After researching this company this week and giving it some thought I have decided to start a new thread with a header that perhaps more accurately reflects where this company is at present.
Hardman has interests in production at its Chinguetti field, offshore Mauritania, where it is currently producing a net 7,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd). This is set to increase as more wells are drilled towards in Q4 2006 and into 2007.
The exploration portfolio is also very strong, with numerous fields being tested over the next eighteen months (see below for more details).
The share price has taken a bit of a battering in the last few months, in common with many E&P stocks, but could in my view be ripe for a turnaround (further explanation follows).

I have done my best to evaluate HNR's prospects.
I was helped by info from the Report to Shareholders for the Quarter Ended 30 June 2006 - see Hardman's website www.hdr.au.com for details
Current Chinguetti production of 37,000 bopd (7,030 net to HNR) and 6,000 from recently-tested Waraga could together justify a market cap of 407 mil using an oil price of $64 as in the last quarter, profit ratio 17% of turnover, P/E 15.
HNR also had 57 mil of net cash at quarter end after debt is taken into account.
Add the cash figure to production-related capitalisation and you have a co with a justifiable market cap of 464 mil, or 63.8p a share. Current SP is 59 / 61.5.
Basically the SP dropped earlier in the year due to the uncertainty over Chinguetti's production figures, caused by unexpectedly low well pressures. The field was supposed to produce 75,000 bopd and is now only producing half of that. Remedial drilling is due to be carried out to create another three wells which should generate another 30,000 bopd total (5,700 net to HNR).
It would seem that the Ching problems have been pretty much priced in now and that the market is looking to further good news from continued drilling.
On my modelling of the situation you basically get all of HNR's other prospects for free. Juicy ones include the potential for a number of 1-billion-barrel-plus discoveries offshore Guyane, which I have been following through my interest in Northern Petroleum (NOP). However, it may be a while before a number of these are drill-ready, plus of course they do have to find commercial hydrocarbons.
To my mind the portfolio seems broad enough to offer a real chance of some big successes.
The SP may jump if Mputa-1 is successful. There is also the possibility of a net 900 bcf of gas at Flamant-1, which spuds shortly.
With lots more drilling promised into 2007, the programme looks to be capable of producing a lot of good news.
Having been bearish on this stock before, I'm now beginning to like the look of what I'm seeing. The current SP is a test of the 59p level hit in mid-June and also December 2005.
DRILLING TIMETABLE.
I have attempted to put together a drilling calendar. It's probably a bit rough and ready, but here goes:
NB No liability will be accepted for the content or accuracy of this list as drilling schedules, etc, may be subject to all kinds of changes. Please refer to Hardman's website and/or news releases for confirmation.
Current (Aug 2006) Drilling Mputa-1, Uganda. Possible net potential 6,000 bopd similar to Waraga-1? Operator: HNR
Current (Aug-Sep 2006) Drilling Flamant-1, Mauritania. Net 900 bcf gas. Operator: Dana
Q4 2006 Chinguetti EDIT: Drilling 1 additional well, Mauritania. Net 1,900 bopd Oil. Op: Woodside
Q4 2006/Q1 2007 Drilling Aigrette-1, Mauritania. Net 16.2% primarily gas. Operator: Dana
H2 2006 Tevet, Labeidna and Banda (estimated net 500 bcf Gas) discoveries, Mauritania, to be evaluated as tie-backs to the Chinguetti facilities. Tevet fast-tracked for development decisions by end 2006. HNR net interest 21.6% or 24.3%, Op: Woodside
Q4 2006/more likely Q1 2007 onwards, Suriname onshore 25-well programme, HNR net interest 40% in a prolific S. American oil province (adjacent fields total 1 bn bbl oil in place, producing 13,000 bopd). Op: Staatsolie
?Q1/Q2 2007 Drilling Kibaro-1, Mauritania. Net 31.5 mmbl oil. Op: Woodside
Q2 2007 onwards. Chinguetti, Mauritania. Up to 4 additional producing wells, plus two injectors to be drilled. Net 7,600 bopd Oil, possibly. Op: Woodside
Proposed 2007, Guyane, drilling various prospects 1 bn bbl oil or more (6 targets according to NOP), HNR net interest currently 97.5% but likely to be reduced on formation of JV. Op: HNR
H1 2007. Tiof, Mauritania. Net interest 21.6% Op: Woodside. Decision due on investment in Tiof. First oil possibly due in Q3 2009, possible initial 10,000 bopd net to HNR.
Late 2007 - Tanzania: Maturation of seismic prospects to drillable status. Net interest 50% Op: HNR
2008 at the earliest: Falklands, drilling. Net 22.5% Op: FOGL
Comments on errors or admissions are welcome. This summary does not include a range of seismic prospects and other potential leads for which dates have not been finalised, many of them in Mauritania.
The potential for the Falklands prospect is huge and I acknowledge Xmortal for having drawn attention to this on his thread of July 2004, however I feel that there is a lot more strength in the portfolio as listed above which will provide both cashflow and a significant lift in the SP long before the Falklands prospects become a reality.
Counting on my fingers (!), there are between now and the end of 2007,something like 13 drilling and/or production instances.
Considering that many of these prospects could add 10p per share in NAV, even if only a few are succesful (and we know that many are dead certs, e.g. Ching and some of the other Mauritanian prospects), one could easily see 1 a share on the basis of a couple of good new discoveries. Something like Flamant-1 could add 20p per share NAV by itself if estimates of recoverable gas are proved correct.
Note: EDIT: We are awaiting a review of reserves for Chinguetti due to the production issues metnioned above. This could halve the previous estimates and accounts for much of theSP wekaness at present.
All in all, I consider that Hardman is getting to the stage where it could be due a turnaround in its SP performance, and where forthcoming exploration and production lend the company an air of credibility as a potential multi-bagger with interests in billions of barrels of oil. EDIT: this may take slightly longer than previously anticipated as the run of disappointing news at Chinguetti is stretching the timetable.
As always, please DYOR, all IMO.