goldfinger
- 01 Sep 2004 15:33
This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.
Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........
MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture
We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.
Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.
This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)
The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.
Please DYOR
cheers GF.
hampi_man
- 05 Nov 2005 15:48
- 1941 of 2444
Well, I don't know of any family that hasn't been affected at one stage or other by the big C, hopefully MMGs efforts won't go unrewarded
stuartth1309
- 07 Nov 2005 17:20
- 1942 of 2444
Made a profit on this a while back and like to keep an eye on how things are progressing.
Curious end of day today -
16:25:30 138p 138p 145p 500 690 SELL O
16:25:24 138p 138p 145p 1,250 1,725 SELL O
16:24:38 138p 138p 145p 1,267 1,748 SELL O
16:23:07 140p 140p 145p 5,000 7,000 SELL O
16:20:23 142.78p 142p 148p 2,000 2,856 SELL O
16:19:59 147p 142p 148p 25,000 36,750 BUY T
16:19:33 145p 144p 148p 5,000 7,250 SELL O
16:16:27 146p 146p 152p 10,000 14,600 SELL O
15:52:16 146p 146p 152p 25,000 36,500 SELL O
Up ... and then a plummet at the end (~6 minutes) - am I missing something? Is this simply MM manipulation?
Apologies if I'm simply being a bit stupid (!) but this strikes me a slightly odd.
Stuart
doughboy66
- 07 Nov 2005 19:13
- 1943 of 2444
My thoughts exactly Stuart,a rather interesting day with regards trades.
100,000 shares bought at 16.59
10,000 Broker buy at 17.07
Add to that the 100,000 unknown which looks like a buy ,the MM trade and Friday afternoons 100,000 buy and you can see things are starting to hot up .
Surely this must open higher tomorrow with those late buys going through.
DB66
goldfinger
- 10 Nov 2005 14:02
- 1944 of 2444
Barstow predicts biotech bull market
Published: 12:11 Thursday 10 November 2005
The next bull market will be in biotech stocks but the tobacco sector has never looked worse, argues James Barstow, highly-respected manager of the Aurora investment trust.
Speaking at a meeting hosted by Arbuthnot Securities, Barstow, who owns positions in patent company BTG (BGC), Medical Marketing International (MMG) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), said: 'The next bull market will be in pharmaceuticals and biotech stocks.
'In the US, companies such as Amgen are starting to make big profits. Medical Marketing could be a massive performer if there's an increased risk of a pandemic. It has a DNA vaccine it could roll out within five weeks I couldn't get out of them whether they'd had a call from the government or not.'
However, Barstow, who runs a concentrated portfolio of just 33 stocks in his 40 million trust (ARR), is very negative on tobacco stocks.
'The prospects have never looked worse and the price/earnings ratios have never been higher,' he said.
cheers GF.
doughboy66
- 10 Nov 2005 14:56
- 1945 of 2444
Immediate Release 10 November 2005
MEDICAL MARKETING INTERNATIONAL
- Notification of Major Interests in Shares -
Medical Marketing International Group plc ("MMI or the Company"), (AIM:MMG)
received notification on 9 November 2005 that Universities Superannuation Scheme
Limited, UK Smaller Companies ("USS") had recently purchased 110,000 ordinary
shares in the Company. These recently purchased shares when added to the 635,367
new shares bought by USS in the recent MMI share placing, together with the USS
existing holdings in MMI, means that USS now has a notifiable interest in
4,685,367 ordinary shares of 0.2p in the Company.
As a result of this transaction, USS, has a notifiable interest in 8.04% of the
Company's current ordinary issued share capital. These shares are registered
under the name of Chase Nominees Limited (USS).
Exercise of Options
The Company also announces that, it today issued and allotted 10,000 new
ordinary shares of 0.2 pence each in the Company following an exercise of share
options at an exercise price of 31.5 pence per share.
These shares will rank pari passu with all existing ordinary shares. Application
has been made for admission of the new ordinary shares to trading on AIM and
dealings are expected to commence on 16th November 2005.
The number of ordinary shares in issue following admission of these shares will
be 58,264,171.
ENDS
doughboy66
- 11 Nov 2005 11:19
- 1946 of 2444
A very positive piece you posted Goldfinger ,SP moving up a bit today .
