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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

foale - 28 Oct 2004 23:39 - 1978 of 11056

dscott....use FXCM love it

can use limit entry orders
stops limits...all before you open your position
Its a great package...
but only as good as the man pressing the keys :-)

Good luck

oh also has a free charts and FX news plug in
...oh and quarteed stops!!!

hilary - 29 Oct 2004 07:12 - 1979 of 11056

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
Traders craving for volatility this past summer should be quite content with todays gyrating price action. The euro plummeted nearly 100 pips following Chinas surprise rate hike only to reverse all of its losses and even register some additional gains on the back of weak US labor market data. Chinas decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years from 5.31% to 5.58% was the talk of the market. The action was seen as apart of Chinas proactive measures to slow growth. Although the actual affect of the 0.27% hike is, Chinas announcement indicates that they want to ensure a soft landing and to curb inflation. Commodity prices, particularly steel and oil sold off as the market made adjustments to account for falling future demand. Although the decision is not shocking since the government has been taking measures to slow growth for some time now, the timing did catch the market off guard. The latest move is most likely a reflection of Chinas attempts to appease external parties that may be exerting pressure on them to revalue their currency sooner than they may be prepared to do so. The euro recouped all of its losses in reaction to a weaker jobless claims report and help wanted index. Comments from ECB Garganas also helped to boost gains. In his opinion, the rise in the euro has not been brutal and will not have a major effect on growth.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
Two competing factors made a mess of the market just
ahead of the US open. The bomb-shell announcement that China upped its official
interest rate for the first time in nine years sent the market scrambling to try
and discern the forex implications, if any. The first read was that higher
Chinese rates would slow demand for commodities and sent dollar-bloc currencies
into a tailspin. The EUR soon followed, falling to 1.2630 before rebounding to
1.2760/65 as the market quickly rethought its initial take, as characterized the
move as procedural in nature, merely an adjustment between market and official
rates. Helping underpin the EUR on the rebound was the clear message from the
ECB that it is unconcerned about EUR strength, actually welcoming it for its
inflation inhibiting effects. Despite this, there was talk of European centrals
selling in the 1.2750/60 area. A bevy of 1.2850 barriers role off tomorrow, so the potential exists for one
more push to the topside, especially if oil prices firm after a retracement. --

hilary - 29 Oct 2004 07:13 - 1980 of 11056

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
To the surprise of many, UK consumer confidence actually improved during the month of October. Sentiment rose from 7 to 6. The market had expected sentiment to remain unchanged or deteriorate further. However according to the report, more consumers expect their finances to improve over the next 12 months and are more comfortable with making big-ticket purchases. The fall in the value of homes, which erodes consumer wealth, has left them unfazed thus far. Nationwide house prices fell 0.4% in the month of October, indicating that the slowdown in the UK housing market is becoming more intense. The market had expected house prices to replicate the 0.2% gain that it incurred the previous month. The slowing housing market is also expected to cause consumer credit to slow.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
11:10 GMT October 28] Pre-weekend US event risks which may impact cable include
today's 12:30GMT US weekly jobless claims, and tomorrow's US advance Q3 GDP.
Initial claims are forecast at 335k, with GDP expected at 4.4%.
Late in the London morning, cable plumbed one-week lows just shy of 1.8190
following China's first interest rate hike in nine years (announced circa
10:30GMT). 1.8190 is a 38.2% Fibo retracement point of the climb from 1.7745
(Oct 6 low) to this week's double-day highs just shy of 1.8450 (Mon & Tue).
Resistance is now pegged at 1.8255 (yesterday's late North American session
low), with 1.8273 (Asian session high), 1.8300, and 1.8350, above.
1.8300 was the approximate early Europe low plumbed after the Nationwide's
06:00GMT disclosure that UK house prices have this month fallen by 0.4% (a 0.2%
rise was predicted). The latest evidence of a cooling UK housing market makes it
ever more certain that the UK base rate will be held at 4.75% through year-end
(the next UK rate verdict is a week today: November 4). Highs just shy of 1.8350
were scaled on the recovery rally from 1.8300. --Robert.Howard@thomson.com

Bobcolby - 29 Oct 2004 11:10 - 1981 of 11056

Any guesses as to which way dollar will go today?

