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BTG - TO BE OR NOT TO BE (BGC)     

cpeck12 - 06 Jan 2004 00:32

As most of us already know that the preliminary results of a pivotal European Phase III trial of the BTG's greatest star VARISOLVE were positive.

- Overall response rate in patients (435 patients) treated with VARISOLVE was 83.4%, in line with expectations.
- Established that VARISOLVE is similar in efficacy to conventional treatments (sclerotherapy or surgery) in the treatment of moderate to severe varicose veins.
- The winning factor is that both physicians and patients would welcome this rapid, virtually painless, treatment for varicose veins.

But, the Varisolve US Phase II safety study has been put on clinical hold by FDA, continue to worry investors for about a month now since its announcement. Consequently shares oversold till today. This could be long enough and is an investment opportunity worth monitoring. Any spark of hope could easily double the share price. Base on the assumption that Varisolve may not survive the trails despite additional costs and efforts to do additional tests to accumulate enough proves and statistics or to improve their procedures, which is unlikely although sources suggest that the clinical Hold is more likely to cause a delay of 1-2 years to its commercialisation date, the net current asset value of the company alone is estimated to be around 190 – 250 (consensus from various analyst), excluding any contribution from Varisolve US and Europe. Note that BTG total revenues increased by 35% to 19.1 million (2002: 14.2 million). Investors will bet on the company’s ability to generate enough cash to carry Varisolve through till its commercialisation, which is estimated to be 2005/6/7 in EU and 2007/8/9 US. With institutional investments from Deutsche Bank AG (More than 11%), Amvescap PLC (More than 26%), Bank of New York Europe Limited and many more…, the risk may still remain significant, but definitely one to keep close to your screen. Remember that they have many more high potential projects on parallel development. Opportunity like this don't come often.

Investors are expecting BTG to clarified their strategy and plan to overcome their challenges associated with Varisolve by early 2004. The next important date will be in early February 2004 which may be an opportunity for them to inspire some confidence (2nd Annual BioPartnering North America).

My opinion : Now is the time to get in!!!

azhar - 30 Jan 2004 14:14 - 19 of 57

I was in at 1.56

cpeck12 - 02 Feb 2004 10:45 - 20 of 57

Price now 159.25.

cpeck12 - 02 Feb 2004 12:14 - 21 of 57

160 now

cpeck12 - 02 Feb 2004 12:34 - 22 of 57

160.75 now

cpeck12 - 02 Feb 2004 12:42 - 23 of 57

162 now

azhar - 10 Feb 2004 08:48 - 24 of 57

Dropping like mad, surely it worth more than 1.35 p/s. Have missed anything news etc..

bignose - 10 Feb 2004 12:14 - 25 of 57

Still plummetting. There must be something out there that I don't know? Doesn't seem to be anything on the news updates though - anybody any ideas?

highinterest - 10 Feb 2004 13:16 - 26 of 57

there is no news bignose - investor relations told me yesterday that an announcemnet made very soon and will cover all outstanding issues. This share is seriously undervalued and even if it falls more it will be an opportunity to top up. hsbc estimates value without varisolve at 2oop adn 70p for europe varisolve. What is happening is that we have fallen below the trend line and a lot of small peeps have panicked, but I suspect it was the ones who bought on black friday at 150p.
I am still buying this but i am very long term holder. happy to sit for ten years if necessary.

hangon - 10 Feb 2004 15:28 - 27 of 57

The trouble with BTG (bgc) is that Management has been quietly snoozing, or should that be snoozing quietly?
They have a vast number of Patents and staff looking after them, yet days, weeks, months and years(?) go by without any churning over of progress reports etc.
If we take Varisolve out of the picture their next "bigie" is probably that rf tagging technology - aimed at anti-counterfeiting goods and distribution in wharehouses ( etc.) - this technology looks to be the next big thing for commerce, now that they've got as many CCTV as needed - even in the lifts!
Yet BAA still finds it difficult to stop van-loads of gold (cash?) leaving Heathrow Airport, whilst we the paying public have to queue-up and have our nailfiles removed in case we are terrorists. Clearly there is a need for better Airport security ( for Need read "essential need") as it apears to be open-season on airplanes and hangers etc.
Is it not possible that this RF tagging scheme could be used to identify persons allowed onto the Airport site?.I suggest badges are in two parts one that is retained for identification "off-site" and another that matches it when on-site (issued at any guarded entrance) tus as the worker moves through the site two signals will be present: 1)their personal tag and 2) their daily permit - the computer "instantly" checks the personal and permits and so should be able to "know" that at the point of entry the Authorised person was present.
Monitoring on site should show up any "unusual " movements/journeys etc.

