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Traders Thread Monday 12th July 2004 (CROC)     

Martini - 11 Jul 2004 12:40

Melnibone - 12 Jul 2004 10:43 - 19 of 40

graph.php?startDate=12%2F07%2F01&period=

THUS is coming down nicely. I can see this testing the 15p support
that was the level in March 2002 after the demerger by Scottish power.

15p was the level that CSFB placed loads of shares with institutions
that initially gave a price floor prior to the slide to 5p.

Margins are getting squeezed in this industry, at the moment, and with
the US ex Chapter 11 telecoms coming back into the fray, I can see even
more pricing pressure.

Be wary of CTM, as well, these alternates were priced for growth, and
without growth, the growth premium will be removed from the share price.
CTM has a lot of bond debt, as well, that it will need to service.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 12 Jul 2004 10:52 - 20 of 40

Up to you of course Melnibone - but there's a lot of wisdom
in what you say that I'm sure others would find interesting.

Big Al - 12 Jul 2004 10:59 - 21 of 40

Melnibone - I only have 2 years CFD, 3-4 years spreadbetting and about 7 years investing. That isn't much more than you.

You can either be right or wrong and the market makes fools of all of us, especially those fund managers - completely useless bunch losing everyone else's money whilst taking fat fees.

Am currently waiting for Friday to see how much I cocked it up! ;-)))))

sw - we've not seen why PLR had a good burst late Friday yet. I'm intrigued.

Went long MER at 173p earlier and now an RNS has landed handily. ;-))

seawallwalker - 12 Jul 2004 11:05 - 22 of 40

Yes it was a good burst, can not understand why it has now stalled a little.

It definelty bounced on support, but the indicators are that it should further up than that.

Wait and see job for me.

acw - 12 Jul 2004 11:30 - 23 of 40

which way you people are playing AZN?

Melnibone - 12 Jul 2004 11:40 - 24 of 40

graph.php?startDate=12%2F07%2F02&period=

IMHO, if AZN doesn't get back above 2400, then it will test 2200.

Sounds a lot, I know, but think percentages rather than price and
move the decimal point one to the left.

You are now talking about 220p and 240p. Not such a lot now, is it?

Melnibone.

Big Al - 12 Jul 2004 11:52 - 25 of 40

2 trades FTC short at 180p and 178p

acw - 12 Jul 2004 12:08 - 26 of 40

melnibone-sounds logical. I am short from 25.36 and 24.81.

seawallwalker - 12 Jul 2004 12:43 - 27 of 40

WHT moving ever up.

Wish I had caught that bus, but it does not go to the area I normally go to.

Just watching Al!

little woman - 12 Jul 2004 12:46 - 28 of 40

SOR is up 10p?

Golddog - 12 Jul 2004 13:26 - 29 of 40

all you guys and girls are welcome to join in my new team investment game (see the game thread), just state which team you would like to join or even start your own team. everyone welcome to play along for a bit of fun.
:-)

Big Al - 12 Jul 2004 14:06 - 30 of 40

sw - re WHT.

RNS on Friday said Mann finally loobed all his holdings, hence nudged up and I bailed. He sold the last tranche at 220p so someone made a killing.

JKX motoring now.

Melnibone - 12 Jul 2004 15:06 - 31 of 40

graph.php?enableMACD=true&epic=LLOY

It's a bit loose, but there's a possible bearish head and shoulders
in LLOY.

We're playing with the neckline just above the 400p support at the moment.

Folk say that you need to be wary in buying Banking stocks in a rising
interest rate environment.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 12 Jul 2004 15:29 - 32 of 40

They are probably right..but it's been hard resisting buying more LLOY
since they dropped back and a further drop (below 400p) would be too
much temptation to resist!

What a bizarre day! Among those stocks I am watching currently, my only
upward movers right at this minute are this strange non-related bunch:
In top spot - a tiny builder, followed by a FTSE100 miner, followed by
a sub-prime lender, followed by a media co...very strange mixture! (lol)

Melnibone - 12 Jul 2004 15:42 - 33 of 40

Stockbunny, folk say that the dividend cover is looking a bit thin
on LLOY.

Think what would happen if they cut the dividend?

Anyway, I'm sure that you'll wait to see if support holds
and time your entry point with impeccable aplomb.;-)

Won't you?

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 12 Jul 2004 15:57 - 34 of 40

Doubtful (lol) but I'll do the best I can at the time on timing.
If the div drops, true it would be unhelpful but with the yield as high as it is,a drop may bring it more in line with some of the others but should
(IMHO) still be worth having. That is the saving grace to me about LLOY
it is high so a drop is more likely to make it 'average' then terribly low
in comparision.
(All the above carries a wealth warning of course, it's based on bunny
logic, not the most accurate indicator around! lol)

Melnibone - 12 Jul 2004 16:01 - 35 of 40

Dow/S&P/Ndx seem to be holding around support at the moment,
around 10170/1108/1420.

I would really like to see what would happen at 10,000/1100/1400.

Melnibone.

Big Al - 12 Jul 2004 16:06 - 36 of 40

Melnibone - I'd not have many longs on the go for sure.

;-))

seawallwalker - 12 Jul 2004 16:41 - 37 of 40

Nothing moved much this afternoon, and I have just noticed the market is closed.

Funny I could not tell the difference.

Have a good evening all

sw

Big Al - 12 Jul 2004 16:46 - 38 of 40

Pretty flat day for me. A few up and a few down. Took on MER long and FTC short, both looking OK at the close.

Take the rest of the day off folks.
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