Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Personally, I see Cable as a sell atm, hodgins. Just my opinion. Have you looked at the 1 hour chart?

heading down, get below horizontal support on hourly?

The Pound is very weak generally today. As well as being 1.5 Cents off against the Dollar, it's also 1 Cent off against the Euro.

It's a GBP bearishness scenario, rather than USD bullishness.

great call, pound didn't like the figures, only really watched here though.
G7/8 looms?

If cable can break 1.78, you can turn the lights out and go home imo.

I've got to say that I really don't understand this sometimes.

I'm short Cable and have been for a few days based upon the chart. However, when the price of oil started to consume all earlier in the summer, the USD weakened considerably across the board and the interest rate differential was brushed aside. Now though, oil is hitting fresh highs and yet the oil part of the equation seems to be being ignored as the Dollar strengthens. Why?

The only conclusion that I can draw is that it simply shows just how fickle the market actually is.

Covered my Cable short and reversed. See where that goes over the next few days.

What a naff entry.

:o(

BULLET: EURO-DOLLAR: One trader asserting that the USD is....
EURO-DOLLAR: One trader asserting that the USD is getting some lift from the recent reported Fed Gov. comments suggesting higher rates could be ahead in the US. Euro has slipped to around $1.2275 on the news but trader doesnamp;apos;t think we see the morning lows again today, at least not until late in the session. Thinks some of the decent bids under $1.2250 that supported earlier amp;quot;may have reloaded.amp;quot;

Provided by: Market News International

From the Sundays:

"Pressure for another interest rate rise will mount this week with the release of economic data which suggests Britain's consumer spending boom is far from over."

Morning, Hil.

I still think that consumer spending is somewhat disconnected from the MLR. The MLR rises have had their effect on the housing market, where mortgage rates are close-coupled to MLR. Consumer spending is a function of easy credit from plastic, where the rates bear an indirect connection at best with MLR.

In the 1970s, the Heath government took action to raise minimum payments on credit card debt to attempt to curb consumer spending (yes, I am that old).

Derek,

Who knows whether the MPC are really concerned about consumer debt levels? Probably only the MPC members themselves.

This game is not what the MPC thinks, but rather it's about what the market thinks and, this week, it seems to be convenient for the market to consider high levels of consumer spending within the overall interest rate differential equation. The GBP is going up atm and it's a case of "fitting" the news to the chart.

Next week it may be appropriate or necessary to apply a different spin to the same news. That's because the market is always right.

:o)

Incidentally, I do think that consumer debt is important. Zero rate finance does not stimulate economic growth and simply bankrupts economies. Vis-a-vis Japan.

My thoughts are not important though.

:o)

Au contraire, Hil, I hang on your every word :)

Yes, consumer debt is important -- you can make a case that unsecured consumer debt is a much greater risk to the economy than debt secured on physical assets.

I agree with you about the market always being right -- I'm an old-fashioned Thatcherite myself.

9:30 data just goes to emphasise that financial journos really are clueless gonks.

John Hardy saying that the European currencies are in their tightest range against the Dollar in 30 years. Also interesting to note the comment from State Street earlier this week that rangebound FX trading these last few months was impacting profits.

Hourly horizontal resistance about here and still under most recent downtrend.
Breakout or pullback. To be revealed at 1.30? Tiny short, if wrong will cut quickly, if right to add.

Tonights diinner out paid for but not adding to position.

Daily Forex Technicals (19/10/2004)


10/19/04DailyFX.com FX Technicals


Euro test multi-month highs as oscillators strive for overbought
Yen GMT daily drafts multi-hammer/doji combo at key S (200-day SMA)-
oscillators oversold

EUR/USD - The pair made a brief foray above the sizable R (1.2500/15)we cited
yesterday; however, price has since retraced considerably, findingsupport at
the daily pivot (S1) in the vicinity of 1.2460 late in the Asia session.Rumors
of sell orders floated across the wires following the run up, notingthe usual
suspects. The orders came in around 1400 GMT and were labeled exitorders
on the offer.
Going forward, sizable R is camped at out at the previous sessions
open,which coincides the 61.8% retracement of the all time high and subsequent
low(1.2485). Notably, the GMT candle from the previous session has drafted a
shootingstar; with the wicks upper reaches straying outside both of the
regressionchannels we outlined yesterday. Given the price action, we
confidently reaffirmour assessment of the support side scenario.
The first level of support is eyed at Fridays breaking point (1.2415/30)-
as the ascending near term regression line comes into play here as well. Inthe
event of a breakdown of the 1.2400 handle, the 50% retracement (1.2345),coupled
with the near-term channels ascending lower band (1.2365) couldbe a
primary target for dollar bulls; with a likely secondary target at thenear
confluence of the 100, 200-day SMA and 100-day EMA (1.2220/45), ensconcinglast
weeks spike lows.

