The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Kellman,
If Pet does get the third contract, the price might well rocket. The question is why should it? The contract is a construction contract worth, maybe, 130M. Pet would be the managing contractor, but the cash, expertise and hardware would come from elsewhere. What would Pet's (eventual) profit be? How about the risks and the costs associated with mitigating that risk?
Is Pet a constructor or an explorer?

iturama:
agree with you completely. That's what so annoying about posters. Most seemingly have scant knowledge of business. A contract worth 150mio could have a potential margin of say 10% in Pet's case, or 15mio at the most.

The rest is jam tomorrow, ie good will for turning the contract into risk sharing etc etc etc, but that where the Iraqi unknowns come into play - highly risky play imo.

So even with the S&L contract, a quick calculation on the back of an envelope would show that current market cap is fully factored in and the sp would probably drift sideways at best.

Any idea as to why the 5p rise in the last hour or so plus buys now outweighing the sells by 59/40.. I would hate to be the last to get to see any news once again.. especially when PET haven't issued any since the freefall last week.

level to is good WINS is filling a big buy order too Chrispine, from cw on other side

Thanks gra1969.

Tokyo - hope you didnt mean this 'Saying all that I'd be equally as glad to find out this was a hoax and see the SP jump back to over a pound' lots of people have lost thousands maybe millions of pounds because of this so called 'hoax'. For someone that posts such intelligent comments i hope this was just a one off abberation. If it does turn out to be wrong we all need to get together and sue them!

I dont mind losing money fairly and always new it was high risk play. I personally think they have lost the contracts and they know it. Would love to see the share dealing accounts of those 'in the know' at PET. There should be a big investigation into this, because most of us can smell a big rat.

I don't thing you could sue them if you had spreadbets.

Petrel awaits news from Baghdad
It seems political expediency may have outgunned Dublin-based Petrel Resources in the bidding for the Khurmala Dome and Hamrin oilfield redevelopment projects in Iraq. John Teeling, Petrels executive chairman, said the company has yet to receive any word from the Iraqi oil ministry on the status of the Khurmala and Hamrin tenders but many industry watchers believe the ministry came under pressure to award the projects to companies with Islamic connections.

Press reports suggest the Khurmala oilfield development contract has been awarded to Turkish company Everasia and Hamrin to IOG, a Canadian company with Middle East connections.

If confirmed, the reports will prove a blow to Petrel, which has spent seven years developing its position in the troubled Middle Eastern country. It stuck with Iraq through the difficult years of sanctions and the chaos of the 2003 war and its bloody aftermath.

Two thousand and four was shaping up to be a year of real progress for Petrel in Iraq: it submitted plans to develop the Khurmala Dome, Hamrin and the Subba/Luhais oilfields in Iraq, which together could hold in excess of 2 billion barrels. The Subba/Luhais project in southern Iraq envisaged daily production of 200,000 barrels while Khurmala, in the Kirkuk area in the north of Iraq, and Hamrin in central Iraq, were each targeted to produce in excess of 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

Over the summer, there were detailed technical discussions with the oil ministry to clarify and fine-tune the engineering detail of the bids. Then, in September, the management was summoned to Baghdad for an urgent and direct discussion to finalise all technical and commercial matters. All the signals were that Petrel was in the running for the projects until now.

All is not lost, however, should the press reports prove accurate: there is still plenty for Petrel to aim at in this vast, oil-rich nation. Iraq has known resources of 115 billion barrels, a number that could be a mere fraction of the actual resource base; much of the country remains unexplored at surface and at depth.
Moreover, the award of the Subba/Luhais oilfield redevelopment project, which is, in Teelings words, the biggest and the best of the three tenders, has yet to be announced and, as Teeling points out, there are 66 other projects on the books in Baghdad.

The company also holds exploration rights to a large tranche of acreage in Iraqs little explored Western Desert. While this work remains off-limits in the current political and security situation, Petrel has taken steps to cement its geological understanding of the region by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the Jordanian authorities for the East Safawi block just over the Jordanian/Iraqi border. The East Safawi block lies on an extension to the petroleum targets being studied by Petrel in Iraq and the MoU can be converted, following discussion, to an exploration licence after six months. Much of the seismic and well core data from the Iraqi side was destroyed during the 2003 war but Petrel will now be able to access geological data from the Jordanian desert. This work is due to start in January.

