ptholden
- 25 Oct 2007 20:28
- 1925 of 3050
Go on then ;)
goldfinger
- 26 Oct 2007 00:13
- 1926 of 3050
Hlyeo98 as results are due soon it could prove to be a bad decision.
For what its worth I see a lot deserting before results. (short term speculators)
Good luck on your decision.
ptholden
- 26 Oct 2007 19:45
- 1927 of 3050
Double Top maybe, could be good for a 80-100pt short, also trying to push through a falling trendline established in June. Haven't looked but I daresay most of the indicators will be calling for a 'rest'.
DYOR
hlyeo98
- 27 Oct 2007 09:21
- 1928 of 3050
Thanks gf and pth for the advice
ptholden
- 27 Oct 2007 18:08
- 1929 of 3050
More convinced than ever that SOLA is shaping up for a short - why?
1. Negative divergence on the MACD (lower high)
2. Strong possibility of a 'top failure swing' on the RSI - the RSI is in overbought territory.
3. Double top
4. Hitting historical SP resistance
5. Hitting falling trendline resistance
Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position, but he who dares Rodney :) DYOR etc.
pth
kitosdad
- 28 Oct 2007 07:16
- 1930 of 3050
" Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position "
Why wait pth, if you have so much belief in your charting skills.?
ptholden
- 28 Oct 2007 07:56
- 1931 of 3050
Because Kits dear chap all of the above are potential signals not confirmed signals. But anyway who said I was going to wait? :-P
pth
cynic
- 28 Oct 2007 14:29
- 1932 of 3050
and equally, no one has ever claimed that charts and similar were other than indicators, which over time have proved more often right than wrong ...... if they were otherwise, there would not be such a strong body of followers
ptholden
- 28 Oct 2007 19:54
- 1933 of 3050
Having read the comments both here and on the GTL thread I think it is important to state why I said:
" Probably better to wait for confirmation before taking a position "
A basic principle (and probably the most important) of TA is follow the trend, picking tops and bottoms is a dangerous sport, obviously by shorting SOLA at the moment is trading against the current trend. Having said that, spotting the right entry reaps the greatest rewards.
pth
kitosdad
- 29 Oct 2007 08:56
- 1934 of 3050
Morning Cyn, How you faring Mate.?
Wish we could get it right once in a while pth. Put all my SOLA gains into WCC which is doing very for me, but I am well down in JHL, which I really thought would do well. Ugh.!!
Still, if you 'aint in, then you can't win.
spitfire43
- 29 Oct 2007 09:16
- 1935 of 3050
Don't worry pth, I was looking to invest in sola and others in sector for the longer time. Still looking into fundamentals and will proberbly delay entry on a pull back in sp.(hopefully) Would only ever go short on a stock if the story had changed or negative news flow.
cynic
- 29 Oct 2007 10:23
- 1936 of 3050
hi kit .... currently in dubai on biz but back in nuk tomorrow evening .... no ps at mo in SOLA but continue to watch ...... portfolio doing very nicely, especially IEC POG TIO and NRK (short) ...... imo, markets are def overdue a (significant) fall so watch for Dow to hit 14250 and very def if it hits 14440 ..... shall then be shorting there!
ptholden
- 29 Oct 2007 11:42
- 1937 of 3050
Possibly jumped the gun this morning with a very conservative short at 450.
kitosdad
- 29 Oct 2007 11:58
- 1938 of 3050
pth, I agree with your sentiment .. it has to pull back soon, but when is soon ?. Very strong following at the moment.
sivad
- 29 Oct 2007 15:34
- 1939 of 3050
Anybody who shorts on this is palying with fire-The stock has been shorted in the past and made peolple money-the fundamentals are in place to stop it happening again.
results though will be crucial as well as the forward statement.
The demand for the product is so intense I am long and will stay long.
ptholden
- 29 Oct 2007 15:47
- 1940 of 3050
I remember quite a few posters saying the same thing both here and on other boards all the way down from 6 to 5 and then oops to less than 2. Demand can be as 'intense' as it likes but SOLA must achieve reasonable profits at reasonable margins in line with City expectations, something they have failed to do during the last 12 months. In any event, as stated, my own short is very conservative so if it does go the wrong way I won't be suffering burns of any degree, just a minor blow to my judgement :)
pth
kitosdad
- 29 Oct 2007 16:30
- 1941 of 3050
Nice sensible post pth.
cynic
- 29 Oct 2007 18:27
- 1942 of 3050
i think PTH has disobeyed basics by pising against the wind ..... neverthless, i think the idea is correct; it's just that at the moment the markets think nirvana is nigh, whereas PTH and myself have a different opinion
Falcothou
- 29 Oct 2007 18:49
- 1943 of 3050
Didn't the lead singer of Nirvana blow his head off? May be the market thinks it's Kurt Cobain
ptholden
- 29 Oct 2007 20:42
- 1944 of 3050
Yes indeedy Richard, the trend is your friend 'n all. I did state quite clearly that picking tops and bottoms is a dnagerous sport and that I had probably jumped the gun, hope none of the lurkers followed me in. But it really is a small stake so no harm done or will be done :)
Just to reiterate the first four basics:
1. Check the overall market
2. Check the sector market
3. Check the current trend
4. Trade in the direction of the trend
And all four are up and these four take preference over the other indicators, which perversely all indicate short. Bit like SCHE Richard, I knew it was going to come off, but getting the timing right is soooo difficult.
However, a lesson re-learnt and reinforced.
As far as the overall market is concerned I strongly believe that the volatility over the late summer is merely the prelude to a real correction, I doubt we have seen anything yet.
Edit: Oh, SOLA will still come off, I'll bet on it :-).................again!!
pth