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I am also Green but a little later than your good self.

Scrip

A couple of hypothetical questions if i may:

1) as an example - Arsenal are playing Southampton and i back Arsenal for 100 at 1.6 prior to kick off. As expected after 10 minutes Arsenal take the lead and I choose to green up at 1.2. Then the unbelievable happens and Southampton equalise a few minutes later. Effectively, Arsenal are back trading at approx 1.6 - would you in this situation back Arsenal again and if so do you do so for your original stake or do you just use your profit or would you leave alone, protecting your earlier profit

2) i was trying to work out the relationship, in the football when the score is 0-0, between the price for next team to score and the potential profit if having backed the favourite you green up. this was brought to my attention in a german football game with low volume and the prices may have been a bit distorted. the home side were 1.9 to win and 1.7 to score the next goal. they duly scored after 10 minutes and their price dropped to approx 1.3 - now the profit here is clearly greater having backed them to score next rather than backing them to win and greening up ( i accept part of this is that they could go 1-0 down and come back to win). obviously if the goal was not scored until the 89th minute then the profit would be greater on backing and greening up than backing next goalscorer. In this case there must be a crossover point ie if the goal is scored in the first 65 min then you are better backing next scorer rather than the win and greening up. obviously there is an opportunity to play the two markets off against each other - is this something you use or have looked at?

"Then the unbelievable happens and Southampton equalise" - Yeah right, Unbelievable!!

I only look for the first goal because as the match progresses there is less chance of more goals. This is why the next goal is priced differently from the match odds.

Match odds discount the probability of any draw. Next goal only the possibility of a 0-0 so at the start of an average match next goal will discount around 8% for no goal and match odds around 25% for a draw at the end of 90 mins. As the match progresses the two diverge depending on how much time there is left and the goals scored.

At the start of a match therefore the next goal should always be higher than the match odds. But the liquidty on next goal is lower than match odds and there is no chance for a get out of jail card if it goes wrong.

I can work out the crossover points for all the odds and dependant odds in the market. I think I have mentioned them on this thread at some point. I have a model that does this very well.

I am working on a platform at the moment that will let you see all these odds project out future odds and trade from them real time. Not enough time left to the end of the season though to implement it properly but it will be ready by next season for sure.

Scrip

thanks for that - i thought you'd see the humour in my post - what with Crouch flying the great escape may be on - even sweeter if you drag pompey into the mix at the same time no doubt

We play Pompey in April as well, That will be one hell of a match! Its really a perm any three from four or possibly six at the bottom. God knows how it will end up but, obviously, I am hoping we stay up and Harry stays and we can see what unfolds next season.

Scrip

one thing for sure, if Harry hadnt come in when he did you were down - id like to see you stay up because im a big redknapp fan and thought the way pompey treated him a disgrace - i guess the derby wont be for for the faint hearted

i think that there both pompey and fulham are both going to get dragged in, though it only takes a couple of wins to get out again

Had a punt laid Blue Endevour in the first @ 1.24, Been out for a while and very short price. May back it in play.

Nearly came in there!!

Stewards enquiry but I don't think they will overturn it. Would be nice though!

Overturned! Unreal, that's the first time ever for me. Blue Endevour has been thrown out by the Stewards!!!

Stop gambling Scrip :-)

Forgive me father, for I have sinned. But it was worth it!!

Scrip

lol - i backed blue endeavour but layed in running at 1.02 so didnt have to rely on the stewards lol!!! if youre watching ATR theres a lot of unhappy punters out there who thought they could buy money - nice to know you gamble occasionally!

edited as got my back and lays nmixed

Rayshan :-) Layed and greened up in running though.

Pretty poor afternoon racing but made a few quid - thats me done for the day now

Yeah, It is a poor day. I was thinking of throwing in the towel as I have just sat here and not seen many clear opportunities.

Nice drifter in the last race at 17.45, which I nearly didn't bother waiting for. Caught it from 6.2 to 10/11 :-) Will it win do you think?

Fancy that, it didn't.

I just got my hands of an pretty heavy academic report on the prices of horses and the betting market. Basically the market is efficient and generally the price is most efficient just before the off. The movement in the market during the parade and before loading is reckoned to accurately modify the implied probability fairly well.

Just made a stupid amount of money on the 14:05 @ Chepstow. Don't know what happened there but everything just went the right way. (For once!)