Lets hope we can break through that 1.50 barrier today
DB66
goldfinger
- 11 Nov 2005 12:12
- 1947 of 2444
Does look very positive DB, Im hoping to see Evil out pretty soon.
cheers GF.
mickeyskint
- 11 Nov 2005 12:32
- 1948 of 2444
GF
If he doesn't get out soon I think he'll get his fingers burnt big time. Anyone who shorts this is taking a big gamble. One bit of good news and it will fly, it's a high beta stock.
LOL
MS
goldfinger
- 11 Nov 2005 14:30
- 1949 of 2444
Sure is mickey. Hes not out of them today though.
cheers GF.
doughboy66
- 24 Nov 2005 12:33
- 1950 of 2444
From ADVFN worth a read ,even if you don`t agree with it.
moneym4ker - 24 Nov'05 - 09:31 - 6657 of 6660
There is currently a vaccum concerning the right valuation of MMI as the
house broker doesn't give these figures.
> There are only two meaningful methods of valuing a company like MMI, by
calculating the NPV or by comparison with peers. The NPV route is complex
and involves a lot of industry knowledge. The only broker to do an NPV on
MMI recently was Insinger. Here, Alex Isaac worked out an NPV prior to our
announcements about colon cancer, flu' and bacterial infections. Her
calculations gave her a price of 275p per share, which, with approximately
58 million shares in issue gives a market capitalisation of ?160 million.
This is still a bit low in comparison to our peers, and we have now added to
the clinical portfolio. The NPV takes into account the market size, the risk
and the likely deals with big pharma. NPV's generally assume a 95% risk with
pre-clinical products and a 35% risk at phase II. One of the chaps on your
bulletin board was a bit off target when he assumed a royalty rate from us
to the universities of 50%. The real figure is less than a 10th of that,
don't forget, we are funding all the development. The figures are of course
sensitive and confidential, however, I can tell you that typically we pay
very little up front other than paying patent costs. We fund the development
(although the charities are continuing to fund the current Genvax trials)
then we pay the originator a milestone payment, typically at the beginning
of phase III, at first market approval and then royalties on sales. The
milestones start in the tens of ?thousands, and rise to the hundreds of
?thousands when we actually have market approval. Royalties are usually at
the lower end of single figures.
> Assuming that we will license on to a major marketing partner, we would
expect a signature fee, collaborations fees, milestone fees and royalties
that add up to or exceed the packages outlined in the next paragraph.
Royalties can range from single figures to as high as 50%. The better the
product and the more competition to market it, the higher the figure.
Obviously I cannot reveal our target here, but we obviously believe that we
have some special products, and the number of discussions tends to endorse
this.
> On those calculations, it might be worth looking back at the size of deals
that have been done in the past few years. The Bristol Myers-Imclone deal
was worth a total of $2 BILLION for Erbitrux, a single anti-cancer, then I
understand, at phase III. Antisoma did a $500 million deal with Roche for a
product at phase II and there have been several others worth around $600
million at that stage. Merck did a single product deal a few weeks ago for a
product in phase I and the package was worth $199 million. Astra Zeneca paid
$100 million two years ago for an anti-cancer product not yet in the clinic.
> The problem we have is that there is no recent precedent for two whole
portfolios of potential blockbusters, the Genvax vaccines and ruthenium.
> Comments about MMI's share price not moving until we are profitable is
unlikely. What seems to move the share price is clinical data, patents
granting and, we assume, deals with big pharma would give us the endorsement
that would be recognised by the markets.
> A peer group analysis is equally difficult. There are companies out there
at a similar stage of development but we can't find any that have as large a
portfolio or one that has such market potential. The nearest we can find are
a few companies in the USA which have market caps of around $ 1 billion. USA
companies are valued much more highly than UK ones and they tend to have
more cash on their balance sheets. Adjusting for these,and for currency, it
would be easy to justify a market cap of ?400 million, which gives a share
price of around 690p.
> Another way of arriving at a peer comparison is to find a company with as
large a pipeline at a similar stage, and as these are all major
pharmaceutical companies, take out the effect of current sales (as we hardly
have any). Please do not quote this bit, but we have tw> ice as many
anti-cancer drugs in the clinic as Astra-Zeneca does. This part of their
portfolio alone is said by analysts to contribute ?500 million to AZ's
overall value.
> We have seen speculation about MMI being the next Microsoft or Vodafone.
