Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
After such an extended sell-off over the past two weeks, the dollar has been begging for a reason to rally. The surprisingly higher than expected crude stock report released from the Energy Department this morning provided a fundamentally justified cause for dollar bulls to latch onto. With oil being one of the major culprits for slowing growth globally, the first piece of substantially good news from the industry allowed the entire market to breathe easier, with oil prices puling back almost $3 a barrel. However optimism is likely to be short-lived as demand will rise into the winter season. Focusing more on the euro itself, ECB member Weber did acknowledge that there have been discussions about whether the euro's rise has been driven by fundamentals and so far he attributes the rise to the US' growing current account deficit and "inflexible" currencies in Asia. However, red flags have not been raised high yet as Portugal's Constancio, who is also an ECB member said that the euro's rise has been gradual. If you recall, in late 2003 / early 2004, there were a lot of complaints and concerns from EU and ECB officials about the euro's rally. Yet it was not until ECB President Trichet warned about the "brutal moves" did the euro top out at 1.2930. Thus far, Trichet has declined to talk about the currency's movements or show any signs of concern.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
[20:01 GMT 26th October] EUR/USD lost some ground in the US today, dipping to
1.2735 as dealers trimmed longs. The tip off was the failure of EUR/USD to
sustain gains after US consumer confidence dipped to 92.8 versus market
forecasts for a decline to 94.0. Rumors during the morning of a slide to 90.0
took the steam out of the news. German chancellor Schroeder helped things along,
firing the first warning shot across the market's bow, saying the EUR rate was a
reason for concern. Stops were tripped after Asian central bank bids at 1.2770 were filled in
after the Schroeder comments. The Asians were buying back EUR/USD sold to
protect 1.2850 barriers. European buyers are seen at 1.2725 with larger bids
seen toward 1.2680/1.2700 (where New York left EUR/USD on Friday afternoon). The 1.2770 area is now attracting a few offers after having been support for
much of the past two sessions. 1.2850 remains the near-term topside target
followed by the 1.2930 pinnacle but in place back in February. --
Jamie.Coleman@thomson.com/rs

Been evaluating FXCM, very nice fast front end and good charts. Using 50K demo ago, find Forex pairs trading seems to be a good way to make and lose money very quickly. Still have another 3 weeks of demo to run, so will see how much I end up with in my account and decide if its with opening a real account.

Does anyone else here use FXCM, what do you think of their package and pairs trading in general.

also short cable as I think the $ will strengthen after the US election (I hope I'm right as I seem to be at odds with the analysts!!)

Not sure what caused the dollar to spike up like that, but I covered my cable short into it.

:o)

That was a nice 70 point scalp,scanning the news trying to find what caused the spike.

Footsie dropped just before spike up and dollar strength now in line with footsie weakness. News out of China coincided

well done all who caught that spike..

SM

dscott....use FXCM love it

can use limit entry orders
stops limits...all before you open your position
Its a great package...
but only as good as the man pressing the keys :-)

Good luck

oh also has a free charts and FX news plug in
...oh and quarteed stops!!!

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
Traders craving for volatility this past summer should be quite content with todays gyrating price action. The euro plummeted nearly 100 pips following Chinas surprise rate hike only to reverse all of its losses and even register some additional gains on the back of weak US labor market data. Chinas decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years from 5.31% to 5.58% was the talk of the market. The action was seen as apart of Chinas proactive measures to slow growth. Although the actual affect of the 0.27% hike is, Chinas announcement indicates that they want to ensure a soft landing and to curb inflation. Commodity prices, particularly steel and oil sold off as the market made adjustments to account for falling future demand. Although the decision is not shocking since the government has been taking measures to slow growth for some time now, the timing did catch the market off guard. The latest move is most likely a reflection of Chinas attempts to appease external parties that may be exerting pressure on them to revalue their currency sooner than they may be prepared to do so. The euro recouped all of its losses in reaction to a weaker jobless claims report and help wanted index. Comments from ECB Garganas also helped to boost gains. In his opinion, the rise in the euro has not been brutal and will not have a major effect on growth.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
Two competing factors made a mess of the market just
ahead of the US open. The bomb-shell announcement that China upped its official
interest rate for the first time in nine years sent the market scrambling to try
and discern the forex implications, if any. The first read was that higher
Chinese rates would slow demand for commodities and sent dollar-bloc currencies
into a tailspin. The EUR soon followed, falling to 1.2630 before rebounding to
1.2760/65 as the market quickly rethought its initial take, as characterized the
move as procedural in nature, merely an adjustment between market and official
rates. Helping underpin the EUR on the rebound was the clear message from the
ECB that it is unconcerned about EUR strength, actually welcoming it for its
inflation inhibiting effects. Despite this, there was talk of European centrals
selling in the 1.2750/60 area. A bevy of 1.2850 barriers role off tomorrow, so the potential exists for one
more push to the topside, especially if oil prices firm after a retracement. --

