The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

Hi, bos, not surprised to see you here! Blackpool is a bit far - how about Eastbourne? Now, I know that SEO will be up, up and away-ay-ay.... , but I have this sneaking feeling that you may be in for a surprise; no sneak previews, though! Nor have I given up myself - clue! clue! Eric

hi guys
bosley, wait until mdw gets some big orders confirmed and u will see a TGV (FRENCH FAST TRAIN) overtaking you at a high speed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
regards all

seb

Hi All, Glad to see I'm still hanging in there-thought PAY was about to shoot up but it was only a flicker! DGM will recover on results day I hope-some profit taking going on there and YOO is still in the starting blocks but I'm confident--good old NLR what can I say about that one it's a star! Eric thanks for the sleek filly comment it's made my day--even if it was the Rioja talking! At the moment I feel more like a broken down nag but maybe a few months down the line I'll be jumping around!
With ref to your daughters house purchase Eric---do you take your profits and pay the Cap gains tax?? Thanks to NLR I could be in that happy position this year but am reluctant to hand over a chunk of my gains to Blair & co. so far I'm sitting wondering whether to wait out 2 years to only have to pay 10% CGT
but could lose the lot!! decisions ! decisions! have a good weekend all.

Good to hear from you, moneyplus. Glad you are resisiting the impulse to jump around - all in due time. The operation is debilitating enough in itself; it is 8 days since Mary's gallstone operation and she is taking things sensibly a step at a time; hubs covering himself with glory!

Re CGT, I have tax losses to bring forward from a business venture although at the rpesent rate I will use those up in the next year or two. If not available, better to wait the 2 years unless you are doubtful about the investment. Certainly worth holding shares like ASC, NLR and SEO. Probably a good discipline to stop you selling too many. A disadvantage of CFDs is that you are not buying a stake in the company so the 2 year protection won't apply (I assume). Its probably even worth borrowing the money rather than forking out 30% of profits if you want to use the funds. Well done, though, on the Challenge performance - impressive and could get better!

Eric

i feel a delia moment coming on.........
where are you???????? com'on. lets be 'aving you!!!!!!!

Hi all...
another good week for many.Well done
EW... here's a bit on AEN taken from the cazenove broker note

AEN has been one of the commodity boom success stories. At the centre of its performance lies the potentially world class Phulbari coal asset.
The deposit apppears to have a combination of three factors thatmakeitunique. First,a c. 40m seamwhich should result in bottomquartilecash costs.Second, high quality bituminous coal marketable to both the thermaland metallurgicalmarkets.Finally the deposit is less than 50km away fromIndia, with itsw high growth steel and power generation industries. It is obviously capable in assisting with the development of Bangladesh's power capacity.
The company's share price performance since listing on AIM in April 2004 has been very strong. Yet according to our estimates, the stock is still trading at a significant discount to our base case NPV.
Using conservative coal price estimates some 40% below spot prices, we arrive at a pre- diluted NPV of 13.81.Making some basic assumptions on equity issuance, we arrive at a post diluted NPV of 11.30, c.71% above the current share price...(At the time was 6.53)We calculate that by the time the mine comes on stream in H2 2007, the pre diluted NPV should have nearly doubled to 26.60 per share or 21.80 post dilution. All this will not be lost on predatory companies either in the steel or mining sector which are both seeing rapid asset price inflation.
Management's approach to the development of this mine has been rigorous. The company is using top flight consultants at all levels of the project including independent assessment of the coal quality. With coal prices also seemingly set firm, we intiate cover with an outperform (released 3 march 2005)

Good job Eric as ever.

Up 27% and still lying eighth !!!! If it wasn't for that pesky SEO

MOB results out this week, they should be great.

WNN results out later in the month, which should illustrate how seriously undervalued this company is.

capa

Thanks for the hard work Eric. Anyone got a spare min check out ITR have posted on the thread.

Apologies! No portfolio evaluation this weekend. Down in Cornwall on holiday from Friday with grandchildren enough to keep me busy, plus some golf, of course, plus eating and wine, of course. Next evaluation over Easter Weekend which seems a good time for the resurrection of some portfolios and hopefully not the death of others! Take a look at CFP, which seemed to defeat jgt on his chart analysis, being just too small for meaningful charts. Will be a penny share before too long, but still only 0.43p - a good thread. I see Evil is taking on NLR, with some success so far.

