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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Dil - 29 Sep 2004 17:52 - 1940 of 11056

Off out soon Hils , Ebboo V Pontypool local derby , stop left at 1.80

Maggot - 29 Sep 2004 23:12 - 1941 of 11056

Had a small long on Cable last night, stop at 17983 with it moving very slowly - a range of less than 20 points in the previous three hours - and out of nowhere comes a 16-point spike down (which of course takes me out). I'm becoming more and more suspicious of these spikes. How can it happen in the normal course of dealing????

Dil - 30 Sep 2004 00:06 - 1942 of 11056

Stopped out ... but Ebbooo won Hils

hilary - 30 Sep 2004 07:01 - 1943 of 11056

I'm so pleased for you, Dilbert. It was obviously an important match.

Maggot,

I really don't think that Cable is worth trading in late US and Asian trade. The bulk of the volume goes through between 7am and 2pm. You either run the trade for a few days or weeks and don't lose sleep during the overnight hours, or you daytrade and close your position each day once your strategy knocks you out, whenever that might be.

hodgins - 01 Oct 2004 07:58 - 1944 of 11056

buy under 1.81 or stochastics crossing up?

hilary - 01 Oct 2004 08:24 - 1945 of 11056

Personally, I see Cable as a sell atm, hodgins. Just my opinion. Have you looked at the 1 hour chart?

hodgins - 01 Oct 2004 09:46 - 1946 of 11056

heading down, get below horizontal support on hourly?

hilary - 01 Oct 2004 11:23 - 1947 of 11056

The Pound is very weak generally today. As well as being 1.5 Cents off against the Dollar, it's also 1 Cent off against the Euro.

It's a GBP bearishness scenario, rather than USD bullishness.

hodgins - 01 Oct 2004 12:23 - 1948 of 11056

great call, pound didn't like the figures, only really watched here though.
G7/8 looms?

hilary - 05 Oct 2004 12:20 - 1949 of 11056

If cable can break 1.78, you can turn the lights out and go home imo.

hilary - 06 Oct 2004 08:02 - 1950 of 11056

I've got to say that I really don't understand this sometimes.

I'm short Cable and have been for a few days based upon the chart. However, when the price of oil started to consume all earlier in the summer, the USD weakened considerably across the board and the interest rate differential was brushed aside. Now though, oil is hitting fresh highs and yet the oil part of the equation seems to be being ignored as the Dollar strengthens. Why?

The only conclusion that I can draw is that it simply shows just how fickle the market actually is.

hilary - 06 Oct 2004 09:10 - 1951 of 11056

Covered my Cable short and reversed. See where that goes over the next few days.

hilary - 06 Oct 2004 09:43 - 1952 of 11056

What a naff entry.

:o(

prodman - 06 Oct 2004 19:36 - 1953 of 11056

BULLET: EURO-DOLLAR: One trader asserting that the USD is....
EURO-DOLLAR: One trader asserting that the USD is getting some lift from the recent reported Fed Gov. comments suggesting higher rates could be ahead in the US. Euro has slipped to around $1.2275 on the news but trader doesnamp;apos;t think we see the morning lows again today, at least not until late in the session. Thinks some of the decent bids under $1.2250 that supported earlier amp;quot;may have reloaded.amp;quot;

Provided by: Market News International

hilary - 11 Oct 2004 08:05 - 1954 of 11056

From the Sundays:

"Pressure for another interest rate rise will mount this week with the release of economic data which suggests Britain's consumer spending boom is far from over."

MightyMicro - 11 Oct 2004 09:22 - 1955 of 11056

Morning, Hil.

I still think that consumer spending is somewhat disconnected from the MLR. The MLR rises have had their effect on the housing market, where mortgage rates are close-coupled to MLR. Consumer spending is a function of easy credit from plastic, where the rates bear an indirect connection at best with MLR.

In the 1970s, the Heath government took action to raise minimum payments on credit card debt to attempt to curb consumer spending (yes, I am that old).

hilary - 11 Oct 2004 09:52 - 1956 of 11056

Derek,

Who knows whether the MPC are really concerned about consumer debt levels? Probably only the MPC members themselves.

This game is not what the MPC thinks, but rather it's about what the market thinks and, this week, it seems to be convenient for the market to consider high levels of consumer spending within the overall interest rate differential equation. The GBP is going up atm and it's a case of "fitting" the news to the chart.

Next week it may be appropriate or necessary to apply a different spin to the same news. That's because the market is always right.

:o)

hilary - 11 Oct 2004 10:16 - 1957 of 11056

Incidentally, I do think that consumer debt is important. Zero rate finance does not stimulate economic growth and simply bankrupts economies. Vis-a-vis Japan.

My thoughts are not important though.

:o)

MightyMicro - 11 Oct 2004 11:17 - 1958 of 11056

Au contraire, Hil, I hang on your every word :)

Yes, consumer debt is important -- you can make a case that unsecured consumer debt is a much greater risk to the economy than debt secured on physical assets.

I agree with you about the market always being right -- I'm an old-fashioned Thatcherite myself.

hilary - 12 Oct 2004 09:37 - 1959 of 11056

9:30 data just goes to emphasise that financial journos really are clueless gonks.
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