall Street opened in a more subdued mood. Investors across the Atlantic were more cautious after yesterday’s rally and were also caught by surprise by weaker-than-expected durable goods orders. European stocks advanced amid optimism that higher energy prices won't slow the pace of corporate profit growth. Industries most sensitive to economic expansion, such as technology and cars, led gains. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 0.7 percent to 2680.32. The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.9 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries sharing the euro, increased 1.1 percent.





Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index may yet extend further towards 3920. Nonetheless, the scenario has not changed -- we may yet get another sell-off to the 3710 base further out. However, prospects of further declines to 3660 - 3650 may be in jeopardy -- a deeper correction is running out of time. Strong support at 3700 may initiate a new bull market cycle from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index may yet retest the 4460 top later in the day. Nonetheless, we still see further downmoves to the 4365 base; however, 4320 downside objective may be out of reach as time is running out on the correction phase. Firm support at 4365 may kick off a new bull market cycle should from there.


- S&P 500 - further upmove beyond 1130 suggests that the 1060 objective may not be attainable in the current trading cycle. Nonetheless, we still see another probe of 1080 baseline after which support will likely appear --and expect to see a new upcycle initiate.


- Dow - we are in suspended animation as we await to see if further rally above 10,250 will happen -- in which case, suggests that the 9700 downside objective may be out of contention. Nonetheless, another probe of 9800 base may follow from there -- where a new bull market cycle should commence.


- NDX 100 - the index may rally further and if 1480 is taken out, then the 1330 downside target won't be seen in this trading cycle. Nonetheless, another go at 1375 baseline should occur thereafter, then a new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the counter-trend recovery will probably extend further and we may see further upmoves to 11,400 - 11,450. Expect a quick decline thereafter, perhaps a retest of the 10,700 base.


- Hang Seng - the uptick may yet extend to 12,000 - 12,500. Nonetheless, the downtrend should resume later -- the sell-off targets the 11.000 base next - a new bull market upcycle should initiate there.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

8:30 AM ET. Preliminary GDP (expected +4.5%; previous +4.2%)

8:30 AM ET. Initial Jobless Claims (expected -10K; previous +13K)

8:30 AM ET. Preliminary Corporate Profits (+7.6%)

8:30 AM ET. USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

8:30 AM ET. NOPA April Soybean Crush Report

10:00 AM ET. Conference Help Wanted Index (previous 39)

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTM Business Barometer (previous -0.1%)

4:30 PM ET. Money Supply


The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's
breakout above resistance marked by the 40-day moving average
crossing at 1445.74. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this
week's rally, a test of the 62% retracement level of the April-May
decline crossing at 1461.21 is possible later this spring. The June
NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 points at 1458 as of 6:43 AM ET. Overnight
action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ
composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher in overnight trading and is
challenging resistance marked by the 40-day moving average crossing at
1117.43. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible. If June extends its rally off this month's low, a
test of the 62% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at
1129.07 is possible later this spring. The June S&P 500 Index was up
1.70 pts. at 1117.70 as of 6:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage
for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this
morning.

Morning.
If you take the 5th of April High as the high and the 12th of May Low as the low of a trend on the S&P 500 then 1122 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the low. Any bets as to whether strong resistance will be found at this level today?

Snoball:
A very good morning to you and all.
I agree with you in that the S&P will have tough time at 1122-1125 to contend with.Also if you look at yesterdays performance of the ftse managing some say 15points up when athe dow was having a triple digit gain just makes you wonder that does the ftse signal that something is wrong or they dont believe in the Us that everything is hunky dory?
But as usual we shall not be concerned whether it is a bull or bear position but TO be IN the RIGHT position.

rgds
zarif

this is the saxo bank analysis by r.balan
Stock Market View:

May 28, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks rose after Japanese and U.S. economic reports indicated growth in the world's two largest economies is accelerating. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks, gained 1.2 percent to 89.40 at 1:38 p.m. in Tokyo. It's heading for its third straight advance, which will be its longest winning streak since the three days ended April 7. It's risen 3.1 percent this week. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.4 percent while the Topix index rose 1.3 percent, after household spending had its biggest jump in April since on record. In South Korea, the Kospi index climbed 1.2 percent.


- Japanese manufacturers increased production by 3.3 percent in April, the second month of gains, to meet surging global demand for steel, cell phones and semiconductors. The seasonally adjusted increase from a month earlier compares with a 3.8 percent median rise forecast and with a 0.6 percent gain in March. From a year earlier, production rose 8.5 percent, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo.


- Japanese household spending had its biggest gain on record in April as the economy added the most jobs this year, a sign that consumers will help the nation achieve its longest run of growth in seven years. Spending by salaried workers' households rose a seasonally adjusted 9.3 percent, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo. The economy added 240,000 jobs and the jobless rate stayed at a three- year low of 4.7 percent as the labor force expanded. Industrial production rose 3.3 percent, a separate report said. Consumer spending has taken over from exports as the driver of an expansion extending into a ninth quarter, the longest since 1997.


- Crude oil futures in New York fell for a fourth day after OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said yesterday the oil exporters group may agree to raise production quotas ``significantly'' next week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps a third of the world's oil, may boost its output target by more than 2 million barrels a day from 23.5 million barrels, when it meets in Beirut on June 3, Purnomo said yesterday. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is raising production and urged other OPEC members to do the same after oil consumers said high oil prices could undermine economic growth.


