Anyone know if this stock is going to rocket?

Author Graham Evetts View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Sunday 22:50
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Subject: Something Special
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It has certainly been a volatile ride for the share price over the past two months but the good news is that it is still above where it started the year albeit by 0.5p.

The price moved up sharply following new year tips by the likes of Justin Urquart Stewart but profit takers moved in again when the price hit 40p and the fall in price has since been extended by the sell recommendation in the Investors Chronicle, the move by some shareholders to switch funds to Imagination Technologies and the announcement this week concerning the link between ARM and Ideaworks3D.

However, following the announcements from 3GSM this week, although it is a little disappointing that none were specific to Superscape, they have at least answered one question that was puzzling me and answered another that I did not know existed.

The point that had been puzzling me was why is the market expecting Superscape to have generated revenues of 1.5M last year, with almost all it generated in the final quarter, but is only expecting 4.5M for the whole of the current year.

The answer seems to be that this year is still mainly concerned with the operators putting the infrastructure in place, the manufacturers waiting for this to happen before releasing their new phones and the likes of Superscape and GWE developing their content and routes to market but basically having to wait on the operators and manufacturers.

With this in mind, it seems that the market currently thinks that a share price of 40p is still too high too soon. If this is the case, then fair enough but this view cannot persist for long because events are unfolding rapidly,

For me, the key announcement at 3GSM was the CEO of Vodafone effectively confirming that 3G will be global by the end of the year and, therefore, Christmas this year will be the time to buy that 3G phone. I am more inclined to the view expressed by the CEO of Nokia that the network must be in place before the new phones are made available because without the new network users will not receive a sufficiently enhanced experience to make them conclude that an upgrade to 3G was worth the money.

The question I did not know existed until the announcement concerning Ideaworks3D was this - is it possible to offer a JSR184 compliant solution that does not provide for over the air delivery?

This factor is obviously of immense importance because if the competition cannot offer OTA delivery then Superscape really does have something special to offer and I think I am correct in stating that, to date, only Superscape and HI Corporation have announced solutions that are both JSR 184 compliant and able to facilitate OTA delivery.

The reason why I consider this fact to be of immense importance is that because if I were the CEO of Vodafone with a need to increase my ARPU I can only do it if I have a solution that facilitates OTA delivery.

If I sell a subsidised phone with a game embedded to one of my customers then effectively I pay for the game but once the phone is in the hands of my customer, I would like to make it as easy as possible for him to purchase more games and for this I will need OTA delivery.

The question that all operators should be asking is not so much is your solution JSR 184 compliant but does it facilitate OTA delivery?

The importance of OTA delivery is being highlighted more and more and for those who remain sceptical about the Companys prospects, I would merely point out that if industry giants like Sony, Disney and 20th Century Fox want little old Superscape to co-publish their OTA content then this must be clear evidence that the Company has a competitive advantage.

With regard to the current share price, it was only a few months ago that institutions considered that 29.5p was fair and in business terms, Superscape has moved on considerably since then.

With the current price hovering around this level, the selling pressure from institutions must abate because it is one thing to take profits at 40p when you have been presented with a 40% gain in less than a month but quite another to short this share at your purchasing price given the spread and the fact that news flow is increasing.

Since the beginning of the year there has been some kind of announcement every week on average.

For those shareholders who have switched to Imagination Technologies, it is certainly not for me to tell them where to invest their money but it must surely be worth pondering if, at this point in time and given the respective share prices, the greater benefit is now more likely to be achieved by rebalancing portfolios in favour of Superscape.

When I posted my comments on the EGM last year, I stated that the share offer effectively removed the financial risk to Superscape and by this I meant that there is now no danger of the company running out of money before the emergence of 3G and the colossal potential of the new market for content.

The comments by the CEO of Vodafone at 3GSM now confirms this point and given that Superscape had sufficient cash for 18 months just before the recent share offer, I would imagine that this has been extended to at least two years and probably more given the recent announcement concerning the licensing of games.

Clearly, if I were the CEO of Superscape and was raising money for content development, I would take the opportunity to raise a little extra to give me that two-year cushion to carry the Company through to at least October 2005.

There can be no denying that Superscape will indeed have the opportunity to exploit 3G and the new market for OTA content that will be available to the masses by the end of this year and sooner or later the stock market will have to reflect this fact. However, investors must be aware that if this new market does not turn into the billion-dollar market that analysts are expecting then the Company could still ultimately fail although it must also be acknowledged that with every announcement the market risk to the Company diminishes just a little bit more.

Finally, it is probably worth mentioning that I was talking to the Finance Director after the EGM and noted with interest that he found it a little ironic that the market had taken the share price to over 5 in the past and yet now with the share price at around 30p, the Company has never been in better shape.

Many thanks for this Happy1. As I said earlier once the news capable phones are available the share will move up. One can almost sense how big this company can grow, take a look at any phone shop and look the phone designs and listen to people asking for everything in a phone. the more and advanced the better. take a look at the braket age of the shop visitors, mostly young 15-30. everybody changes phones all the time, it is a trendy thing to have a new state of the art phone. The early fundamentals are in place and the idea is there, SPS has the edge, one can see the contract won by them. Here we will need to be patience. 100p by year end is my prediction thanks

I thought it an excellent post and well worth sharing.Keep an eye on the iii board as the quality of posting there is excellent.I think this news will boost the tech market today

March 02, 2004

Technology back in favour after Civicas debut
By Nick Hasell
Smaller Capitalisation Shares



AIM followers were heralding a resurgence of interest in technology new issues after Civica, the software house which marked the junior markets biggest flotation this year, jumped 8 per cent in first-day dealings.
The 45 million offering was seen as a test of both investors appetite for IT stocks and the corporate finance skills of Seymour Pierce, the sponsoring stockbroker,m which is typically used to smaller fundraisings. On those counts, Civica which develops software used to process penalty tickets for bus lane and parking infringements was an unalloyed success. The shares, placed at 175p, closed at 189p, giving Civica a stockmarket value of 86 million.



If last years flotations of Northumbrian Water and Center Parcs UK which both raised money prior to admission are set to one side, Civica marks the largest such AIM fundraising since that of PRI Group, the insurer, in June 2002

SPS will be releasing their results on 21st April.

True to their word.

skids


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SUPERSCAPE PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT BRINGS GAMES TO 5TH NETWORK OPERATOR ON LIST OF
TOP TEN TARGETED OPERATORS


Tuesday 3rd August 2004, Hook, Hampshire, UK: Superscape Group plc (LSE: SPS),
the leader in revolutionary entertainment for mobile phones, announces a
partnership to bring its games to the fifth of the company's top ten targeted
network operators. The games will be available on the new network over the
course of the next few weeks.


Kevin Roberts, CEO, Superscape Group plc said: 'This is an important win for
Superscape as we continue our focus on signing agreements and partnerships to
distribute our games on all top ten targeted operators. The total number of
subscribers being served, by the combination of our top ten targeted operators
and Superscape's partnership strategy covering an additional sixty plus
operators, is over one billion subscribers worldwide.


Roberts continued, ' Global wireless gaming revenue was approximately $1.1
billion in 2003 and is expected to grow to $8.4 billion in 2008. Wireless
carriers are increasingly launching and promoting wireless entertainment
applications to differentiate their services and drive revenues. Superscape is
ideally positioned, through its approved industry-standard technology and
portfolio of high-profile branded mobile games, to have a clear first to market
advantage in the 3D mobile gaming market.'


About Superscape

Superscape is quoted on the London Stock Exchange and has corporate offices in
Hook, Hampshire (UK) and San Clemente, California (USA).
www.superscape.com