USD/JPY - A bullish tone seems to have taken solid footing via a litanyof
bullish candles straddling the major support line - just as oscillators
sproutfrom oversold. The 200-day SMA has been fingered as the main tributary of
thesupport line, and the level also coincides with a multi-year Fib level
(76.4%of 10/99 - 101.30 to 2/02 - 135.26). see chart - .pdf only
Following the momentous drop from the double top spanning 9/28-10/6, GMT
candleshave formed: a morning star, hammer, spinning top, a double hammer then
finallyyesterdays doji. The largest hammer on 10/15 making a spike low
throughthe omnipotent 200-day multi-month barrier. The action corresponds a
deeplyoversold, yet recouping, RSI (42.29), MACD histogram (-0.21) and
Stochasticoscillators (16.34). The amalgamation of candles, MAs and
oscillatorslead us to infer a move higher is looming. The first level of
encouragementfor the bid comes in at a breach of last weeks highs coupled
with themonthly pivot (P1 - 110.20), with the September spike highs thereafter
(111.50/65).The inference is negated on a close below 10/15 spike lows
(108.75).

GBP/USD - As we noted yesterday, Another terrific opportunityto
take the GBP/USD lower has presented itself, as the H&S formation hasyet
again been validated by recent price action., and now more
thanever, the H&S formation is quite clear - coming to complete fruition
afterfailing the previous shoulders spike highs yesterday.
The completion of the formation was accompanied by some volatility however,most
likely due in part to the difficulty traders experienced in judging thesecond
shoulders true top. The volatility implies many decided toexit
during the fall - happy to escape at break-even on this missed entry.
The 23.6% retracement (1.8060) encompassing the H&S formation remains
theprimary focus for sellers and those chasing the move. Trades above
Fridaysspike high will bring the top end of the formation (1.8160)
squarely into focus- negating the H&S but offering a double top to
sidelined bears eyeing theominous formation; failure to trade above the 1.8060
however renders the H&Sformation in tact by the book.
On the support side of things, the offer will be focusing on the confluenceof
the 50% and 20-day SMA/200-day EMA (1.7940/60), with the 61.8 and 10/12-13spike
lows (1.7830/45) subsequent to that.

USD/CHF - After drafting a morning doji on the GMT daily chart justbelow the
monthly pivot (S1), RSI (36.25), MACD histogram (-0.002) and
Stochs(10.04) have managed to wiggle under respective oversold regions;
while intradaystudies support the indication - offering considerable
self-affinity. The firstR comes in at the Aug lows (1.2385) with Sept lows
(1.2460) subsequent to that.Perhaps most intriguing is the fact that the ADX
has been washing below 15,reading as low as 9, currently at 12.5 - indicating
no trend is present. Thisleaves many astute traders to imply a range still
exists and this move is afake-out.


Chart of the Day:EUR/AUD Daily

Comment from 09/23
The clear breakout above 7300 now gives a clearly positive outlook to the
pair.Bulls will probably consider 7240/7280 in order to exploit the 100 SMA,
formerbreakout pt now S and 38.2% Fibo from the Jun - Jul bear wave. The bottom
ofthe former range is also to keep in mind for the bulls (6850/6900) since
thearea benefits from a decent Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Sep 03 -
Apr04 bear wave & 76.4% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave). Bears do not
havethe upper hand for now but they will certainly keep in mind 7750/7800 in
orderto exploit the High BB and 61.8% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave.

10/18
7240/7280 did not offer much support but turned out to be a good R after
itbroke. The market then fell to the 6804 low on 10/11 (slightly below our
6850/6900S zone) and bounced to yesterdays high at 7093 - 289pts higher.
Todaythe outlook is clearly bearish and bears will try to add in the 7170/7230
zonein order to exploit the 50 SMA and 38.2% Fibo from the Jun - Jul bear
wave.Bulls will have to play reversals and 6750/6800 will be their main focus
thanksto the Low BB and a decent Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Apr - Jun
bullwave & 38.2% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Apr 04 bear wave). A breakout
belowwould then expose 6350 (bears would then sell on bounces). Bears will also
keepin mind 7800.sible at 6850/6900 thanks to the High BB. If the area breaks,
bullswill add on dips and target 7100 which is the former swing high.