Read the latest interims.......just make sure that you are sitting down.

Good time to short would be about a week before results. This time Im going in and cant wait for 588p coming up. Any drop in margins wont be taken lightly by the market.

Long term this analysis from China would point to sola having problems .....


Take a look at the following analysis coming from China:

"China as the biggest solar cell manufacture base,Most of wafer were sold to the local clients,but also has about 20% sells to the oversea market,Taiwan is the biggest sells region in the oversea market, Europe Union,USA,Kore,Japan also have some demand. about Rae materials, as polysilicon shortage and most polysilicon manufacturer order are full till the end of 2008, so, almost all the raw materials were from renewable material or high price spot market polysilicon.Some large and famous manufacturers(such as Jinglong LDK Yingli Solar Trina Solar etc)signed some long term polysilicon supply contracts, but most of the contract can not supply polysilicon before 2009. so revewable material and high price spot market polisilicon will be the major raw material in China local wafer industry. By the way, almost all Wafer manufacturers net income rate is higher than cell suppliers, some companies net income rate is more than 30%; this bring a lot of new enter as most equipment vendors can offer one stop sales of wafer factory solution. Investors who have capital, downstream clients,and also have relationship with some upstream raw material vendors will enter this industry, in fact, almost all large and big wafer project were occurred during 2005-Aug,2007. and will also some new enter in the coming years. thus the competition of China wafer industry will be serious. Research Team suggest that new enter who owned raw material will own great advantage in the competition."

2008 could prove tricky - Renesola has 1500 tons of polysilicon in the pipeline for 2008 which includes scrap and it's own supply coming on stream in the first quarter. But 1500 tons is only enough to produce 170MW output, while Renesola starts 2008 with the capacity to produce 373MW. So it doesn't look like Renesola will be able to opperate at anything like full capacity next year without tapping the spot market which looks like it will be expensive and hit margins as most contractors can't now supply polysilicon before 2009.

if you think 588 will be reached, why have you not gone long at this level?

Like in your post above cynic im not buying anything new at the moment.

Im just holding my present portfolio which is long term.

Theres just a feel about this present market that a big blow could be coming along.

Better to be cautious than gamble at present imho.

you're the one who says sp will reach 588, not me!

Now Cyn, don't you go ruffling feathers you bad boy.

moi?

Cynic I think my bad grammer as let me down on my original post and you have misinterpreted my future actions. 588p being the bond redemption price and when 10% of the whole company is up for possible dilution.

Appologies.

Looking at JTC with a possible short.

Not in that one are you Kitos?.

if the company report falling margins come results day the market will take it as a profit warning given this from the last results.....

"We have taken further steps to address the issue of increasing raw material
prices, which resulted in pressure on margins during the second quarter,
through implementing cost reduction measures and increasing and diversifying
our sources of silicon feedstock.ENDS.

Its there in black and white and he (ceo) added to it by saying tolling agreements would be increased and this in turn would stop margin errosion.

Keep 'em coming GF ......

JTC ...... ?........no mate, not in there.........Not JT Cods outfit is it ?. LOL.

Looks like SOLA is on the rise again...maybe it is the time to buy in now at 430p.

Go on then ;)

Hlyeo98 as results are due soon it could prove to be a bad decision.

For what its worth I see a lot deserting before results. (short term speculators)

Good luck on your decision.

Double Top maybe, could be good for a 80-100pt short, also trying to push through a falling trendline established in June. Haven't looked but I daresay most of the indicators will be calling for a 'rest'.

DYOR

Thanks gf and pth for the advice

More convinced than ever that SOLA is shaping up for a short - why?

1. Negative divergence on the MACD (lower high)
2. Strong possibility of a 'top failure swing' on the RSI - the RSI is in overbought territory.
3. Double top
4. Hitting historical SP resistance
5. Hitting falling trendline resistance

Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position, but he who dares Rodney :) DYOR etc.

pth

" Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position "

Why wait pth, if you have so much belief in your charting skills.?

Because Kits dear chap all of the above are potential signals not confirmed signals. But anyway who said I was going to wait? :-P

pth

and equally, no one has ever claimed that charts and similar were other than indicators, which over time have proved more often right than wrong ...... if they were otherwise, there would not be such a strong body of followers

Having read the comments both here and on the GTL thread I think it is important to state why I said:

" Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position "

A basic principle (and probably the most important) of TA is follow the trend, picking tops and bottoms is a dangerous sport, obviously by shorting SOLA at the moment is trading against the current trend. Having said that, spotting the right entry reaps the greatest rewards.

pth