Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

Click HERE to visit me at FXtechnicals.net

You can perhaps also see why its easy to stray from the trading plan. If i'm so sure it is purely corrective, why don't i just go short the Euro now?!
Maybe with a bit more experience i will work out when it is right to do so, but the variations available to the market make it very difficult to be certain. Over-trading almost always creeps in.
As it is i want to concentrate on the 4th/5th trades and maybe limit trying a wave 1/2 trade to every now and then.

*Edit* somehow the apparent 3w move up was wrong... hindsight shows us it has to be impulsive and thus a 5w move. Utterly ridiculous, but again, that's probably why i should just stick to the system. It also means it wasn't a 5w move short and a larger ABC itself. Nobody said this was easy. Nice move this afternoon.

Right, lets keep in mind the bigger picture. Previously posted, i was expecting the ABC (as an 'X' wave), and then higher to come. The market successfully shook me out of being prepared for the move. Once again, it uses the boredom/stealth combo.

Malodyets mr.Market.

Post 181



smaller scale (showing X wave to be a WXY move) and subsequent breakout;



I've been saying for several days now, time to look long on the Euro pairs. Need to get the acceleration channel sorted, to be able to judge pullbacks...

Hmmm post 183. The ABC ('X' wave) is broken down to the above WXY move;

Having missed todays fun, i find myself now with the puzzle of that 3 wave move up yesterday afternoon (15:00), it does point to this being corrective, within our recent downtrend. Could we be in a larger 'X' wave? I wont be joining in the fun just yet until i can work this out. To be fair, that is the safety of the system i described earlier. I simply don't think trying to hold for the bigger moves is for me. Most people concentrate on number of pips bagged. For me its all about percentages. You can make the same money (and have similar risk) with a target of 100 pips or just 10. I would rather miss a whole load of PA in order to be able to trade confidently in a direction for just a small distance. Anyway, this is whats worrying me... as i said... that 3w move makes me now think that this move this afternoon is corrective;



I will be the first to acknowledge that i have covered both directions and thus my point... Ok, i have missed this rise, but all i want is to recognise 3rd waves on much smaller scales!

Possibility, but i think wave C was def in 5... so not so keen...

Ok, gonna put this out there and make it obvious that this view could change with further PA, however, Euro; here is why i think that's your lot (or thereabouts) for upside (for now) Earlier i expressed problem with the upswing starting with a 3w move, this move therefore is 'C' of a further X wave (imo). I also think that Cable has only completed one leg down so far and thus needs to do another set;



and the euro wont diverge massively in the opposite direction to Cable, so it backs up my X wave call. Maybe dollar strength will be back for a short blast? Little bout of risk off for a mo? Ok, well, bear in mind this is just an overall plan, so lets see if we can validate it.

Above, does however conflict with the wedge on Cable daily. Catching these big moves is certainly tricky.



So the alternative bullish count for Euro is;



Tomorrows action will reveal enough i think, strange that it appears to have reacted exactly at the 161.8% level on prev chart though... Gonna stick with shorter term movements.

I won't update the FTSE any more. It simply hardly ever trends well with EW and hence i don't trade it. Any attempt to label it must be over confidence on my part! It may be worth keeping an eye open for a set of channels though. Could be some already;



Incredible how your thoughts chop and change along with PA. My outlook at the turn of the year was bullish everything (to get long on Yen pairs/Euro pairs) and bullish about the markets even if i don't trade them, (from post 186, 7th Jan; 'Right now i am biased long on the Euro, the Yen pairs, the Audi, Kiwi, markets.... yep just about everything...'

Somehow holding for anything longer than a few hours simply doesn't suit my style and so getting positioned for such moves as yesterday (Euro pairs) will require a change of tact. Fast moves come with little warning, usually after days of boring grind.
To be fair, this is a marathon, not a sprint and i know i need to concentrate on the system i highlighted yesterday. I've traded three set-ups so far this week and each one was a winner. I have also taken four other trades of various phases/styles and lost on each of those... the answer is right there staring at me!

One quick chart possibility for the Euro, but i think its time to tone it down with regards to predictions. As the analyst posted in that link i provided yesterday, sometimes by posting such analysis, you make a rod for your own back so to speak. Its time to find those 4th wave set-ups and ignore everything else. Becoming a successful trader requires much more than to know what you are doing! It means very little if your execution is poor, or discipline is lacking....



Good luck whatever your trading, but don't fight the trend!

One more;

Just a little extra work on above;

Awesome charts last couple of days, (i missed entry yet again!);

Valid trigger on a flag trade to end the week with, time for a beer;

The easiest wave to recognise is the 3rd. If it doesn't extend (not more than 161.8% of wave 1), look for a great low risk wave 4 trade. Use channel lines off of 0&2 replicated off of 1 to indicate likely support for 4. Then try to tie in the 38.2% retracement. Stop is a couple pips inside wave 1 territory (be mindful you're not in a 'C' wave in case of a diagonal cross over). With wave 5 to come we can also project likely targets. I also combine a flag trading system which if triggered adds to the picture to make it a very high probability trade. remember, its not about pips, its all about percentages. 3% each trade regardless if its 200 pip target or 20pips. Why wait for days for a set-up, they happen several times a day on small timescales...

Its possible to use channel lines for a further target, if you can follow the wave structure. Connect 2&4, then replicate parallel off of 1 for likely end of 5);




*Edit* Its a little later on and it kept dropping. It might still be an extended 5th, with a throwover (you can also replicate the lower TL off of the peak of wave 3), but looking far more likely to label it a WXY move. The point is that after the breach of the last HL (on prev chart) it confirms trend down. I missed entry to this trade on this occasion (whilst on me turbo trainer), so am cursing! Right then... look for next one.

Euro is looking corrective. Couple of counts that look valid right now;



or poss;



Or, we could be in a further 'X' wave of a larger WXYXZ move, though i find those rare. I prefer the first chart. Look at how in the second set ('Y' wave) the 'B' subwave reacts to the fib levels.
I will wait for (hopefully) a valid flag trigger on the way up...

A possible monthly view for Cable;



and more, speculative, but recently a potential end of the wedge;

Euro little bit of up first;



Followed by a lot of down;

Hi Davia, whats you take on the EUR/GBP pair? More strength or upper channel hit and should now weaken. I'm thinking now might make an entry point for a shot play..

Hi Shortie, i will get back to you on it later. You had to pick one i don't watch! I don't usually find it easy to interpret, but will run a ruler over it in a bit. Just waiting on a couple of other set ups for now...

Thank you Davai, much appreciated...