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2004 Goldfinger Stock Picks Thread (GOLD)     

goldfinger - 04 Jan 2004 00:32

Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.




bishopjeremy - 22 Feb 2004 12:53 - 190 of 304

Armour Group are the featured Stockwatch share in Saturday's Times."well placed to take advantage of the ban on using mobile phones while driving....the shares have been rising steadily since June of last year, when it put out a trading statement predicting takings well ahead of expectations". Good bit of coverage for a good share.

goldfinger - 23 Feb 2004 16:17 - 191 of 304

Not been a good day for the small caps guys, tuesday should be better.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 24 Feb 2004 23:30 - 192 of 304

Well how wrong could I get it another rotten day but dont feel theres any need to panic.

Heres just a couple of Pro thoughts on the present situation, firstly from brokers Killik who didnt get this out until lunchtime............

The NASDAQ suffered another pull back last night, worth around 1.5%. The
retrenchment from the highs is now worth around 10% but follows a virtual doubling
over the past year. Arguably, many of the leading index players have got in front of
themselves on valuation grounds until further evidence can be attached to the strength
of the pick up in corporate information technology spend. Some profit taking at this
juncture seems only appropriate.
But the bigger story appears to be some rolling over of US indices which have set the
pace over the past few months – can Europe decouple and tread its own path?
Yesterday, good corporate data and takeover speculation kept the markets in positive
territory although, by the end, these were being trimmed. This morning’s results are
showing the effects of the dollar on UK profitability, disguising generally good
underlying figures.

And from The Frequenttrader Robbie Burns....

A bit of a down day for small cap stocks today though seems like markdowns rather than any real selling. Bovis Homes has now shot higher and is giving me some nice spread bet profits.

The US indicies werent at all that bad at the close and in after hours, and I really do feel that we are probably at the base of the recent down turn.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Feb 2004 23:44 - 193 of 304

Just hoping in the week to come we have seen the back of the US pull back, on friday we saw the Naz drop for the 6 th week in a row.

Anyway my shopping trip on weds and thurs is already starting to pay dividends.

The only minus are gold stocks that seem to be taking a breather, but still feel they will be a lot higher come September than what they are now.

cheers Gf.

moneyplus - 01 Mar 2004 14:49 - 194 of 304

AFE has gone backwards since I bought it---anyone got any comments to cheer me up?

goldfinger - 01 Mar 2004 14:58 - 195 of 304

Hi moneyplus , looks like all gold stocks are taking a big breather. Please remember by their nature explorers are always going to be lonfg term investments. having said that we may get a farm out deal with a big north American major before the end of the month, fingers crossed.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 01 Mar 2004 16:31 - 196 of 304

Just opened a new position In Sanctuary Group SGP, I think this article fron Citywire best somes up my reasons but I have been searching for value for about a week now and this one comes out way at the top for me.

Stick takes Sanctuary

Published: 11:10 Sun 29 Feb 2004

By Richard Lander, Editorial Director
Email to a friend

Sanctuary's recent results suggested management stand a good chance of making a success of its planned acquisition spree and one shrewd investor has backed the strategy with share purchases.

Rathbone's star manager Carl Stick picked up 200,000 shares in the expansive music group shortly after its full year results in which it told investors it foresaw a short period of 'unprecedented' acquisition opportunities.

Stick's Rathbone Special Situations Rathbone Special Situations unit trust now owns 2 million shares or 0.6% of the 174 million group (SGP).


Sanctuary has already proved itself adept at buying up the rights to catalogues of music and juicing value out of the assets.


The company began life as the management company for British heavy metallers Iron Maiden. However, it has built itself into an industry powerhouse buy both buy music rights as well as offering a home to disaffected musicians.


The company has built a 30 million war chest to fund acquisitions through the issue of issuing loan notes last September.


It recently picked up reggae label Creole records and it has three to four other acquisitions in its sights.


Sanctuary's existing business has been enjoying some noteworthy successes and recently achieved its first ever UK number one single.


It has also recently set up an urban music arm with the acquisition of Music World Entertainment which manages big name artists including Beyoncand Kelly Rowland's.


At the current price of 52.5p the shares are valued at 12.4 times earnings forecast for the year to the end of September and 11.2 times expectations for the year after.

The shares look attractive at this level especially if management have got it right about acquisition opportunities.ENDS.

