Sharesure, after your comments regarding Chaco potentially being the next Cairn Energy I decided to take a look back at the Cairn Energy news flow from 2003/2004 to see how they developed into a FTSE 100 company.
The first real sp moving news in that year was the oil discovery in Rajasthan:
News flow on 19/1/04
Oil exploration group Cairn Energy PLC announced a
"significant" onshore oil discovery in Rajasthan that initial estimates suggest
has reserves of 50-200 mln barrels.
Cairn Energy PLC's shares soared 41 pct, adding almost 230
mln stg to its market value, as the exploration and production group revealed it
had made a significant oil strike in western India.
Cairn estimates that its desert exploration well N-B-1, which is 60 km north
of Saraswati, Rajasthan, has reserves of 50-200 mln barrels, which could make it
one of the biggest discoveries of the year.
"Whilst further evaluation and appraisal is required I am confident that
this discovery in isolation has the potential to transform the value of Cairn's
portfolio," said chief executive Bill Gammell.
Analysts said the figure quoted by the company is quite conservative, though
nevertheless it has had a dramatic effect on valuations of the company, which
have shot up. The group owns 70 pct of the field
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So back in 2004 when the oil price was around $40-50pb the market added
230mln to the market cap value of Cairn that day due to a 50-200mln barrel oil find of which Cairn had 70%. (35-140m Barrels)
So doing some calculations we see that the market added between
1.60 and 6.50 per barrel of oil to Cairns Market cap. (Using those find values of between 35-140m)
How does this compare to Chaco?
It is look more and more likely that Chaco have been successful in obtaining 55% of the Primavera field rumoured to contain
400mln barrels (55% of 400 = 220mln for Chaco)
Using market reaction to Cairn's find as a guide for Chaco. We could get a Chaco market revaluation due to Primavera of between
352m(1.6x220m) and
1430m (6.5x220m)
73p-300p.
The Cairn find was at a more advanced stage at that point than Chaco is now with Primavera and the figures they released were initial estimates based on tests. But it gives us some idea of the value placed on oil reserves and once Chaco secures Primavera we can look forward to the results of tests on that block.
Cairn also were famed for understating their reserves. Later that year Rajasthan was found to contain over
2bln barrels of oil. The price was adjusted accordingly. With other fields and finds Cairns market cap grew to where it stands today which is
3,003m
Chaco have already admitted on their
website that Alea may well be very understated.
"In summary, there is excellent upside possibilty for substantially higher reserves"
Perhaps now others can see the potential that people like Sharesure, Stewart, Alfred and I see in this share.
I am not suggesting that we will see those superb price lifts immediately. But when we start to get some drilling reports and seisemic data from Alea and RNS permitting Primavera, then if past market reaction to similar information is anything to go by then those invested in Chaco now are looking to be in a very powerful position indeed.