Although this sort of speculation might be counter-productive, it is worth
remembering that most major drug companies became big on the back of one
blockbuster. Glaxo with Zantac, SmithKline Beecham with Tagamet, both
revolutionary drugs in their day as they cured ulcers rather than requiring
surgery. It is perfectly possible that this happens to MMI, but speculation
invites comparisons with British Biotech and we don't want to go there!!
> We are meeting with a number of other analysts and hopefully some more
will be interested in writing about MMI and perhaps giving a view on
valuation.
> Lastly, again, not to be reported yet, but we are hoping to get Buchanan's
to host our AGM slides and words on their server giving shareholders easy
access to it whilst we are redesigning our web site and replacing the IT
system.
> A few more comments about speculation on another BB:
> The ruthenium compounds are NOT all the same. Each one shows a different
range of activities. You may recall that we have mentioned this lots and
even produced a slide on it. Each ruthenium compound targets a specific
cancer type, this is probably why they appear to be so much better than the
platinum drugs. It would be very unlikely that we would progress all 8000
compounds to the clinic, but even in the first generation there are at least
15 compounds that are very good. Obviously, we are working on the second
generation already. The Genvax vaccines too are all different, there are
currently two bespoke ones for lymphoma and myeloma, two non-bespoke ones
for prostate and colon, with ones for lung and stomach in the pipeline.
There are also three non-bespoke ones for infection: CMV, and flu' are for
viruses and there is so far one for a serious bacterial infection.
> It is quite rare to come up with a whole new way of treating a range of
diseases so, once again, there are no easy-to-find peer comparisons. If you
go back about 60 years, you could perhaps equate this to the penicillin's or
tetracycline antibiotics, or perhaps the beta-blockers for hypertension or
the benzodiazepines for anxiety in the 60's. All of these breakthroughs were
however shared a by several companies.
> On the takeover front, shareholders should remember that the major
shareholders, myself, Margaret, the Pru, USS etc think that the company is
potentially worth several billion. None of us need any money now and between
myself, Margaret the Pru and USS, we own around 57% of the company so a
hostile bid is unlikely to succeed unless it was worth onehellofalot! What
could happen is a big company takes a minority stake with an option to buy
us out a later date. This is what has just happened with Chiron and
Novartis. Even that sort of deal would have to be worth a lot up-front
because getting into bed with one big company would rule out any deals with
their rivals. We are not talking about a mere premium to the share price
here.
> I hope all this helps the shareholders understand where we are. These are
merely background notes and not our inermost strategic thoughts so I have no
problem with you introducing these thoughts into the debate
DB66
goldfinger
- 24 Nov 2005 12:50
- 1951 of 2444
Interesting read DB, looks rather like a Mike Walters piece.
cheers GF.
doughboy66
- 24 Nov 2005 13:24
- 1952 of 2444
Hi Goldfinger, its good to see a few buys starting to go through today after a period of a week or so of mostly sells.
DB66
049balt
- 24 Nov 2005 14:43
- 1953 of 2444
goldginger, i do not believe it is from Mike Walters.
gavinwood
- 24 Nov 2005 15:04
- 1954 of 2444
Confirm it is not Walters - it is posted on his sites discusion forum, but the source was the same - moneym4ker - 24 Nov'05 - 09:31 - 6657 of 6660 on ADVFN. The implication is that it is David Best but I have no idea of its authenticity.
mickeyskint
- 24 Nov 2005 16:31
- 1955 of 2444
Looks good to me I'm in long term anyway. EK needs to keep his finger on the pulse with this one, he's still short. Rather him that me.
MS
goldfinger
- 25 Nov 2005 01:48
- 1956 of 2444
David Best, interesting.
cheers GF.
mickeyskint
- 25 Nov 2005 09:05
- 1957 of 2444
GF
Could be a wind up/ramp, but does look and read real enough.
MS
mitzy
- 25 Nov 2005 11:51
- 1958 of 2444
It has to be DB...or someone pretending to be him .
moneyplus
- 25 Nov 2005 12:03
- 1959 of 2444
why post this way if it's DB-surely he would make an official announcement.
doughboy66
- 25 Nov 2005 13:07
- 1960 of 2444
The post has been removed from ADVFN Board for what reason i`m not sure ?
if it was because it was a ramp some people on these BB`s are going to be very busy pulling posts on a lot of other threads!
DB66