Decent moves from CASH, EPD, PDX, TAD and WNN; two good winners for capa, shame about NLR! I'm sure it would be helpful for posts to be made here on some of main movers; but don't forget CFP!

Eric

I can't believe that ASOS is still getting all this "thread time". I bought ASOS when they were 29p (ie I was way too late), having watched them (embarrasingly) from about 12p, and I sold around 54 to 57p. With respect, most of you guys were far too late on the story, and I find it amazing that you are all so keen.

It is now just an ordinary share that went well past it's peak. Instead of trying to squeeze some extra mileage out of something that clearly peaked some time ago, and is therefore likely to lose you money if you invest in it, surely you should be looking for the new ASOS and accept that you missed the boat first time around. I realise that this is tough talk - but let's get real!!

rgrds
gk

Eric, enjoy your holiday.

Yes CASH and WNN doing very nicely over the last couple of days. WNN motoring again first thing today in preparation for the results on Monday which incidentally is the day of MOBs results also.

CASH are very lowly rated and only a matter of time before they breach 1.50 imo, recent announcements of major holdings has given them a push in that direction.

WNN are growing fast and at a discount to the sector, serious re-rating to come here I reckon.

Evil shorting NLR has certainly not helped their share price but does provide a good buying opportunity if it falls much further.

good luck everyone

capa

Second ASOS Challenge Portfolio

A drop of 3% in the portfolio voer the two weeks which generally follows the small-cap market with profit taking before the tax year end. SEO has stretched its lead following announcement of the ASDA contract and the major pursuers, HCEG, NLR and BGT all falling away. ASC fell to last place and there were significant fallers down the list.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 18.125 82813 152.1 6.6__ BBSSUUW(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 102.75 8153_ 63.1_ -14.7 O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 600___ 30480 52.1_ -20.6 CDMM(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.41__ 14637 46.4_ 5.1__ WY(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 177.5_ 13597 36.0_ -14.5 JJ(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 171.5_ 6689_ 33.7_ 6.2__ B(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 112.5_ 6469_ 29.3_ -8.9_ K(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 172.5_ 6339_ 26.8_ -2.5_ A(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.375 6286_ 25.9_ -2.7_ T(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.875 24063 20.3_ 5.4__ BEMS(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 271.5_ 5878_ 17.7_ -13.4 C(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 942.5_ 5796_ 16.2_ 0.0__ P(151)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 807.5_ 5790_ 15.8_ -10.3 J
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 71.625 11532 15.5_ 1.6__ OO(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 97.5__ 5753_ 15.0_ 4.8__ K(137)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 532.5_ 5698_ 14.2_ -1.4_ P(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 242.0_ 11374 13.9_ 0.0__ GH(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 365.5_ 5574_ 11.6_ -4.4_ P(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 287.5_ 5146_ 7.1__ 12.5_ C
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 270___ 5225_ 4.5__ 10.9_ G(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 23.5__ 26085 4.4__ -1.1_ LLLLR(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 167.5_ 5159_ 3.2__ -1.2_ G(173)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 13____ 5148_ 3.0__ -13.3 I(137)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 52.5__ 5148_ 2.9__ 7.1__ I(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 122.5_ 10186 1.9__ -8.2_ EE(151)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 255___ 9945_ -0.5_ -4.7_ DE(173)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 190.5_ 4972_ -0.5_ -14.4 G(151)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 653.5_ 9803_ -2.1_ -6.2_ DP(151)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 52____ 4836_ -3.3_ -5.5_ R(177)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 14.375 4729_ -5.4_ -4.2_ O(151)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 47____ 18612 -6.9_ 0.0__ AIKK(173)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 62.5__ 9294_ -7.1_ -13.2 TT(137)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 234.5_ 4584_ -8.3_ -10.0 M(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 114.5_ 18286 -8.6_ 2.7__ AIRR(173)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 8.25__ 20419 -9.2_ -9.6_ JSVV(137)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 208.5_ 4514_ -9.7_ 11.2_ A(177)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 127.5_ 4482_ -10.4 1.2__ C(173)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.0___ 7700_ -10.4 -1.8_ HH
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 7.5___ 4313_ -13.7 -4.8_ Y(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 10____ 4045_ -14.0 0.0__ D
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 9.75__ 4144_ -17.0 -14.3 V(173)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.725_ 4143_ -17.1 -12.1 Y(173)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 13____ 8190_ -18.1 -10.3 UU(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 4.150_ 3559_ -21.8 -24.5 W
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 48____ 3854_ -22.9 -6.3_ H(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 5.5___ 3696_ -26.1 -2.2_ V(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 14.1__ 7444_ -26.1 -2.6_ TW
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.75__ 3598_ -28.0 1.9__ Y(177)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 53.5__ 13632 -31.8 -7.0_ ZZZZ(177)
totals__________________ 501806.9 14.0_ -3.5
small-cap___ 2891.87______ 2925.3 1.2__ -1.8

