nordcaperen -

re - When you talk in 2p here and 3p there falls, it doesnt sound much but realistically its down 15% - 20 % over the last few days

I am not sure how you do with shares but MATHS is not your strenth.
Last week it went UP from 64 to 72.60p in 3 days = to 13.43% (8.60p :64p= 13.43%)
An since yesterday it has retrace to 66.50p this morning, this means -6.10p in 2 days = to 8.40% ( 72.60p - 66.50p = 6.10p :66.50 =8.40%)

RESUME
UP ...... 13.43%
DOWN ... 8.40%

It was actually 76p the figure I was working from, so forgive me its gone done 18% in the last two weeks, Also there are 20% more buys than sells today - and its still falling like a brick. Its not the stock, its sentiment, the point I'm trying to make was that Banking Shares are too volatile to trade presently. There is no 'good news' out there at the minute and I cant see none coming for quite some time in this sector - safer places for your money. I'll take a punt on Barc. @ below 2, Lloyds around 50p and Rbs at below 30p - I dont mean shorting (think its unethical). But there the prices I'd be looking at to buy in at. I mentioned before, when I traded these stocks Lloyds worked out double the share price of RBS , and Barc. traded at treble the Lloyds price. Formula worked quite well for some time, gone to pot now though - thats why I'm leaving well alone. When its gets back to same levels, I'll start dabbling again.

Read quite a few of your posts and must say I am impressed with the chart work - not something I use, but does make interesting reading - especially when you explain how it works.

Keep up the good work - and let me know when you think its turned !!

Oh, and your thoughts on Hyleo are 100% correct - Now theres one Math i've got correct

Regards Nord.

re - Oh, and your thoughts on Hyleo are 100% correct

Glad WE got something right


re - I'll take a punt on Barc. @ below 2, Lloyds around 50p and Rbs at below 30p
re - Formula worked quite well for some time, gone to pot now though

Maybe the reason is a couple things have change since:
LLOY has made a 1 for 40 capital... meaning more shares on the market, and also the large Placing 0.6213 for 1 share held at a large discount 38.43p

edit - I am very sorry but even at 76p, I can not work out your 18%

re -Keep up the good work - and let me know when you think its turned !!

The shares wil be just about the market till the result of the take up is released.

The share will be motoring on news that the economy is recovering, but mainly the house prices are recovering.

hyleo has disappeared, lol. maybe he's at school.

i agree nord about shorting being unethical.....if banks go, then no businesses and no jobs.....actually no bank accouns either so people with money would lose no matter what any gov says.

so hyleo makes a billion but he cant stand spend it shopping or buying food etc as no shops.....oh dear he'll starve to death

In the Long term - i think there an excellent buy (Banks) they're the hub of everything but until sentiment returns I'm staying out. When is the take up released, was it 10th june ??

Expected time and date of admission and commencement of dealing is tuesday 9 June, most likely will be mush at the same time.
The offer closes at 12 pm Friday 5 june

Threre was a POSITIVE report at the TELEGRAPH a couple days ago .......

Record jump for housing construction
There was fresh evidence on Tuesday that the UK housing market has turned a corner.

By Angela Monaghan
Published: 7:20PM BST 02 Jun 2009

Data showed residential construction almost stopped declining in May and business expectations in the sector were the highest since August 2007.

Housing activity on the well-respected construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped by a record 14.8 points to 48.5 in May, from 33.7 in April. Although anything below 50 indicates a contraction, it was the highest level on the housing measure since November 2007 which was the last month before the sector started shrinking.

UK manufacturing sector decline could be over by autumn, PMI shows
Export orders drive improvement in UK manufacturing sectorIt was also the first time since June 2007 that it registered a higher level than the commercial and civil engineering sectors, after the housing market led the construction sector into recession.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit which co-produces the PMI series, said the housing index improvement "raises the possibility of a year-on-year increase in house prices by the end of the year."

Output in the construction sector as a whole rose to 45.9 on the PMI in May, from 38.1 as the pace of decline slowed for the third month in a row. Business expectations rose to 72.6 from 56.4 - the biggest show of optimism since August 2007. "These data are a further sign that the UK economy is now past the worst of the recession, and may be moving closer to genuine growth," said Colin Ellis, economist at Daiwa Securities.

Does one wants to wait longer or is the market ready to follow the recovery trend of the
last couple month and then miss the cheap prices ........

From the TELEGRAPH

Diary of a private investor: Three reasons why it is bigger risk to be out of the market
Can the spring rally continue into summer? The FTSE 100 was crushed at a mere 3,512 on March 3. By early this week, it had risen to 4,500 a 28pc jump.