Looks a good one to me , been searching for value for about a week now and this easily comes out on top. Well worth a punt I think, but please DYOR and remember you are responsible for the timing of buying and selling of shares.

cheers GF.



goldfinger - 02 Mar 2004 10:36 - 197 of 304

Opened a new position in CMS WEBVIEW CWV. The article below describes why I have opened the position. Havent seen Joanne Wallen so keen for a long time.

Citywire Tip: exchange is no robbery at CMS Webview
Published: 07:24 Tue 2 March 2004
By Joanne Wallen, Associate Editor
Email to a friend | Printable Version


CMS Webview is a rare breed of company these days, it is a tech company valued currently at 9 million but which should be poised for bigger things and which has attracted an AAA-rated fund manager into its recent placing.

The company originally spun out of the Liffe commodities exchange in 1982 and, following a management buyout in 1997 floated on AIM in 2000.


Unlike so many dotcom companies, CMS Webview (CWV) raised only 2.5 million, which enabled it to fulfil its initial vision of developing software to collect data from multiple feeds, aggregate it, put it into a common format and send it out in real time to end users.


Due to its heritage, the initial targets for this software were commodities exchanges, and, one of the key reasons that the company was able to go back to the market in December and raise a further 2.5 million, was the fact that it now counts the London Metals Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade as customers.


That a twenty-man band from London won the business of two of the major exchanges in Chicago clearly speaks for the quality of the software and the industry experience of the team.


One shrewd investor who thought it worth taking a stake at the recent placing was AAA-rated Giles Hargreave, who picked up 1.9 million shares for his Marlborough Special Situations fund. The placing of 25 million shares was at 10p, and shares are currently around 12p, valuing the business at just under 10 million.


Having bedded down these three major exchange customers, CMS is now ready to ramp up its sales effort. To date it has been doing what chief executive Bob Antell calls 'serial' selling, essentially selling one system a year.


However, now that the software is installed and proven in these three major customers, the company is ready to gear up its sales efforts to increase the volume of sales to several a year. It will fund this out of the new money raised.


There are some 200 exchanges in the world, of which 120 are potential targets for CMS' software, known as TDI. The company started selling to exchanges because this is its direct area of expertise. However it is also looking to target the banks, brokerages and quote vendors that are members of the exchanges.


Sales of the software are large ticket items, with an average sale price of around 750,000 for an exchange.


However the software is pretty generic, and, further down the line CMS will explore other vertical markets for the software such as betting, airline ticketing or any other service that takes in data from many sources and requires real time information out. It intends to exploit other markets through partnerships with vertical market specialists. However Antell stressed that this was for further down the line. (continued...)

The company also has two other revenue streams. It uses TDI itself to offer a consolidated digital data feed service to customers such as quote terminal vendors, banks and brokers. CMS has a fully equipped data communications suite in East London, from which, using TDI software, it can collate data from many sources on behalf of its customers and push that data out to them as a single, consolidated feed in real time. So far it has 11 quote terminal vendors as customers, and has not yet gone out to sell to the banks.


Finally, CMS has the exclusive European distribution rights to a data terminal called ProphetX, which competes with the likes of Reuters providing data on the commodities and energy markets. To date the company has twenty corporate customers, some of which take ProphetX as a backup to an existing system and others which have replaced existing, and usually more expensive systems.


Terminals sell for around 200 a month, and Antell says the business is profitable and generates cash. Digital data feed customers pay around 20-25,000 a year.


At present, TDI is the biggest part of the business, but Antell can foresee a time when CMS could have three separate business divisions, each making a major contribution.


In the six months to June, the company turned over 905,000, up 55% on the previous year Losses were reduced by 66% to 116,000.


House broker Corporate Synergy reckons the company is 'set for rapid growth and profits in 2004/5. It is looking for turnover of 3.6 million, profits of 300,000 and earnings per share of 0.3p this year rising to 6.4 million of turnover, 2.4 million of profit and 3p per share next year. The broker has a target price of 18p for the shares.


Full year results are due next month.


Citywire Verdict:


A tiny company with such blue chip customers is a rare find. CMS has survived the horrendous market conditions since it floated, and really does now look poised for bigger and better things.


It has proven software in at three highly impressive reference sites and is opening offices in Chicago to exploit the strong references in that city. (continued...)

There are then two other viable sources of revenue which should help smooth out the lumps from selling high value software licences.


At this price shares are trading on just 4 times next year's forecast earnings. Even allowing for some slippage in revenues, this share looks just about as cheap as they get at this time.


