ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

sd Thanks for the feedback re EBTM. Looks as if QG may have diluted his ASC holding to raise funds for EBTM. Not sure whether management need to report acquisition during the placing or a change to their % holding (if over 3%). Burgess seems to have been building his holding up gradually. Might not the placing have been during a close period, awaiting the interims, which might prevent participation?

I have invested profitably with Hoodless Brennan before. They took a big chunk of the placing and have sold it on at a profit to their clients. Discussed ASOS with them: they originally advised their clients to buy at 4p early 2005 - I got in at 23p after a couple of months struck by successive Shares write-ups. I feel there is a good chance of a significant mark-up with the interims. There are not really any comparative figures and the period will have seen investment in logistical resources and marketing. Net sales will only be around 500K but around 450K for Q3 and perhaps 1.3m for year. That may be just around break-even level. Presently year on year growth is 275% (Christmas season) reflecting the website and broadening product range. If volume doubles for three years then we will talking about 10m sales and a decent profit. Given the ASC connections I think the market will give them credit ahead of time and that could well mean a rerating at the interims. I would advise you to be in, at least with an exploratory stake. I have gone for 50K shares which is a typical, not overweight, level.

Apologies to readers for non-ASC comment but given that it is effectiely a stable companion, using the same formula, I reckon ASC holders will be interested.

Eric

from todays Independent on Sunday

Payoff plan for laid-off workers runs into a roadblock at TVR; Russian owner's goodwill redundancy gesture may crash because other creditors must also be paid (business & money p.1) - MARKET MOVER: Asos (may be at the riskier end of the investment spectrum, but its growth is strong, customer numbers are up and there is optimism over its Christmas sales -Harry Nimmo, investment manager with Standard Life) - MARKET WHISPERS: Next (is it to become the next retailer to fall into the hands of private equity?), ICI (vague takeover rumours; market speculation centres on Akzo Nobel as the potential buyer), AA (CVC Capital and Permira could float it in the first quarter of this year), Punch Graphix (battle is underway for control), First Choice (Thomas Cook rumoured to be on the verge of entering the battle for the business)

Well, interims on Monday. Should see really good trading figures for Xmas. Hopefully, there will be an analysts upgrade, either at the same time or closely following. Then John Marshall will give an inside view in Shares on Thursday. I am looking for a positive week for the sp but somewhat surprised that the sp hs been relatively wek this week. Not unusual for some to take profits before the interims but the analysts upgrade has been forecast and I doubt whether it has been built into the price.

eric i would not be suprised to see the s/price go down a bit further the ftse and the rest of the uk market has been weak over the last month

not to mention the interest rate rise on Thursday which is aimed directly at stopping ASOS's success if you think about it - unnecessary consumer spending at high profit margin must be deemed inflationary.

Woodie It really depends primarily on how the figures compare with expectations. First half sales were up 94% whilst the first six weeks of second half were up 62%. There is no comparison for the Christmas period because of the fire. The projection could be turnover of 40m this year and profit of 3.5m or an eps of 5p which implies a pe of around 25 (a bit better than sd figures of about a month ago). The key point about an updated forecast is that this would give a projection for next year. If this indicates a pe of around 15 there should be a further readjustment in price to bring this figure to something like 20. There would still be something to go for.

The figures should be out in time for John Marshall to comment in Shares on Thursday. He holds the shares and has been a great enthusiast; his projections will be important if Seymour Pearce have not previously quoted figures.

The FTSE recovered ground at the end of the week, responding positively to the interest rate increase. The DOW is at a new high. I think ASOS will be jusged on their own merits. There could be profit taking but I suspect also considerable new buying. The price movement will depend on the balance between these.

Eric

as ever eric a balanced post

Woodie - it's Eric's prodigious chin! (geddit - balanced post - oh never mind)

Looking forward to 7am tomorrow, I hope.

stockdog nice one 7am it is

So Eric has the chin while sd has the wag!

Yeah! Will be up on or near the dot of 7am - particularly interesting one this.

ASOS PLC
FOR RELEASE
7.00 AM
15 JANUARY 2007


ASOS plc
('ASOS' or 'Group')
(Leading online fashion retailer)

CHRISTMAS TRADING STATEMENT


* ASOS.com sales + 80% for the 4 weeks to 10 December 2006**

NB. **Comparative figures for 11 December 2006 to 15 January 2007 do not exist
due to the closure of ASOS following the Buncefield fuel depot explosion on
11 December 2005


* Strong trading continues


* 710,000 items (285,000 orders) successfully shipped across November
and December 2006


Against tougher comparatives ASOS managed an 80% increase in sales for the 4
weeks to 10 December and trading has continued strongly since. 710,000 items
(285,000 orders) were shipped over the Christmas period.