Cloggs - 29 Oct 2004 12:52 - 1982 of 11056

Have been scalping Cable Long for a few,now waiting for thev 13.30 GDP figures to come out, might try a long just before.

Bobcolby - 29 Oct 2004 13:51 - 1983 of 11056

Nlce one Cloggs. I got in and out for 28

dscott62 - 29 Oct 2004 18:02 - 1984 of 11056

Thanks foale,

Been using the 30 day demo and am also very impressed with FXCM.

David

hilary - 01 Nov 2004 07:35 - 1985 of 11056

[FXCM EUR/USD COMMENTS]
The currency markets have been very active these days with a tremendous amount of important economic data released over the past few weeks, volatility in oil prices and position adjustments ahead of the US elections. This morning, the flash CPI estimate for the month of October in the Eurozone topped estimates at 2.5%. This is far above the central bank's 2.0% target and exceeds the market's 2.3% forecast. The surge was primarily a result of rising oil prices. The ECB expects inflation to fall below their target level next year, but this is also contingent upon the easing of oil prices. Meanwhile industrial and economic confidence in the Eurozone in general improved while the number of unemployed individuals in France decreased by 17k. All eyes next week will be on the US Presidential Elections followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. With the outcome of the Presidential elections still unclear, there could be quite a bit of volatility on Monday and Tuesday with traders either squaring or readjusting positions ahead of the results. There is of course the risk that the election will still be undecided after November 2nd. We can only see this as dollar negative since it raises and prolongs uncertainty, causing some investors to park their money in safer assets.


[IFRMARKETS EUR/USD COMMENTS]
[05:03 GMT 29th October] The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2745 after
recovering from the low of 1.2630 that was hit in the wake of the surprise rate
hike by China. The late New York recovery stalled at 1.2765 due to a further
slip in the oil price and this level should be viewed as decent resistance in
the immediate-term. It is also the 61.8 fibo of this week's 1.2840/1.2630
high/low and a break above returns the pressure to the topside. The Asian market
stayed on the sidelines today after the volatile London/NY session and ahead of
a lot of event risk. U.S. GDP, Michigan Sentiment and Chicago PMI are out later
today and with election on Tuesday many traders decided to sit this one out. The
range for the session was 1.2734/56, 11 pips either side of the opening price. The effect of the China rate hike has faded and the risk later today is for
the EUR/USD to move higher. If the U.S. data doesn't surprise to the upside and
if oil doesn't move significantly lower it is unlikely that the market will be
comfortable holding dollars with the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election
and the added threat of terrorist activity.

hilary - 01 Nov 2004 07:35 - 1986 of 11056

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
Unsurprisingly, net consumer credit fell once again in the month of September from 1.9B to 1.6B. Along with this week's sharp fall in the home prices, we believe that the Bank of England will stand pat at their monetary policy meeting next week. Movements in the pound should be dictated primarily by dollar developments next week given the importance of non-farm payrolls and the US Presidential elections. Meanwhile Rebecca Riley, a researcher at the NIESR attributed a part of the weakness in inflation to the strength in the British pound.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
[10:25 GMT October 29] There is a raft of potentially market-moving US data due
today: beginning with advance Q3 GDP at 12:30GMT; ensuing with October's final
Michigan Sentiment survey at 13:45GMT; and concluding with October's Chicago PMI
circa 14:00GMT. Advance Q3 GDP is the highlight, and is forecast +4.4%. A better than
expected number could spur some pre-weekend short USD covering, and depress
cable towards 1.8194 (yesterday's post-China rate hike one-week low). Pre-1.8194
support is located at 1.8289 (Asian session low), 1.8273 (Thursday's Asian
session base), and 1.8255 (Wednesday's late North American session low).
Offers at 1.8340/50, inclusive of UK and Asian name interest, kept a lid on
the pair before the 08:30GMT unveiling of a larger-than-expected easing in UK
September consumer credit growth, and a further decline in UK mortgage
approvals. The soft data makes next week's expected unchanged MPC rate verdict
(Nov 4) ever more certain, and adds to the perception that the peak of the UK
rate tightening cycle has already been reached.

hilary - 02 Nov 2004 15:16 - 1987 of 11056

Uncomfortable with the manner in which Cable has been rising but the greenback has stayed firm against the other Europeans. Dumped my Cable long and staying out of the market for the moment until we get a clear break one way or the other.

