Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Au contraire, Hil, I hang on your every word :)

Yes, consumer debt is important -- you can make a case that unsecured consumer debt is a much greater risk to the economy than debt secured on physical assets.

I agree with you about the market always being right -- I'm an old-fashioned Thatcherite myself.

9:30 data just goes to emphasise that financial journos really are clueless gonks.

John Hardy saying that the European currencies are in their tightest range against the Dollar in 30 years. Also interesting to note the comment from State Street earlier this week that rangebound FX trading these last few months was impacting profits.

Hourly horizontal resistance about here and still under most recent downtrend.
Breakout or pullback. To be revealed at 1.30? Tiny short, if wrong will cut quickly, if right to add.

Tonights diinner out paid for but not adding to position.

Daily Forex Technicals (19/10/2004)


10/19/04DailyFX.com FX Technicals


Euro test multi-month highs as oscillators strive for overbought
Yen GMT daily drafts multi-hammer/doji combo at key S (200-day SMA)-
oscillators oversold

EUR/USD - The pair made a brief foray above the sizable R (1.2500/15)we cited
yesterday; however, price has since retraced considerably, findingsupport at
the daily pivot (S1) in the vicinity of 1.2460 late in the Asia session.Rumors
of sell orders floated across the wires following the run up, notingthe usual
suspects. The orders came in around 1400 GMT and were labeled exitorders
on the offer.
Going forward, sizable R is camped at out at the previous sessions
open,which coincides the 61.8% retracement of the all time high and subsequent
low(1.2485). Notably, the GMT candle from the previous session has drafted a
shootingstar; with the wicks upper reaches straying outside both of the
regressionchannels we outlined yesterday. Given the price action, we
confidently reaffirmour assessment of the support side scenario.
The first level of support is eyed at Fridays breaking point (1.2415/30)-
as the ascending near term regression line comes into play here as well. Inthe
event of a breakdown of the 1.2400 handle, the 50% retracement (1.2345),coupled
with the near-term channels ascending lower band (1.2365) couldbe a
primary target for dollar bulls; with a likely secondary target at thenear
confluence of the 100, 200-day SMA and 100-day EMA (1.2220/45), ensconcinglast
weeks spike lows.

USD/JPY - A bullish tone seems to have taken solid footing via a litanyof
bullish candles straddling the major support line - just as oscillators
sproutfrom oversold. The 200-day SMA has been fingered as the main tributary of
thesupport line, and the level also coincides with a multi-year Fib level
(76.4%of 10/99 - 101.30 to 2/02 - 135.26). see chart - .pdf only
Following the momentous drop from the double top spanning 9/28-10/6, GMT
candleshave formed: a morning star, hammer, spinning top, a double hammer then
finallyyesterdays doji. The largest hammer on 10/15 making a spike low
throughthe omnipotent 200-day multi-month barrier. The action corresponds a
deeplyoversold, yet recouping, RSI (42.29), MACD histogram (-0.21) and
Stochasticoscillators (16.34). The amalgamation of candles, MAs and
oscillatorslead us to infer a move higher is looming. The first level of
encouragementfor the bid comes in at a breach of last weeks highs coupled
with themonthly pivot (P1 - 110.20), with the September spike highs thereafter
(111.50/65).The inference is negated on a close below 10/15 spike lows
(108.75).

GBP/USD - As we noted yesterday, Another terrific opportunityto
take the GBP/USD lower has presented itself, as the H&S formation hasyet
again been validated by recent price action., and now more
thanever, the H&S formation is quite clear - coming to complete fruition
afterfailing the previous shoulders spike highs yesterday.
The completion of the formation was accompanied by some volatility however,most
likely due in part to the difficulty traders experienced in judging thesecond
shoulders true top. The volatility implies many decided toexit
during the fall - happy to escape at break-even on this missed entry.
The 23.6% retracement (1.8060) encompassing the H&S formation remains
theprimary focus for sellers and those chasing the move. Trades above
Fridaysspike high will bring the top end of the formation (1.8160)
squarely into focus- negating the H&S but offering a double top to
sidelined bears eyeing theominous formation; failure to trade above the 1.8060
however renders the H&Sformation in tact by the book.
On the support side of things, the offer will be focusing on the confluenceof
the 50% and 20-day SMA/200-day EMA (1.7940/60), with the 61.8 and 10/12-13spike
lows (1.7830/45) subsequent to that.