Yet BTG remains silent on this rf technology - quieter than on the next chapter of Varisolve - but don't hold your breath - it's not going to be good news - we know it's delayed - it's a battle-scarred tortoise that's crawled onto a mine - the question is: when it crawls off, will the explosion push it further forward or will it become a terminal case?

I'm a holder of BTG from lower prices, shortly to be re-visited I suspect, oh dear.

bignose - 10 Feb 2004 16:43 - 28 of 57

Highinterest - you sound like a believer! I'm in between thinking it is too good an opportunity to miss at this level and thinking it could go a lot lower (as hangon said).

I've been watching them for ages and I've seen them a lot lower, they just don't have the confidence of the market. They seem to have plenty of interesting possibilities and theoretically the sky is the limit but the ongoing lack of profits, it still feels very 'internet boom - like' - no visible means of support. Am I being unduly pessimistic?

apple - 10 Feb 2004 16:48 - 29 of 57

It needs to fall some more before I am tempted.

highinterest - 11 Feb 2004 14:35 - 30 of 57

i've heard that the european regulators want the same tests as the fda and this will delay launch by two years. we're all queered if it's true. 70p here we come!

apple - 11 Feb 2004 16:00 - 31 of 57

The shorters are loving this 1

Janus - 12 Feb 2004 07:44 - 32 of 57

Well highinterest was right in a way about 70p

RNS Number:3180V
BTG PLC
12 February 2004


12 February 2004

For immediate release

This announcement is not for release, distribution or publication, directly or
indirectly, in whole or in part, in or into the United States, Australia,Canada
or Japan. This announcement is not an offer of securities for sale or a
solicitation of an offer to purchase securities in the United States. The shares in BTG plc (the Shares) and the rights to subscribe for the Shares (the Rights)may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities Act), or pursuant to an exemption from registration. Neither the Rights nor the Shares have been, nor will be, registered under the Securities Act. Accordingly, subject to certain exceptions, none of the Shares or the Rights may be offered, sold, resold, delivered, taken up, transferred or
renounced, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States or, in or into
any other jurisdiction outside the United Kingdom. Any offer of the Rights or
the Shares will be made solely by means of the prospectus published in
connection with the offering. There will be no public offering of securities
into the United States.

12 February 2004


BTG plc ("BTG")

PROPOSED 2 FOR 5 RIGHTS ISSUE OF UP TO 42,165,208 RIGHTS ISSUE SHARES AT 70
PENCE PER SHARE

PROPOSED PROGRAMME FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF VARISOLVE(R)

BTG plc, the international technology commercialisation company, provides an
update on its plans for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provensis, in developing
its Varisolve(R) product, and announces that it intends to raise approximately
#26.7 million, net of expenses, by way of a 2 for 5 rights issue of up to
42,165,208 new ordinary shares at a price of 70 pence per share.

The funds will be applied in supporting Provensis to further in develop
Varisolve(R), an innovative product for the treatment of varicose veins. The
funds are intended to support Provensis until March 2005 to achieve the
following:

* progress clinical and regulatory development (#5.2 million)

* progress manufacturing and product development (#13.8 million)

* maintain Provensis' operations (#7.7million)

The Directors have set a financial objective for BTG to become profitable
(excluding Provensis) in the financial year ending March 2006; the Directors
believe that BTG's current resources should be sufficient to fund BTG's business (excluding Provensis) until that time.




bignose - 12 Feb 2004 11:02 - 33 of 57

Blimey, Seen them today? +20% and still going.. So I was wrong!

apple - 12 Feb 2004 13:14 - 34 of 57

Temporary rise IMHO

Take profits.

azhar - 13 Feb 2004 09:39 - 35 of 57

I recon it will go back to 1.60s again and stablise

azhar - 27 Feb 2004 12:10 - 36 of 57

Torotrak PLC
27 February 2004

Torotrak plc

Notification of interest in shares




On 26 February the company was informed that the holding of BTG plc in Torotrak
plc has fallen below 3%. Consequently BTG plc no longer has a disclosable
interest in the ordinary share capital of the company.

azhar - 02 Mar 2004 08:17 - 37 of 57

Has the price dropped because of the rights issue? Anyone

azhar - 15 Mar 2004 15:14 - 38 of 57

More than 10% down today, why?
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