Yes it is a tech stock, yes there are still risks, but there could easily be some serious upside here. Buy.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 02 Mar 2004 11:53 - 198 of 304

Pretty poor day so far for small caps but never mind CWV is doing just fine. Added twice again this morning as I see these as really fantastic value with a forward p/e of 4.

cheers Gf.

Grandma - 02 Mar 2004 22:22 - 199 of 304

Gf did you notice that Bond Int.(BDI) put out results & news of an aquisition lateish yesterday? They were optimistic but seemed to get lost on a busy day. They could be worth a look. I rang them up today & they were also surprised at the lack of interest. (50.5p no change)

scotinvestor - 02 Mar 2004 22:52 - 200 of 304

Noticed u sold avocet goldfinger. I'm still holding onto them. Do you have any reasons for selling?
Some of your tips at start of year have been really bad, avocet (like me), bema gold, incite and zoo. i aint looked at some of the others but i have tracked gold shares a lot in last 6 months. Must admit, these have been rubbish for me too. Small caps mainly though shares that i've invested in elsewhwere have have been excellent though to make including pipex.

goldfinger - 03 Mar 2004 11:53 - 201 of 304

Hi Scotinvestor nice to speak to you again, yup golds gone right off the radar.

Reason I sold AVM was that I bought the last tranche at 71p and we have seen it really fall with others, dont forget the EC will probably cut interest rates tomorrow or is it the day after and that will certainly make the dollar a stronger buy for currency merchants. Im still going to hold Bema whatever happens as I think this will be a giant in 10 years time.

good luck, and please keep in touch.

cheers gf.

1982roy - 03 Mar 2004 12:03 - 202 of 304

gf what are your thoughts on african eagle,short term and longterm

goldfinger - 04 Mar 2004 10:44 - 203 of 304

Positive roy, very positive. Ok we have seen it fall back a little over the last couple of weeks but in the long term it is still possible I hear that Goldfields may re -open talks with the company, failing that there are at least two other companies who are interested in forming a partnership.

I also feel that POG will again rise to new highs going on for early summer, when the bout of uk and EEC interest rate increases have stabalised.

cheers GF.



1982roy - 04 Mar 2004 11:02 - 204 of 304

1982roy - 04 Mar 2004 11:03 - 205 of 304

thanks gf

tshires - 04 Mar 2004 13:43 - 206 of 304

gf what are your thoughts on ivs,seems to be a lot of action going on today,results due on 10th march.

goldfinger - 05 Mar 2004 12:35 - 207 of 304

A really quite morning obviously people areawaiting the employment data news fronm the US due out at I believe 1pm here.

cheers GF.

tshires, no present position on ivs although I have heard some good news on D Smith re- to aquisition. Now might be the time to get into paper before the herd. Think Evil K is doing just that.

vasey - 05 Mar 2004 13:18 - 208 of 304

Text from IC:

Like rival Armour Trust, Centurion is booming, thanks to the craze for in-car DVD players, which keep kids and in-laws entertained during car journeys. But the company's spectacular 2002-03 results and this year's bumper expectations have been clouded by the sudden death in late January of founder, chairman, chief executive and 46 per cent shareholder Steven Cunningham, aged 36, in a road crash.

Up until now, some 80 per cent of Centurion's turnover has come from its 'Plug & Play' boxed kits, which have velcrose or suction-backed screens. In the 12 months to end-July 2003, the number of in-car vision units sold via retail outlets such as Halfords, Argos and over 400 car dealerships, almost doubled. Since September, Centurion has introduced a cheaper Plug & Play product and a thin roof-mounted screen. So, not surprisingly, motor manufacturers are now starting to fit DVD screens as optional extras.

By far the most significant customer to date for such products is Toyota, which signed a pan-European deal that could see in-car vision units fitted in eight new models over the next three years. The first contract for the Toyota Avensis consists of a twin-screen system (with screens in both headrests), a DVD player in the car boot and games-compatible sockets for a PlayStation.

Last April, Centurion signed a contract to supply the 2003 Nissan Micra with an in-car DVD system available via its 229 UK dealerships. Similar agreements have been signed with Mazda, Kia and Fiat. Not surprisingly, Centurion believes that original equipment sales could rise from 20 to 30 per cent this year. As a result, its share price has been climbing.

Company broker Charles Stanley reckons that turnover this year will more than double to 12.92m as profits jump to 2.08m and earnings to 6.3p. A dividend of 1.1p is also forecast.

draw?startDate=05%2F03%2F04&period=1D&ep

ajren - 05 Mar 2004 13:32 - 209 of 304

Gold will go up when terrorism increases -- and it will increase.
rgds aj
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