USD/CHF - After drafting a morning doji on the GMT daily chart justbelow the
monthly pivot (S1), RSI (36.25), MACD histogram (-0.002) and
Stochs(10.04) have managed to wiggle under respective oversold regions;
while intradaystudies support the indication - offering considerable
self-affinity. The firstR comes in at the Aug lows (1.2385) with Sept lows
(1.2460) subsequent to that.Perhaps most intriguing is the fact that the ADX
has been washing below 15,reading as low as 9, currently at 12.5 - indicating
no trend is present. Thisleaves many astute traders to imply a range still
exists and this move is afake-out.


Chart of the Day:EUR/AUD Daily

Comment from 09/23
The clear breakout above 7300 now gives a clearly positive outlook to the
pair.Bulls will probably consider 7240/7280 in order to exploit the 100 SMA,
formerbreakout pt now S and 38.2% Fibo from the Jun - Jul bear wave. The bottom
ofthe former range is also to keep in mind for the bulls (6850/6900) since
thearea benefits from a decent Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Sep 03 -
Apr04 bear wave & 76.4% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave). Bears do not
havethe upper hand for now but they will certainly keep in mind 7750/7800 in
orderto exploit the High BB and 61.8% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave.

10/18
7240/7280 did not offer much support but turned out to be a good R after
itbroke. The market then fell to the 6804 low on 10/11 (slightly below our
6850/6900S zone) and bounced to yesterdays high at 7093 - 289pts higher.
Todaythe outlook is clearly bearish and bears will try to add in the 7170/7230
zonein order to exploit the 50 SMA and 38.2% Fibo from the Jun - Jul bear
wave.Bulls will have to play reversals and 6750/6800 will be their main focus
thanksto the Low BB and a decent Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Apr - Jun
bullwave & 38.2% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Apr 04 bear wave). A breakout
belowwould then expose 6350 (bears would then sell on bounces). Bears will also
keepin mind 7800.sible at 6850/6900 thanks to the High BB. If the area breaks,
bullswill add on dips and target 7100 which is the former swing high.

cable looks to be putting in a lower high on 15 mins

short Dec (BPZ4) @ 1.8014

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
The British pound broke out to the upside as it piggybacked the euro's gains. The pair's upward momentum is clearly driven by dollar weakness. The minutes from the Bank of England's October 6-7 monetary policy meeting indicated that the monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged at 4.75%. Interestingly enough, they noted that they were surprised by the weakness in the pound. The larger than expected decline probably raises marginal concern about inflationary pressures. They also portrayed concern about the recent rise in oil prices. Although they do not expect oil prices "to persist in full," they did warn that the risks to growth are still "substantial." At this point, we remain convinced that the Bank of England will not be raising rates again this year. Tomorrow, we are expecting retail sales. They are expected to be flat with downside risk given the recent slowdown in housing prices and increase in gasoline prices, both of which could potentially crimp consumer spending.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
[19:17 GMT October 20] GBP/USD overcame what many thought were insurmountable
hurdles today, blasting as high as 1.8190 before finally pausing for breath.
Heavy stops were tripped above 1.8120/30 and again above 1.8165 (the September
28 high) on the rally. The move was mostly technical in nature, dealers note,
but the surge in oil prices after US oil inventory data helped push US yields
lower and the dollar lower. EUR/GBP staged a reversal today, helping give cable
a lift as well. Heavy stops were hit below the 0.6930/35 support level, setting
up an outside day on the charts.
Pre-election jitters are playing a role in the recent bout of USD weakness.
The election is cause for concern on two fronts: One, on the terrorism front as
many fear a Madrid-style attack to disrupt the voting and two, on the potential
for a Florida-style legal challenge if the election is close in that peculiar US
institution, the Electoral College. Legal challenges are already being mounted,
as chronicled on the front-page of today's Washington Post.
1.8155/65 is support now on dips. Central bank offers are rumored at 1.8200.

isn't anyone playing euro.....

SM

closed short Euro/Yen :-)

Been short cable from Tuesday morning. Staying short for now.