Maggot - 03 Nov 2004 06:02 - 1988 of 11056

Been watching late-night (early-morning)news and it seems likely the dollar will firm soon when Bush's victory is finally confirmed. But for how long?

Sue 42 - 03 Nov 2004 14:38 - 1989 of 11056

Hope it firms soon! I seem to be going in the wrong direction at the moment!

hilary - 03 Nov 2004 14:41 - 1990 of 11056

Sue,

The Dollar broke support this morning. You should now be long Cable (ie short USD) above circa 18350 imo.

hilary - 03 Nov 2004 14:43 - 1991 of 11056

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar remained higher against the Japanese yen in U.S. trading Wednesday, with preliminary returns from the presidential election tipped toward incumbent President George Bush, although the final outcome may still be a week or so away.

U.S. stocks were expected to move higher as Bush emerged the probable winner, boosting demand from foreigners for the dollars needed to place U.S. equity investments.

The dollar had been higher against the euro, but had since given ground to Europe's shared currency. The buck also halved its gain against the yen.

'The pre-election bearish sentiment seems to have reasserted itself on the dollar amid deficit concerns and expectations that the reelected Bush administration will let the dollar soften,' said Ronald Simpson, currency analyst with Action Economics.

The dollar was quoted at 106.48 yen, up 0.4 percent from late U.S. trading. A holiday in Japan kept volume light in Asian trading.

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.2757. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to $.18436.

Against its Swiss counterpart, the dollar edged down 0.1 percent to 1.2013 francs.

White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said Wednesday morning that President Bush has secured the Electoral College votes needed. Democratic challenger John Kerry's campaign has said it will await the counting of provisional ballots in the crucial swing state of Ohio.

The dollar was supported overnight as global financial markets grew more confident this year's election, despite its closeness, would be resolved more quickly than in 2000. Worries about a repeat of the prolonged recounting process in the last election have weighed on the dollar in recent sessions.

The key words were 'slight' and 'might,' said James D. Malcolm, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank in Singapore.

'We might -- might -- get a resolution sooner rather than later, which is giving the dollar a slight -- slight -- lift,' Malcolm said earlier in the trading day. 'In the meantime, everybody is watching the polls, and there's very little appetite to take risk. Volume is fairly low, with not much in the way of directional bets.'

For the euro, '$1.2630 is going to be an important test level,' said Malcolm, as the European currency's recent low was $1.2628. 'If we can trade below that, it will take out some support in the market.'

Bear Stearns currency strategist Steve Barrow said the election outcome is not really important for the dollar's long-term outlook, and therefore declines will likely resume shortly.

'One other issue to bear in mind is that the prospect of a Bush victory has already lifted oil prices sharply, and this could be reflected in some other commodities as well, helping commodity currencies and so limiting any dollar rally,' Barrow said.

J.P. Morgan currency strategist Yen Ping Ho said in a research note Wednesday, said that once the election outcome is decided, focus will switch to the upside risks of non-farm payroll data on Friday.

The latest report is expected to show the U.S. economy added 176,000 jobs last month, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

Robb - 03 Nov 2004 14:48 - 1992 of 11056

Sue 42 - 03 Nov 2004 16:30 - 1993 of 11056

hilary - thanks.

hilary - 04 Nov 2004 06:36 - 1994 of 11056

No fxcm???????????????????

Sue 42 - 04 Nov 2004 09:01 - 1995 of 11056

are all the strategies for the day before? they all seem to be dated 3erd Nov???

hilary - 04 Nov 2004 09:25 - 1996 of 11056

They don't normally appear until mid-morning, Sue. John Hardy at Saxo probably gives the best precis imo shortly after 9am.

Sue 42 - 04 Nov 2004 09:44 - 1997 of 11056

thanks hilary.
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