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
To the surprise of many, UK consumer confidence actually improved during the month of October. Sentiment rose from 7 to 6. The market had expected sentiment to remain unchanged or deteriorate further. However according to the report, more consumers expect their finances to improve over the next 12 months and are more comfortable with making big-ticket purchases. The fall in the value of homes, which erodes consumer wealth, has left them unfazed thus far. Nationwide house prices fell 0.4% in the month of October, indicating that the slowdown in the UK housing market is becoming more intense. The market had expected house prices to replicate the 0.2% gain that it incurred the previous month. The slowing housing market is also expected to cause consumer credit to slow.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
11:10 GMT October 28] Pre-weekend US event risks which may impact cable include
today's 12:30GMT US weekly jobless claims, and tomorrow's US advance Q3 GDP.
Initial claims are forecast at 335k, with GDP expected at 4.4%.
Late in the London morning, cable plumbed one-week lows just shy of 1.8190
following China's first interest rate hike in nine years (announced circa
10:30GMT). 1.8190 is a 38.2% Fibo retracement point of the climb from 1.7745
(Oct 6 low) to this week's double-day highs just shy of 1.8450 (Mon & Tue).
Resistance is now pegged at 1.8255 (yesterday's late North American session
low), with 1.8273 (Asian session high), 1.8300, and 1.8350, above.
1.8300 was the approximate early Europe low plumbed after the Nationwide's
06:00GMT disclosure that UK house prices have this month fallen by 0.4% (a 0.2%
rise was predicted). The latest evidence of a cooling UK housing market makes it
ever more certain that the UK base rate will be held at 4.75% through year-end
(the next UK rate verdict is a week today: November 4). Highs just shy of 1.8350
were scaled on the recovery rally from 1.8300. --Robert.Howard@thomson.com

Any guesses as to which way dollar will go today?

Have been scalping Cable Long for a few,now waiting for thev 13.30 GDP figures to come out, might try a long just before.

Nlce one Cloggs. I got in and out for 28

Thanks foale,

Been using the 30 day demo and am also very impressed with FXCM.

David

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
The currency markets have been very active these days with a tremendous amount of important economic data released over the past few weeks, volatility in oil prices and position adjustments ahead of the US elections. This morning, the flash CPI estimate for the month of October in the Eurozone topped estimates at 2.5%. This is far above the central bank's 2.0% target and exceeds the market's 2.3% forecast. The surge was primarily a result of rising oil prices. The ECB expects inflation to fall below their target level next year, but this is also contingent upon the easing of oil prices. Meanwhile industrial and economic confidence in the Eurozone in general improved while the number of unemployed individuals in France decreased by 17k. All eyes next week will be on the US Presidential Elections followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. With the outcome of the Presidential elections still unclear, there could be quite a bit of volatility on Monday and Tuesday with traders either squaring or readjusting positions ahead of the results. There is of course the risk that the election will still be undecided after November 2nd. We can only see this as dollar negative since it raises and prolongs uncertainty, causing some investors to park their money in safer assets.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
[05:03 GMT 29th October] The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2745 after
recovering from the low of 1.2630 that was hit in the wake of the surprise rate
hike by China. The late New York recovery stalled at 1.2765 due to a further
slip in the oil price and this level should be viewed as decent resistance in
the immediate-term. It is also the 61.8 fibo of this week's 1.2840/1.2630
high/low and a break above returns the pressure to the topside. The Asian market
stayed on the sidelines today after the volatile London/NY session and ahead of
a lot of event risk. U.S. GDP, Michigan Sentiment and Chicago PMI are out later
today and with election on Tuesday many traders decided to sit this one out. The
range for the session was 1.2734/56, 11 pips either side of the opening price. The effect of the China rate hike has faded and the risk later today is for
the EUR/USD to move higher. If the U.S. data doesn't surprise to the upside and
if oil doesn't move significantly lower it is unlikely that the market will be
comfortable holding dollars with the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election
and the added threat of terrorist activity.

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
Unsurprisingly, net consumer credit fell once again in the month of September from 1.9B to 1.6B. Along with this week's sharp fall in the home prices, we believe that the Bank of England will stand pat at their monetary policy meeting next week. Movements in the pound should be dictated primarily by dollar developments next week given the importance of non-farm payrolls and the US Presidential elections. Meanwhile Rebecca Riley, a researcher at the NIESR attributed a part of the weakness in inflation to the strength in the British pound.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
[10:25 GMT October 29] There is a raft of potentially market-moving US data due
today: beginning with advance Q3 GDP at 12:30GMT; ensuing with October's final
Michigan Sentiment survey at 13:45GMT; and concluding with October's Chicago PMI
circa 14:00GMT. Advance Q3 GDP is the highlight, and is forecast +4.4%. A better than
expected number could spur some pre-weekend short USD covering, and depress
cable towards 1.8194 (yesterday's post-China rate hike one-week low). Pre-1.8194
support is located at 1.8289 (Asian session low), 1.8273 (Thursday's Asian
session base), and 1.8255 (Wednesday's late North American session low).
Offers at 1.8340/50, inclusive of UK and Asian name interest, kept a lid on
the pair before the 08:30GMT unveiling of a larger-than-expected easing in UK
September consumer credit growth, and a further decline in UK mortgage
approvals. The soft data makes next week's expected unchanged MPC rate verdict
(Nov 4) ever more certain, and adds to the perception that the peak of the UK
rate tightening cycle has already been reached.

Uncomfortable with the manner in which Cable has been rising but the greenback has stayed firm against the other Europeans. Dumped my Cable long and staying out of the market for the moment until we get a clear break one way or the other.

Been watching late-night (early-morning)news and it seems likely the dollar will firm soon when Bush's victory is finally confirmed. But for how long?

Hope it firms soon! I seem to be going in the wrong direction at the moment!

Sue,

The Dollar broke support this morning. You should now be long Cable (ie short USD) above circa 18350 imo.