ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Eric,sd,woodie,and all.
HNY to all, Have been fighting my way back from a cardiac arrest in april last year and a house move in November which meant a isp change to tiscali. Have caught up with the thread at last and am delighted I held onto my holding which is now free of IHT. No change this morning so far, and concur with Eric and sd that its still a very good one to be in. SD

seadog happy new year to you as well ,looks like the s/p is set to be better then last year heres hoping

Welcome back, SeaDog. Sorry to hear about the problems but great that you are fit again. A nice little upward trend set in although perhaps you prefer waves. We are into new ground so no defined resistance level. The short term trend line is quite steep but there is also a defined long term trend line reflecting the on-going 50% turnover growth line. The short term trend line says 150p by the April prelims.

Eric

that will be nice eric

sd (the little dog!) Interested in your view on the short term and long term trend lines. 2004 saw the sp move from about 10p to 80p; 2005 from 50p to 110p; current trend started at 80p so doubling seems reasonable. Given the on-going 50%+ trading trend, the other view to take is where the pe should be going. Surely we should be looking for a pe of something like 40 following the results. Can you think of any parallels?

Welcome back Big Dog. I hope you're feeling fit and haven't had to many nasty shocks on rejoining the on-line service.

As to ASC, it's looking very good just now. My guess is the trading update on Mon Jan 15(?) needs to be top of the range to prevent a mild sell off/retracement (BORSON theory). After that the finals (4th July last year - could be a tad earlier without warehouse fire complications this year) will need to show strong forward looking statements to continue the rise to about 160p at which point I would expect considerable profit taking.

I divine this to be the natural peak short term from looking at the trading channel from Jan 04. The top line, passing through Dec 04 peak and parallel to the base line joining fairly consistently all the major troughs, crosses the chart at today's date just about at 150p. We should go a little bit beyond there as the top line rises further into the future.

Thereafter we will need to see greater than the current 28% broker forecast growth in EPS to sustain the historic PE of 47 by that heady stage. Otherwise we will drift down again to the bottom of the channel, boucing off at somewhere near 120p again. Then we should ride the next (fifth?) wave up to 190p (?!?) by next January.

Alternatively, just lock these away for 3 more years and don't fret about the ups and downs. Within the UK ASC seem to be able to cross produuct parameters into new market ranges with ease, then we have Europe to come and thereafter (I hope in that order) the US taken at the bottom of a retail cycle (rather than at the top of one now).

But then, being a small dog, I know nothing. My new year's resolution is to operate 15% trailing stop losses (which would have left me much better off had I used these on all my shares over the last two years). The other one is to limit speculative stocks to a much smaller portfolio share and concentrate on profitable, growth trading companies which behave so much more reliably and whose fundamentals can at least be attempted with a reasonable degree of competence.

Happy investing for 2007.

sd

A small dog but a big and wise brain! Pleased to see that your conclusions correspond to mine. The 28% growth figure is out-of-date and John Marshall (Shares) expects an updated forecast: he is good at keeping in touch with company executives. The straight line growth may be cautious as we are likely to see continued endemic growth of 50% plus - based on a mark up to 50% of internet growth rates.

Have just bought into EBTM (Everything but the Music). Very much modelled on ASOS, Quentin Griffiths is on both Boards and the head buyer is ex-ASOS. Interims on Wednesday. Interesting that funds raised by a placing are designated for European expansion. Have a look at the thread.

Eric

Eric - been following EBTM with intention of a close study of results when out. Promised myself I'd look at them before buying in.

My friend Donaferentes on another board had this to say:-

Interesting to know what QG's target price is before he starts to realise his profit. His selling down of his position in ASOS kept the SP in check for some considerable time - now he's out (or below 3%) the SP has rocketed recently.

Are you in for QG's timescale and return or looking for a longer burn on this one?

BTW thanks to GG for the holdings numbers. Post new equity issued multiply all those figures by 88% for the dilutive effects of the issue - unless any existing holders bought intot hte placing, but there should have been an RNS or two to reflect that by now if so. My guess was it went to a new bunch of private clients of their broker. In which case 52.8% above holders plus hopefully the newly issued 12% = 64.8% now tightly held. Free float of only 35.2% = 38.89m shares should cause a pretty volatile SP, so hold on tight if you are along for the ride! At an average paid price of 5p and 5,000 per PI, that's 389 PIs - a pretty small club into which to attract new memmbers as the word spreads.

I remain very interested, but am staying true to my declared posisiton of waiting for results before committing. What's a couple of pence between here and 50p!?!

GG says he has visited the company and is impressed by management and logistical resources.

BTW the shareholdings prior to above equity placing were as follows:

Andrew Burgess - 4.77%
Richard Breeden - 21.20%
Rod Carlton - 9.70%
Q Griffiths - 17.90%
John Morgan - 6.20%

Everyone except AB is management

Am I being too cautious waiting for results?

Edit: PS - apologies for OT. Normal ASC service will now be resumed.

sd

sd Thanks for the feedback re EBTM. Looks as if QG may have diluted his ASC holding to raise funds for EBTM. Not sure whether management need to report acquisition during the placing or a change to their % holding (if over 3%). Burgess seems to have been building his holding up gradually. Might not the placing have been during a close period, awaiting the interims, which might prevent participation?