Despite the current uncertainty, Petrel remains committed to its Iraq strategy and the directors stress that it is possible to work and operate there.
I visited Iraq eight times before the 2003 war, and nine times since, said managing director David Horgan in September. We have experienced no insuperable difficulties or even discourtesy from any faction.
Now all that remains is for the company to be awarded a project to work on there.
[ oilbarrel 21/12/04.

Kivver - don't get me wrong I was NOT saying that I hoped it was a hoax, I was explaining my reasons why I was out at the moment, but I hoped that the people who had stayed in got rewarded as I hate to see anyone losing money. Like you I think the 1st 2 tenders are lost as the above article would also suggest, but my comment was again saying I don't mind losing out on profit this time, if it means the rest of you guys can make a huge profit or at least come away even

I am confused , when it was said it would double on news of one contract, was it meant, double in price to what it was then or what it is now or what it will be when the news breaks????.........This is far too confusing for my brain I think Ill take my children off to Christmas shopping. See you all next year, but before I go

I would like to wish All who post on this thread the very best of seasonal greetings, may we become what we desire most and have no need to gorge on lexicography .
Remember:
A Pet is for life, not just for Christmas!!!!
AF

I know im a holder so dont crucitfy me when you read this, but someone posted on the other side that Mr Blair has gone over to be there when the Pet contract Announcement is made!!!!! now even i dont believe that!

Quite right not to.

PET is Irish!

Blair is English representing the UK, and unless there has been an invasion, Ireland is still a Republic!

Val Doonican is rumoured on his way though!

(joke, lol!)

No offence meant!

lol lol lol lol!

At this stage it doesn't matter who goes once we get some sort of possitive news

gra1969 - seen where you got it from now.

Sorry, this thought is plainly ridiculous for reasons given above.

Blair is simply not interested in Irish concerns, they have their own people for that!

Nice thought though.

yeah, it did make me laugh!

Tokyo - thanks for clearing that up but many thousands including myself have sold up at a great loss due that reuters statement. Peoples livelihoods are at stake here. The whole thing has been handled terribly by both sides but particularly the Iraqi side. All credit to all those who are still bullish and ready to dive back in again. In my opinion you must be mad 'once burnt twice shy', but good luck to you!

What could this mean for PET?

Blair makes surprise Iraq trip
Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:49 AM GMT
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By Mike Peacock
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair has made a surprise first visit to Baghdad amidst intense security and hailed officials orchestrating Iraq's January elections as heroes.

In an act of political bravado, Blair flew into the centre of Baghdad on Tuesday saying he wanted to send a strong signal of backing for the election despite an upsurge in bloodshed and Sunday's killing of three Iraqi Electoral Commission officials.

As well as seeing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, Blair, whose ratings have sunk over his strong alliance with the United States over Iraq, met top U.S. officials in Baghdad and election commission members.

"I said to them that I thought that they were the heroes of the new Iraq that's being created, because here are people who are risking their lives every day in order to make sure that the people of Iraq get a chance to decide their own destiny," Blair told a joint news conference with Allawi.

Blair said the election would go ahead as planned.

"Whatever people felt about the original conflict, we the British aren't a nation of quitters," Blair said. "What's very obvious to me is that the Iraqi people here, they're not going to quit on this task either. They're going to see it through."

AIDES IN FLACK JACKETS

Blair acknowledged the dangers and challenges of staging Iraq's elections which he said represented an "important blow for democracy everywhere." He said electoral officials lived "in fear of their life every day."

Blair's aides looked nervous in flak jackets while U.S. Black Hawk helicopters shadowed him into central Baghdad.

Twin suicide car bombings on Monday killed 66 people in Iraq's Shi'ite holy cities, attacks that intensified fears of sectarian violence during elections set for January 30.

The Green Zone, once Saddam Hussein's former presidential compound and now home to the British and U.S. embassies, is a target for frequent attacks by insurgents.

When U.S. President George W. Bush visited troops for Thanksgiving in November 2003 he stayed at the more heavily defended Baghdad International Airport military base and word of his visit was only released after his plane was back in the air.

A week ago, two suicide car bombers in as many days struck the same entrance to the sprawling Green Zone on the west bank of the Tigris in central Baghdad. Mortars typically strike the zone several times a week.

"Everybody's surprised and happy that Blair's coming," a spokesman for Allawi said. "We think it is very important."

Perhaps the question should be, "Why is Blair out of the country when the news is dominated by the Blunket affair?"

WT