Nick Robertson, the Chief Executive, commenting on Christmas trading, said:

'We had a great Christmas. The fact that we continue to outperform the online
market in general, is testament to our buyers, our proposition, and the enduring
appeal of ASOS amongst our core customer base.

Due to the warehouse closure last year, we do not have a comparative for the
whole Christmas period. Current trading is in line with internal forecasts and
at this stage we estimate our profit before tax for the full year will be in
line with market expectations

not sure what the market will make of Current trading is in line with internal forecasts and
at this stage we estimate our profit before tax for the full year will be in
line with market expectations

It's a good strong statement, saying FY results will not be less than market expectations - i.e. quite possibly a bit better, but reserving his position, since the year is not yet finished, and also so actual results will give a further boost at that time.

80% up has to be good and I bet the insurance claim last year was a lot less than the actuals over the 2 weeks to Xmas this year.

Market forecast is for EPS of 3.38p (78% growth) for a PE of 36.1 and a PEG of 0.5 - a nice strong growth stock. However EPS for 2008 only forecast to grow at 26% - presumably due to further spending on logistics/distribution and European expansion. Then we pick up the trail again with 57% growth for 2009. That will make 50% p.a. compound growth over 4 years since first profitability at a 2009 PE of 18.2 and PEG of 0.36 - wonderful. As long as NR and team continue to perform as hitherto there is alot of life left in this share for a few years to come.

(However not as strong as RCG's update! - sorry off topic.)

Profit taking this morning, Eric.....?

Interesting day. As expected, quite a lot of profit taking first thing. Surprising though to see the sp back 6 points. Half recovered by the end of the day with a good lot of buying. More than half the selling accounted for by a 250K trade sale.

As the savvy sd says, probably Robertson is holding his hosses on year end but his enthusiasm is palpable. Worth looking at the later AFX statements as they add detail, e.g. planning this year to focus on extending product size ranges and attracting mpre major fashion labels to the site; also doubling pages in its glossy magazine. No mention of Europe. This could mean another bumber trading year and bring forward the 2009 forecast a year. More will be unfolded with the April trading statement and Finals. I recall that Seymour Pierce said that they would update their forecast.

Eric

The key dates last year were: 10th May trading update and 4th July for Finals. I would expect these to be earlier this year given the complications of the fire insurance claim. John Marshall's comments in Shares should be interesting. the trading figures do indicate a forecast upgrade. The potential should keep buyers interested and I am still looking for the sp to move higher in the near term.

2007 looks low as all trading figures have been better than 78% (85%?). 2008 looks very low on sd figures as there is clearly so much action left in the UK market as is clear from today's commentary. So the 28% could be way down and actual figure more like 60%. So we could be looking at a 2008 pe of 20 when it should be 30. With dividends a real possibilitythis is becoming an investment for dividend growth share - no more speculative - boo hoo! Do I move on? When the market valuation has changed accordingly.

Eric

Can't remember which brokers cover this share. Are we due an update from any of them after the trading update, or do we have to wait till the prelims in June/July?

15/01/2007 10:00 MARKET TALK: ASOS House Broker Seymour Rejigs Forecasts

1000 GMT [Dow Jones] ASOS' (ASC.LN) house broker Seymour Pierce rejigs the online retailer's sales and profit forecasts following its Christmas trading update. "Whilst sales have been good by anyone's standards, it looks as if our initial estimate of group turnover has been a little optimistic, and we pull it back by GBP2.8M to GBP37.55M. Even so, profits are expected to be in line with market expectations, with higher margin and slightly lower-than-expected overheads. As a result, we leave our (pretax profit) estimate at GBP3.31M," the broker says. For fiscal '08, Seymour Pierce upgrades turnover to GBP52.55M from GBP51.6M, up 40% in the Asos.com business, and with margins expected to improve, the broker increases its pretax profit estimate to GBP4.45M from GBP3.8M. Seymour Pierce retains a buy on ASOS. ASOS shares trade -4.9% at 116.25p. (LEV) Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464 Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com

Well done, Woodie. You answered sd's questions within the hour. Firstly, let me say that the projection is made more difficult by problems in comparison with last year (the fire) and the preceding year (warehousing problems affecting Xmas sales). My check on the figures says that the comparison year (2006) should be more like 23.5m based on second half mirroring first half. An 80% uplift would then give 41.7m. You wonder what basis has been used for projections.

There is an uplift to 2008 figures which looks cautious based on trend figures in the UK internet figure and the small market penetration yet achieved. Of course, if they start making a major run for Europe it could take their eye off the UK ball.

2008 figures are earnings of 6p per share, say 4.2p after tax or a pe of 28.5 at 120p. Seymour Pierce rate ASC a buy. I suspect it is moving from a trader's share to an investor's share.

Eric

Independent

MARKET REPORT: Compass (rumours of buyout) - THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: Lookers (buy), Asos (buy), Victoria Oil & Gas (hold