- Swiss economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the year's first three months, led by a drop in investments and a slowdown in exports and consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation grew 0.4 percent from the third quarter, when it expanded 0.5 percent, the Bern, Switzerland-based State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a faxed statement. Economists had expected growth of 0.6 percent, according to the median of 12 projections. The report gives the Swiss National Bank more room to keep interest rates at close to zero as Europe's eighth-largest economy struggles to gather pace after the first annual contraction in a decade in 2003.






Equity Market Summary -


Stock traders Thursday were encouraged by the upward revision to first quarter U.S. GDP and the continued moderation in oil prices. The Dow jumped 0.9%, the S&P gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Supporting the market's gains were technical factors, which included the major averages' ability to stay above their respective 200-day moving averages, which the Dow and the Nasdaq cleared in yesterday's session, as well as the S&P 500's ability to clear and the Nasdaq's ability to hold above their respective 50-day moving averages. The bulk of the sectors closed in positive territory, with the oil & gas services sector among the only laggards of note. Leaders to the upside included the internet, semiconductor, communications services, consumer, drug, steel, chemical, retail, and gold sectors.

European stocks rose Friday amid optimism the economic recovery is strong enough to weather high oil prices. Technology-related companies led gains. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 0.3 percent to 2688.92. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.5 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries using the euro, increased 0.8 percent. The benchmarks rose for the second successive session.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index will likely extend further towards 3950 - 3960. But be on the lookout still for a +test of the base+ type decline -- which may bring the index back to the 3800 - 3760 area. A recovery from there may evolve into a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index makes a new bid at 4470 and may extend gains to 4480 - 4485. Nonetheless, allow for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline thereafter, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - a move to 1130 is on the table again. From medium-term indications, we may see a pullback to 1100 - 1085 thereafter -- a +test of the base+ type of corrective action. Our earlier [projection of 1060 final decline is unlikely to happen -- the new bull market cycle may have began. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the indexmay rally further towards 1480 then do a corrective decline back to 1410 - 1400 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. The 1330 downside target won't be seen in this trading cycle and probably not until next year. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - we may yet see further upmoves to 11,400 - 11,450. But expect a +test of the base+ decline thereafter, for a retest of the 10,700 base. However, a new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the recovery may indeed extend to 12,300 - 12,500. But continue to make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11400 thereafter, a +tes of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Interesting article for you FX traders.
http://hardrightedge.com/wheel/hreforex.htm

A price drop on the US indeces should be on the cards today. What with oil price
worries etc.
Yes? No?

Well, it did drop but is now back up again.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX&d=c&k=c3&a=ss,w14,m26-12-9,r14&p=m10,m20,m50,m100&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c

Just to confuse you all further, (why should I be the only one.) :-))

Nasdaq100 seemed to put in a swing high yesterday, when it made
a lower daily high and low after 3+ up days.

Trouble is, it also put in a 'W' day, which to me shows strength,
and today it has put in a higher high.

Sigh :-(((

Melnibone.

Strewth Melnibone! There are far too many indicators on that chart.
No wonder you are confused, as am I.

I seem to like making things difficult for myself, Snoball. :-)

Seriously though, I can't find any market watcher or commentator
who is convinced he/she is right about direction at the moment.

As soon as we lose a trend, everyone just seems to mill about,
rushing from pillar to post. This is where margined players lose
money and then lose it even faster trying to 'win it back'.

Melnibone.

Which is why I'm not playing these days, Melnibone.
I'm quite happy to watch and hang on to what is left of my account for now.

Hey guys, any of you purchase US stocks or heard of a company called Parker Rowe (www.parkerrowe.com) They phoned me about 5k investment in a US stock.

I have heard something like this. I was phoned by an investment company in Austria I think (with a web site etc) offering me shares in a new American company producing products dealing in obesity - fantastic opportunity but I had to act really quickly as he could not hold the stock or his allocation for long. I think they call them 'boiler houses'. The guy suggested I moved everything out of my broker account and invest it in these 'couldnt loose' shares.

Now it would be extremely presumtious of me to advise anyone how to invest their money so I won't. All I will say is that they were using some very 'hard sell' techniques - like me agreeing that I would be a fool not to invest, and he was very persistent - ringing every day. In the end I wrote a very assertvie (perhaps even agressive) e-mail to him saying how it was a complete waste of time phoning me as I would never do it and I have not heard from him since.

I might be completely wrong and your opportunity be completely genuine.
Just be careful with your hard earned cash and good luck!!

Leave it well alone would be my advice.

Why in the world would anyone want to cold call loads of
the 'Little Guys' if they had a genuine money making opportunity.

Have I fell into an alternate reality where the world is full
of American philanthropists queuing up to throw money at me?

When anybody contacts you about buying something from them it
will, without exception IMHO, be them that is trying to make money
from You, not the other way around.

Melnibone.

Yep - have also asked the question on the other board with pretty much the same response. The description from JonP is almost identical but a little slicker, high pressure, could not get him off the phone, tried to slip in that I would agree in principal to lead the way. Even when I said no he started on about the chance the price might go up. Did give a number to phone back asked him where he was based he said Bearcelona, funny the number code was London. Might be legit but would not take the chance and has been pointed out this stock would have to be resold, is over the counter so might not be liquid. Yukk not interested.

Thanks for the thoughts and have a good week on the DOW