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
The British pound continued to slide for the second consecutive day as the dollar recouped some of its recent losses. This morning we received further evidence that home loan approvals fell for the third month in a row. Higher interest rates and falling property valuations have all been signs of the gradual deflation that is occurring in the housing market bubble. The trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon. Tomorrow, we are expecting the GfK Consumer Confidence survey. Confidence is expected to remain depressed with the risk of worsening given the deteriorating global outlook.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
[19:47 GMT October 26] Asian central banks continue to cap GBP/USD toward
1.8450. The failure to break higher overnight left the market vulnerable to a
pullback and that vulnerability was exploited after the CBI orders index plunged
from -6 to -12 in September. 1.8350/55 contained the initial dip before another
selloff commenced near the London close after German chancellor Schroeder warned
over the strong EUR. 1.8335 was the low.
BOE rate expectations continue to ebb and flow, but the latest data and
comments from the BOE seem to indicate that another hike next week is unlikely.
More evidence will come on Thursday as Nationwide's October housing survey is
due for release.
The market looks like it is set to trim USD shorts in the next few days,
having priced in an eventful US election season. One sign of that came from
GBP/USD's inability to rally after weaker than expected US consumer confidence.
Bids are seen on dips to 1.8315/20 while stops lie just below. Offers now are
at 1.8425/30. --Jamie.Coleman@thomson.com/rs

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
After such an extended sell-off over the past two weeks, the dollar has been begging for a reason to rally. The surprisingly higher than expected crude stock report released from the Energy Department this morning provided a fundamentally justified cause for dollar bulls to latch onto. With oil being one of the major culprits for slowing growth globally, the first piece of substantially good news from the industry allowed the entire market to breathe easier, with oil prices puling back almost $3 a barrel. However optimism is likely to be short-lived as demand will rise into the winter season. Focusing more on the euro itself, ECB member Weber did acknowledge that there have been discussions about whether the euro's rise has been driven by fundamentals and so far he attributes the rise to the US' growing current account deficit and "inflexible" currencies in Asia. However, red flags have not been raised high yet as Portugal's Constancio, who is also an ECB member said that the euro's rise has been gradual. If you recall, in late 2003 / early 2004, there were a lot of complaints and concerns from EU and ECB officials about the euro's rally. Yet it was not until ECB President Trichet warned about the "brutal moves" did the euro top out at 1.2930. Thus far, Trichet has declined to talk about the currency's movements or show any signs of concern.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
[20:01 GMT 26th October] EUR/USD lost some ground in the US today, dipping to
1.2735 as dealers trimmed longs. The tip off was the failure of EUR/USD to
sustain gains after US consumer confidence dipped to 92.8 versus market
forecasts for a decline to 94.0. Rumors during the morning of a slide to 90.0
took the steam out of the news. German chancellor Schroeder helped things along,
firing the first warning shot across the market's bow, saying the EUR rate was a
reason for concern. Stops were tripped after Asian central bank bids at 1.2770 were filled in
after the Schroeder comments. The Asians were buying back EUR/USD sold to
protect 1.2850 barriers. European buyers are seen at 1.2725 with larger bids
seen toward 1.2680/1.2700 (where New York left EUR/USD on Friday afternoon). The 1.2770 area is now attracting a few offers after having been support for
much of the past two sessions. 1.2850 remains the near-term topside target
followed by the 1.2930 pinnacle but in place back in February. --
Jamie.Coleman@thomson.com/rs

Been evaluating FXCM, very nice fast front end and good charts. Using 50K demo ago, find Forex pairs trading seems to be a good way to make and lose money very quickly. Still have another 3 weeks of demo to run, so will see how much I end up with in my account and decide if its with opening a real account.

Does anyone else here use FXCM, what do you think of their package and pairs trading in general.

also short cable as I think the $ will strengthen after the US election (I hope I'm right as I seem to be at odds with the analysts!!)

Not sure what caused the dollar to spike up like that, but I covered my cable short into it.

:o)

That was a nice 70 point scalp,scanning the news trying to find what caused the spike.

Footsie dropped just before spike up and dollar strength now in line with footsie weakness. News out of China coincided

well done all who caught that spike..

SM