In glorious Technicolor retrospect, it seems pretty obvious that the market was likely to recover from its March low since many individual shares at the time were at Armageddon-fearing valuations.

Indeed, I did mention in this diary in early March that a company called Staffline was priced at a mere 2.5 times its prospective earnings and the shares were seriously cheap.

These shares have risen 66pc since. And that illustrates the problem. Many such shares may well still be excellent value for the medium or longer term. But you would not use the phrase seriously cheap so freely now.

So what happens next? If that was a rally from extreme cheapness, what does the market do when it is merely excellent value? Last week I got a little nervous and sold some of my shares in Enterprise Inns, a pub company.

I reckoned May was ending and summer is the season when shares tend to do badly. Add in that the market has had such a terrific run and was there not a setback risk? Was it not a good idea to have more cash in hand?

But three things now make me think the bigger risk is being out of this market. The first is a paper by economist Tim Congdon, who has just created a new consultancy International Monetary Research.

In this he argues inflation will not take off in the next two years, contrary to my previous belief. I had thought all this monetary stimulus was likely to lead to serious inflation. If this happened, it would lead to higher interest rates, which would undermine any potential bull market.

But, looking at the American economy, Congdon examines major economic setbacks and finds in six cases out of seven since the Second World War, the inflation rate two years after a trough was lower that it had been previously. That is one worry of mine calmed.

The second influence again comes from Congdon. He went on to study how the stock market in America performed in the two years following a trough in economic activity. Of course, this is not America, but a similar story can probably be told here. In every case, shares rose. ...............

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/5433916/Diary-of-a-private-investor-Three-reasons-why-it-is-bigger-risk-to-be-out-of-the-market.html

And yet more positive news for the economy ..........

UK Consumer Confidence Picks Up

U.K. consumer confidence strengthened in May, buoyed by a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook. The Nationwide Building Society, a leading mortgage lender, says its measure of consumer confidence rose to 53 in May from 51 in April. UK Service Sector Expands
The U.K. may be emerging from recession earlier than other major economies, with the dominant service sector showing expansion in May for the first time in 12 months, a research group says

Not exactly flying North on the news are they

All will come to he who wait's.... comes to mind..

Bird in the hand , shits on your wrist does too !

nordcaperen

re - Not exactly flying North on the news are they

You seem a bit impatient, those news are not related exacly to LLOY but to the market in general.

All things come to he who waits (maybe)... ( Balerboy)

From EUROPE news today, that they can see some "green shoots"

Further good news by some respected investor below............

Down fast, up fast...

Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments -- 04.06.09

Is the bear market finally over? I don't know. Since the global bottom, world shares are up 23% in sterling. UK shares are up 26%. If that's a bear market rally, it's history's biggest. The longer it runs, the greater the odds this is a bona fide bull, not a sucker's rally. But what folk really want to know is how long it takes to get back to where we were before the bear. My answer: I don't know that either.

I do know that when recovery comes, it will be steeper and faster than you expect. As I said in "V" is for recovery, bear markets bottom in a V shape - the right side about matching the speed and shape of the left, and then the market goes on to new highs. In other words, the steeper and faster the descent, the steeper and faster the climb. We just had a hugely steep descent, so get ready for a wild ride.

Bruised and bloodied investors worry the recovery will be different this time - it may take a decade or more before shares hit previous highs. Some worry they'll never see new highs in their lifetime! This is the tired "it's different this time" notion - shares can't possibly rebound from this particular crash with all its unique and huge problems - that surfaces late in every bear.

Endless headlines claim the recent surge is only a sucker's rally, making comparisons to 1929-1932 - a big crash with a partial recovery then another brutal bear and recession in 1937. They fear instead of a V we'll get an L, with stocks languishing for years (which I don't see happening and next month I'll explain why). But there was no L in the 1930s! Instead, there were several steep Vs - lots of volatility. Stocks didn't move sideways! In the first three months following the1932 bottom, shares soared 92% - you'd like 92% right now.

I hear investors say, "If shares are down 50%, it takes a 100% move to get back to where we were. If the market averages 10% a year, that takes 10 years." My response is: You're right. If the market averages 10% a year - which it does over very long periods. But that 10% includes bear markets. Bulls, by nature, give much higher average returns. Have to, to make up for the bears.
Everyone wants to say today is another 1929-1932. Well if 9 March was the bottom, and if we match the recovery between June 1932 and March 1937, global shares will hit their 2007 peak in March 2010. Fast! Suppose stocks rebound slower - just at their average bull market rate? Then US stocks hit their previous highs in May 2012. UK shares could do it faster, since they fell less.

Think about buying stocks now that you'll want to own in 2012, like these...