With no major risers during the period, pride of place goes to SEO. The ASDA deal promises more to come: I have attemtped a projection on the bb which suggests that 1 is attainable within the year.

HCEG and BGT have come back, probably just profit-taking. Evil Knievel is shorting NLR; his logic appears to be that it is really a commodity share and will invite competition. If that's the case, presumably that is what banks like HSBC are - there's nothing like establishing market leadership in any market. At the top of the table, CFP and AGL are edging ahead and appear to have significant potential.

In some cases the spread has widened significantly ahead of the holidays; if over 20% I have taken the last trade quoted spread. The spread in PMD has widened to 68.75% with an apology of a bid which I have ignored. Looking more closely, the company is under threat from Barclays Bank so caution is needed.

ASC continues to be shorted by Evil and his gremlins; they could be put to flight by better trading news in April. However, the new warehouse won't be on line until May so it may be another quarter before it gets motoring again. However, ASC would be third favourite in my book for an investment made now, maturing at the end of the year, after SEO and CFP.

B 89.6 P 9.8 Y -3.1
S 78.8 D 7.7 R -4.0
U 39.9 K 7.6 T -6.8
W 39.4 E 5.9 H -13.8
M 29.2 G 5.2 V -15.4
O 22.1 L 4.3 Z -31.8
J 19.6 A 0.4
C 15.6 I -2.4

The double holders in SEO fill the first three places: bosley, seb and markus with the single holder, yours truly, in fourth. The other leading contenders have all fallen back with NLR, HCEG and BGT. Is it all over? Not until the final putt is holed!

Eric

need i say it?????

Next time Bos we'll all follow you---champion!

moneyplus: flattery gets you a long way, so they say. He may be a champion guy but he is not yet champion in this epic battle. Your a dark filly yourself (I recall you rather liked that description!) - I hope you are surmounting life's hurdles with alacrity!

Eric

I wonder if anyone else entered the investaquest competition that I drew attention to in an early post. Just caught up with it and surprised at my portfolio which would have been quite different if I was starting now! You can change holdings at any time but I have caught one or two colds. Slightly positive overall but lagging behind the 'bos of investaquest' - still SEO and CFP are doing me proud!

Eric

Could I sell my 5K of HCEG and buy 5K of CTT please.

Sorry optomistic but we had the last chance for switching on 25th Feb - to save me work to be honest.

Interested to see you taking profits in HCEG which has been one of the best performers; do you see the recent growth as primarily market hype in Ebiox? You clearly see scope for recovery in CTT although the charts look a bit dire. I see there is a bb without posts!

Eric

That's OK then Eric stick with what I've got then.
Yes Eric not much interest on here for CTT, the charts could rapidly change from here I think. My belief is that the fall out from the new accounting standards has been over done. As for HCEG it could take a longer than we all thought for Ebiox to be taken up with the health authorities, they seem reluctant to change from the alcohol based product they use at present.
Not unlikely I think that they have large stocks bought in at discount price and cannot see their way clear to dumping them in favour of buying another product however efficient it is in killing the MRSA bug.

opto: There appear to be a number of stocks progressing more slowly than hoped because of the difficulty in selling to the NHS, including MDW and MLS as well as HCEG. In hospital recently, my wife had to give the doctor a wee chat about washing of hands! As I recall, much of HCEG revenue is in US and they may get the major growth there in the short-term. Will have a look at CTT.