I have invested profitably with Hoodless Brennan before. They took a big chunk of the placing and have sold it on at a profit to their clients. Discussed ASOS with them: they originally advised their clients to buy at 4p early 2005 - I got in at 23p after a couple of months struck by successive Shares write-ups. I feel there is a good chance of a significant mark-up with the interims. There are not really any comparative figures and the period will have seen investment in logistical resources and marketing. Net sales will only be around 500K but around 450K for Q3 and perhaps 1.3m for year. That may be just around break-even level. Presently year on year growth is 275% (Christmas season) reflecting the website and broadening product range. If volume doubles for three years then we will talking about 10m sales and a decent profit. Given the ASC connections I think the market will give them credit ahead of time and that could well mean a rerating at the interims. I would advise you to be in, at least with an exploratory stake. I have gone for 50K shares which is a typical, not overweight, level.

Apologies to readers for non-ASC comment but given that it is effectiely a stable companion, using the same formula, I reckon ASC holders will be interested.

Eric

from todays Independent on Sunday

Payoff plan for laid-off workers runs into a roadblock at TVR; Russian owner's goodwill redundancy gesture may crash because other creditors must also be paid (business & money p.1) - MARKET MOVER: Asos (may be at the riskier end of the investment spectrum, but its growth is strong, customer numbers are up and there is optimism over its Christmas sales -Harry Nimmo, investment manager with Standard Life) - MARKET WHISPERS: Next (is it to become the next retailer to fall into the hands of private equity?), ICI (vague takeover rumours; market speculation centres on Akzo Nobel as the potential buyer), AA (CVC Capital and Permira could float it in the first quarter of this year), Punch Graphix (battle is underway for control), First Choice (Thomas Cook rumoured to be on the verge of entering the battle for the business)

Well, interims on Monday. Should see really good trading figures for Xmas. Hopefully, there will be an analysts upgrade, either at the same time or closely following. Then John Marshall will give an inside view in Shares on Thursday. I am looking for a positive week for the sp but somewhat surprised that the sp hs been relatively wek this week. Not unusual for some to take profits before the interims but the analysts upgrade has been forecast and I doubt whether it has been built into the price.

eric i would not be suprised to see the s/price go down a bit further the ftse and the rest of the uk market has been weak over the last month

not to mention the interest rate rise on Thursday which is aimed directly at stopping ASOS's success if you think about it - unnecessary consumer spending at high profit margin must be deemed inflationary.

Woodie It really depends primarily on how the figures compare with expectations. First half sales were up 94% whilst the first six weeks of second half were up 62%. There is no comparison for the Christmas period because of the fire. The projection could be turnover of 40m this year and profit of 3.5m or an eps of 5p which implies a pe of around 25 (a bit better than sd figures of about a month ago). The key point about an updated forecast is that this would give a projection for next year. If this indicates a pe of around 15 there should be a further readjustment in price to bring this figure to something like 20. There would still be something to go for.

The figures should be out in time for John Marshall to comment in Shares on Thursday. He holds the shares and has been a great enthusiast; his projections will be important if Seymour Pearce have not previously quoted figures.

The FTSE recovered ground at the end of the week, responding positively to the interest rate increase. The DOW is at a new high. I think ASOS will be jusged on their own merits. There could be profit taking but I suspect also considerable new buying. The price movement will depend on the balance between these.

Eric

as ever eric a balanced post

Woodie - it's Eric's prodigious chin! (geddit - balanced post - oh never mind)

Looking forward to 7am tomorrow, I hope.

stockdog nice one 7am it is

So Eric has the chin while sd has the wag!

Yeah! Will be up on or near the dot of 7am - particularly interesting one this.

ASOS PLC
FOR RELEASE
7.00 AM
15 JANUARY 2007


ASOS plc
('ASOS' or 'Group')
(Leading online fashion retailer)

CHRISTMAS TRADING STATEMENT


* ASOS.com sales + 80% for the 4 weeks to 10 December 2006**

NB. **Comparative figures for 11 December 2006 to 15 January 2007 do not exist
due to the closure of ASOS following the Buncefield fuel depot explosion on
11 December 2005


* Strong trading continues


* 710,000 items (285,000 orders) successfully shipped across November
and December 2006


Against tougher comparatives ASOS managed an 80% increase in sales for the 4
weeks to 10 December and trading has continued strongly since. 710,000 items
(285,000 orders) were shipped over the Christmas period.


Nick Robertson, the Chief Executive, commenting on Christmas trading, said:

'We had a great Christmas. The fact that we continue to outperform the online
market in general, is testament to our buyers, our proposition, and the enduring
appeal of ASOS amongst our core customer base.

Due to the warehouse closure last year, we do not have a comparative for the
whole Christmas period. Current trading is in line with internal forecasts and
at this stage we estimate our profit before tax for the full year will be in
line with market expectations

not sure what the market will make of Current trading is in line with internal forecasts and
at this stage we estimate our profit before tax for the full year will be in
line with market expectations