Sweden's Sandvik fell 70% in the bear market as the recession whacked sales of its metal-cutting, mining and construction tools as well as specialty alloys based on titanium and zirconium, used in thousands of applications like boiler tubes and flanges. This diverse vendor of industrial supplies is fully global - 50,000 employees in 130 countries. It sells at 70% of annual revenue, 7.5 times depressed earnings and 5 times what I expect for 2010 earnings.

Timken Co. supplies bearings and specialty steels to markets that scare investors - including transportation, mining and aerospace. The worriers assume that it will be killed by Chinese competition. It won't be, any more than it was put out of business 25 years ago by cheap Japanese steel. Why? First, half of what Timken does is marketing. Second, it already operates globally, in 26 countries, including an upcoming factory in Xiangtan, China supplying parts for windmills, for instance. At 30% of annual revenue, at five times my estimate of 2010 earnings and with a 4.75% dividend yield, Timken is too cheap.

Owens Corning can't get a break. This producer of fiberglass and other building products was sent into bankruptcy by asbestos lawyers. It emerged in 2006 just in time for housing to head south and the stock to tank 85% top to bottom. But it is more than holding its own in its markets. Two years from now investors will look back at 2009's valuation - 40% of revenue, 80% of book value - and shake their heads.

Olin is number three (behind Dow and PPG Industries) in the US chlor-alkali business, which means splitting brine into chlorine, caustic soda and hydrogen. Olin also makes Winchester ammunition. Industrial chemicals are a good antidote to inflation. Olin is cheap at 56% of sales and six times earnings with a 6% dividend yield. It would be better if Olin bit the bullet and sold Winchester, but you've got a buy even if it stands pat.

From Times Online -- June 5, 2009

Lloyds braces for shareholder anger at AGM -Nick Hasell and Miles Costello

Lloyds Banking Group is set to come under fire at todays annual meeting in Glasgow from investors angry at its decision to take over the troubled HBOS and to tap them for a further 4 billion to replace part of the Government's bailout package.

The bank, which is 43 per cent owned by the state, will tumble into the red this year after the acquisition of HBOS, which made losses of almost 11 billion last year after writing off bad loans.

The bank has about 2.8 million private investors who have seen the value of Lloyds shares lose more than three quarters of their value over the past 12 months.

UK Financial Investments (UKFI), manager of the Governments stake, has said that it will back all of todays resolutions.

However, a new investor group, called Lloyds Action Now, will be launched at the meeting to explore grounds for legal action by shareholders in the former Lloyds TSB against the directors of the two banks and their advisers.

The UK Shareholders' Association (UKSA), which represents the interests of small shareholders, is also sending a delegation to Lloyds' annual meeting and is likely to ask several questions from the floor of the conference hall.

Todays resolutions include a proposal to re-elect Sir Victor Blank, the chairman, who said last month that he would step down before next years annual meeting after coming under mounting criticism for his role in the HBOS deal.

The number of votes he receives will be closely watched as a measure of protest against the takeover.

Roger Lawson, a director at UKSA, told The Times that he wanted Sir Victor to step down immediately rather than sometime next year as promised last month.

Mr Lawson said that the other Lloyds directors should also be held to account for voting in favour of the HBOS acquisition

"It's always a corporate decision by the board. All the directors supported the decision and they should be held accountable," he said.

UKSA is recommending that shareholders vote against the re-election of Sir Victor, and against any of the directors standing for re-election who backed the HBOS deal.

It is also urging shareholders to veto the Lloyds remuneration report because directors' remuneration retains a strong bonus element.

Shareholders have until midday to take part a share placing that will convert the preference shares owned by the Government into ordinary shares.

If other shareholders snub the issue, UKFI could end up owning 65 per cent.

The results of the vote are expected early next week.

However, the fundraising is expected to receive support because the shares are being offered at 38.43p, a steep discount to Thursdays closing price of 67.1p.

Lloyds is putting 260 billion in toxic assets mostly from HBOS into a taxpayer-backed insurance scheme to shore up its finances.

Step-by-step coverage from Lloyds' AGM

Link to AGM

% take-up being announced 7am monday morning, RNS just out

Barc uses spare money , to buy Lloyds. that would be a Shake up.

Peston mildly positive

Far be it from me to spoil this government's quite astonishingly consistent run of bad news, but there is something mildly positive to say about taxpayers' massive investment in those bashed up banks.

On Monday, and barring an unexpected and improbable disaster, the Exchequer should see approximately 2.3bn returned of the capital it invested in Lloyds Banking Group last autumn.

Or to put it another way, we as taxpayers will get 2.3bn back. Hooray.

Now I know 2.3bn is peanuts in the context of the eyewatering 175bn the Treasury expects to borrow this year (and many economists believe the deterioration in the public finances will be even worse).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/